Andy Schooler previews the opening day’s play of the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals, one which features US and French Open champion Carlos Alcaraz.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals
2pts Ben Shelton to serve 10+ aces v Alex Zverev at 5/6 (bet365)
1pt Zverev to beat Shelton 2-0 at 7/4 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
0.5pt Zverev to serve 10+ aces v Shelton at 9/4 (bet365, Betfred)
1pt Carlos Alcaraz to beat Alex de Minaur 2-0 at 19/20 (William Hill)
Carlos Alcaraz v Alex de Minaur (1300 GMT)
I suggested in my doomed-before-the-tournament-started outright preview that Alcaraz would be worth taking on in Turin and I stand by that view.
However, this may not be the match to oppose him in.
The Spaniard leads the head-to-head record 4-0, with two of those matches coming this season, including one on indoor hard.
That came in the Rotterdam final in February when Alcaraz captured his one and only indoor title thanks to a three-set victory.
However, the conditions in Rotterdam have long been much slower than those in Turin where the GreenSet court is expected to play faster than your average hardcourt.
That should favour Alcaraz, who beat De Minaur without dropping serve when they met on the slick grass of Queen’s Club in 2023.
I could have been brave and doubled-down on my theory that Alcaraz is vulnerable in these conditions at this time of year but, frankly, I don’t see De Minaur – around 5/2 for victory – being the one to capitalise.
While I’ve made plenty of Alcaraz’s lack of indoor titles, he still has more than De Minaur, who is yet to triumph anywhere beneath a roof.
He’s also been found largely wanting against the game’s elite throughout his career and he arrives at this match on a run of one win in 16 against top-10 opponents.
He’ll run all day and chase down plenty of balls but the extra of aggression from Alcaraz should win the day here and I’ll back him to win in straight sets, albeit to small stakes, at just shy of evens.
Alex Zverev v Ben Shelton (1930 GMT)
We have another 4-0 head-to-head for Sunday’s evening match, one which suggests Zverev will emerge victorious.
He’s now won the last eight sets against Shelton, whose only ‘success’ came in the very first one the pair played. A look at the detail shows Shelton hasn’t broken the Zverev serve since that initial set with Zverev up 8-1 in breaks across their series.
Essentially, Shelton hasn’t been able to return serve as well as Zverev and I’m not convinced the pattern changes here.
Shelton has only won three of his six matches since departing the US Open injured and while his big serve should suit the conditions, the rest of his game is below the level of the rest of this field.
Focus in on return and he’s seventh of the eight in terms of first-serve points won and last for second-serve points won.
Admittedly, it’s bit of a concern that Zverev suffered an ankle injury in Paris (where he made the semis) just over a week ago. However, he had it quickly checked out back in Germany and was actually an early arrival in Turin where he hasn’t looked troubled in practice.
Therefore I’m prepared to back him to continue his dominance of this match up with 7/4 about a straight-sets win making some appeal.
However, my best bet in this match involves the Shelton serve.
While Zverev has found the key to unpick it, the American’s delivery has still produced plenty of aces.
Take out their claycourt meeting and Shelton’s ace tallies have been 12-21-14. Only the last of those matches went to a third set.
With the slight altitude and usually fast court in Turin, I’d expect him to hit similar numbers and so I’m surprised to see 10+ aces being offered at 5/6. 15+ at 3/1 may be worth a try for those seeking a bigger price.
Zverev for 10+ aces is also worth a dart. He’s managed this in eight of his previous 12 matches in Turin, while he’s hit double figures in two of those three non-clay meetings with Shelton.
Posted at 2205 GMT on 08/11/25
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