Jon Newcombe is expecting another close finish in Saturday night's World Cup final between New Zealand and South Africa in Paris.
Rugby union betting tips: Saturday October 28
New Zealand v South Africa
- Saturday, 2000 BST
2pts South Africa to win at 13/10 (General)
2pts under 3.5 tries at 2/1 (Boylesports)
1pt New Zealand/South Africa HT/FT at 9/1 (Betfred)
1pt Mark Tele’a first try-scorer at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Bongi Mbonambi anytime try-scorer at 7/2 (Spreadex)
In working out who is going to win Saturday’s World Cup final you cannot ignore what happened when South Africa and New Zealand last met back in August at Twickenham.
Both teams for this Saturday’s showpiece are stacked with caps and very similar to those that took to the pitch that evening, for a match that ended in a record 35-7 win for the Springboks.
While this contest promises to be much tighter altogether – that’s normally the nature of finals rugby – South Africa’s ability to defend most of what the All Blacks threw at them in south-west London, and their dominance in the scrum, points to a historic fourth title for the Boks, despite them going into the match as underdogs.
Yes, picking a 7-1 split on the bench could be seen as a bit of a gamble, especially as there is no cover for Faf de Klerk at scrum-half but how many times have Rassie Erasmus and his sidekick, Jacques Nienaber, proved everyone wrong? They will know exactly what they are doing.
When push comes to shove, as with all big rugby matches this will be won, and lost, up front. New Zealand conceded five scrum penalties against South Africa in the final World Cup warm-up fixture and the Springboks have had opponents on toast in this vital area of the game ever since.
England’s replacement props found that our to their cost in the semi-final, and if Handre Pollard hadn’t shown nerves of steel to knock over a last-gasp, match-winning, long-range penalty, Ox Nché would surely have become the first prop to be named Player of the Match at this tournament.
Nché and Vincent Koch have to settle for a place in South Africa’s Bomb Squad once again, with Steven Kitshoff and Frans Malherbe the chosen starters at prop. But they will no doubt have an important role to play once they inevitably come on around the 50-minute mark.
By that stage, we reckon South Africa might be behind – but only just. New Zealand have been one of the fastest starters at this tournament and we reckon they’ll break South Africa’s incredible record of never had a try scored against them in a World Cup final. At this tournament they have let in seven but only three in what you would describe as meaningful matches.
It would be fitting if it was Mark Tele’a that got over the line for the first of what should be very few tries scored in the final – we’re going to go for under four. Tele’a was the scorer of the first try at this tournament some 50 days ago and, this week, was nominated as one of World Rugby’s Breakthrough Players of the Year.
As solid as South Africa’s defence is, New Zealand are surely too clinical and attacking side not to breach their line at least once, and it is about time Tele’a got a share of the tries Will Jordan has been getting on the other side of the pitch. 11/1 from Sky Bet appears on the generous side.
South Africa won’t be far away though, and if the All Blacks do strike first, the Springboks won't fazed if they are behind at the break, as they have come from behind to win the last two matches at this tournament while trailing at half-time, overcoming a three-point deficit in the quarter-final against France and double that in the semi-final against England. So New Zealand-South Africa in the HT/FT betting has plenty of appeal. Betfred have gone out on a limb a bit in offering 9/1, when some rival bookmakers only quote 15/2.
If Pollard doesn’t monopolise the points-scoring for South Africa entirely, Bongi Mbonambi wouldn’t be a bad bet as an anytime try-scorer. The 7/2 shot has had a disrupted build-up after being investigated by World Rugby for the use of discriminatory language against England, a case which was dropped due to insufficient evidence, and would like nothing more than to cancel out the white noise and enter his name into the record books.
Two of South Africa’s four tries against the All Blacks in August came from a maul and with Mbonambi likely to be on the pitch for a significant period of time with only Deon Fourie as back-up at hooker, he’s probably going to have one or two chances to latch onto the back of a lineout drive.
As Springboks head coach Nienaber pointed out this week, the game now is unrecognisable in many ways to how it was played in the only previous Springboks-All Blacks World Cup final – mentioning how a leather ball was used back in 1995 and there was no lifting in the lineout – but we believe one similarity will be the result, a narrow win for South Africa. Maybe not quite as close, and maybe not after extra-time, but South Africa’s tactical acumen appears superior, they are more robust up front and have a match-winning kicker, so we take them to edge it by around five points.
Posted at 1400 BST on 27/10/23
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.