Don't expect too many fireworks when England and Argentina face off in the World Cup bronze medal decider on Friday night, writes Jon Newcombe.
Rugby union betting tips: Friday October 27
England v Argentina
- Friday, 2000 BST
3pts England (-4) on first-half handicap at evens (General)
2pts Argentina under 19.5 points at 20/21 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt England penalty first-scoring play at 15/8 (Boylesports)
1pt under 45 match points at 15/13 (Vbet)
1pt more than one card at 11/10 (William Hill)
1pt Joe Marchant anytime try-scorer at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Other than being a contest between two poor attacking teams, there’s nothing black and white about this World Cup bronze medal decider, which, after all the furore of what was and wasn’t said between Bongi Mbonambi and Tom Curry, who is set to win his 50th cap, is probably not such a bad thing.
Neither team would have realistically expected to have made it to the final given their results pre-tournament but with the way the draw was made, the semi-finals were always a possibility, and privately, third place this year is likely to come with more satisfaction than in tournaments gone by when it was simply the game that no one wanted to be involved in.
Success on Friday night would something tangible for Steve Borthwick to hang his hat on and given the way England comfortably defended their line in the opening Pool D encounter with Argentina, it’s hard not to favour them, although on occasions such as these, when it is impossible to know what emotional state the respective teams will be in, any match betting tips come with a tinge of caution.
Mateo Carreras’ individual brilliance aside – Argentina have been found wanting when it comes to breaking through in attack. For all their admirable effort against the All Blacks, they could not make their share of possession and territory nor phases of play count and they may have to rely heavily again on Emiliano Boffelli’s boot to keep the scoreboard ticking over. Very nearly half of Argentina’s points against England at all World Cups have come from penalties (45%), and it’s a trend we can see continuing.
Normally, you’d envisage this as a free-for-all-style contest, with teams not really having anything to lose, but England are not like that, they will play the way they want to play, and that’s that, so we could be in for a low-scoring match.
England beat Argentina by 17 points without scoring a try way back on 9 September, and while we expect them to get over the line this time around, a glut of tries is unlikely, so under on the tries market is worth a play. England and Argentina have been involved in three bronze medal matches between them, and on each occasion the aggregate number of points was under 45. While the three matches referee Nic Berry has presided over in this tournament have yielded an average a fraction less than that, too, so under 45 points is our recommendation.
Boffelli and England captain Owen Farrell are in with an outside chance of overhauling our pre-tournament pick Thomas Ramos, to be top tournament points-scorer, and those two more than any others, are likely to have a big say in the outcome as, like Los Pumas, England either lack the will, or don’t have the game plan, to make much headway in attack. Ante-post Ramos backers be warned, Farrell likes playing Los Pumas; he averages 13.5 points per game across his four previous Tests against them and will want to send off his soon-to-be-retired, international half-back partner Ben Youngs, as a winner.
It was only in the last few minutes of the semi-final against South Africa that England’s play moved much beyond the first receiver, and they ended the match without a single line break to their name. Tellingly, England have scored 44% of their points at RWC 2023 from the boot, with 14 conversions, a competition-high 15 penalty goals and four drop goals, so it makes sense to go for an England penalty to be the first-scoring play, and for them to slowly build on that as they did in Marseille when George was at 10.
England have never conceded a first-half try against Argentina at a World Cup, conceding on average just three points per game in the opening 40 minutes of their past four meetings, while Argentina have not scored a first-half try since Santiago Chocobares crossed in the second minute of their final pool clash with Chile, so backing England on the first-half handicap makes a lot of sense.
As for try-scorer picks, recalled winger Henry Arundell will be itching to add to the five tries he got on his one and only appearance against Chile, and threaten our tournament top try-scorer selection Will Jordan by clawing back the three-try deficit between them. However, you have to question will he get enough ball against South American opponents a level or two up from Los Condores so our preference would be a player like Joe Marchant, who is playing outside-centre but often pops up on the wing, to take advantage of any cross-field kicks. His aerial ability makes him a real threat there and with Carreras being far from the tallest winger in the world, England will look to the skies, again, as their best form of attack.
It’s on the cards, if you can excuse the pun, for one of the teams, if not both, to have players either sin-binned or sent off. Reds have been issued in each of the last two RWC meetings involving England and Argentina, and Berry has not been averse to reaching inside his pocket, sending five players in three matches to the sin-bin.
Posted at 1355 BST on 26/10/23
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