Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for the first round of the Cincinnati Open – the latest ATP Masters 1000 event starts on Thursday.
Tennis tips: Cincinnati Open
1pt Adrian Mannarino to beat Denis Shapovalov at 6/4 (bet365)
1pt David Merida to beat Marin Cilic at evens (bet365)
Denis Shapovalov v Adrian Mannarino
- Thursday, 15:00 BST
Mannarino could represent a spot of value here.
I’ve written often that the Frenchman’s best results have usually come in quick conditions and that’s what we usually get in Cincinnati.
Yes, last year’s change to Har-Tru courts may have slowed things a little but the numbers still made this one of the faster events of the 2025 season.
Mannarino has certainly enjoyed his visits to Ohio where he’s reached at least the last 16 in three of his last five main-draw appearances, beating the likes of Tommy Paul, Tomas Machac and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
And this year he arrives with confidence raised by an impressive victory over Learner Tien in Washington where his lefty serve did not have to face a break point.
Admittedly, Shapovalov did make the final in Los Cabos recently but he beat just one player in the world’s top 90 during that run and, in any case, those Solflex courts are much slower than the Har-Tru ones here.
Outside of Los Cabos, Shapovalov has won just one of his last nine matches, while the Canadian is just 6-6 in Cincinnati over the years.
In addition, he arrives here having been forced to retire from his most recent match in Montreal.
In short, plenty to like about MANNARINO here at a best price of 6/4.
David Merida v Marin Cilic
- Thursday, 15:00 BST
Rain looks set to play its part in the first round which is a little concerning in the sense that conditions may be slowed down a bit.
However, if that’s the case it should play into the hands of MERIDA, who was a big success story in Montreal last week where he converted his excellent clay results this season – including a 40/1 winner for this column in Umag - onto the hardcourts.
He beat the likes of Ugo Humbert, Alex Michelsen and Tallon Griekspoor en route to the quarter-finals and, as long as it’s not too quick, I’d expect him to cause veteran Cilic some problems given how well he’s been striking the ball.
The Croatian won this title 10 years ago but needed a wild card to get into the draw this year. He’s won just five of his last 13 matches and I’m not convinced he warrants being the favourite in this match-up.
Posted 22:35 BST on 12/08/2026
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