Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic

Daily tennis tips: US Open best bets for Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev

Andy Schooler previews Sunday night’s US Open men’s singles final between Daniil Medvedev and his outright tournament pick, Novak Djokovic.

Tennis betting tips: US Open, Sunday September 10

1pt Novak Djokovic to beat Daniil Medvedev and both players to win a set at 6/4 (BoyleSports)

1pt Djokovic to serve over 4.5 aces at 9/10 (BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev (2100 BST)

Coco Gauff delivered for our outright picks in the women’s singles on Saturday; now Novak Djokovic bids to land the double.

He’s the favourite here at 4/9 but there’s no doubt Daniil Medvedev has more than a puncher’s chance.

Djokovic has proved more vulnerable at Flushing Meadows than Melbourne or Wimbledon over the years – he has won ‘only’ three US Open titles and lost in the final on six occasions.

One of those defeats came at the hands of Medvedev two years ago, a match which cost Djokovic tennis’ Holy Grail, the Grand Slam of all four major titles.

That’s certainly a tick in the mental box for the Russian, although he’ll need it. Djokovic is one of the very best in that department, a man able to extract himself from awkward situations when required.

This time there isn’t the huge pressure of having the Slam feat at stake – Djokovic admitted it had weighed heavily on his shoulders – although he will be looking to equal the all-time men and women’s record of 24 Grand Slam singles titles, currently held by Margaret Court.

As predicted, he’s largely cruised through the bottom half of the draw, the one struggle coming when the Serb found himself two sets down to his compatriot, Laslo Djere.

But again, Djokovic showed how tough it is to win three sets against him by fighting back. From then on, it’s been plain sailing to this final.

Some will suggest he could be undercooked but we’ve seen time and again that the incoming world number one has been able to find his best tennis in the biggest matches and I expect no different here.

He may need it.

Medvedev has been in impressive form and he won’t be too fazed by facing Djokovic – not too many players have five career wins against the Serb, who leads the head-to-head 9-5.

While Medvedev has spent more time than his opponent on court in New York, the figure (43 minutes) is not really significant.

He’s dropped three sets in reaching this point but fended off Andrey Rublev fairly easily in the quarter-finals before taking out top seed Carlos Alcaraz in the semis in four sets.

Medvedev gave himself a “12 out of 10” rating for that display but you have to wonder whether he can repeat it here.

Looking at the numbers, Alcaraz had chances but he converted only one of the nine break points he created. Expect Djokovic to be more ruthless.

Also, Medvedev won 82% of the points behind his first serve but his career figure in his series with Djokovic is down at 69% (for the record, Djokovic’s is 73%).

When it comes to points won on second serve, Medvedev will also need a good day.

He actually has the edge in their previous matches, winning 49% of points behind his second deal to Djokovic’s 47%.

However, over the past fortnight, this is an area where he’s struggled, winning only 44% of the points. Djokovic’s equivalent figure is 55%, a considerable difference.

In short, I expect Djokovic to trouble Medvedev more than Alcaraz did for the majority of that semi-final.

Both men are strong defensively so expect some lengthy rallies but I simply can’t look beyond Djokovic given what we’ve seen from him in such matches before.

Yes, Medvedev is capable of winning this but he’ll need to be at his peak.

The way I’m approaching this form a betting point of view is to take into account that capability and thus back Djokovic to win and both players to win a set.

That works out as a 6/4 shot.

In the sub-markets, the bet I like is an aces one.

Djokovic has served 5+ in five of his last six matches against Medvedev, the majority of which have been best-of-three contests, while he’s managed to land this bet in every round so far in New York.

OK, the court isn’t the fastest but the need to go for the lines will be higher here, while Medvedev’s penchant for standing deep to return can open up angles further up the court for Djokovic to hit.

Let’s try this in a bid to end the tournament on a winning note.

Posted at 1019 BST on 10/09/23

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