Our star racing tipster Ben Linfoot, fresh from a 12/1 success in last week's Sky Bet Chase, has three Value Bet selections for Saturday's action at Sandown and Wetherby .
Value Bet Sandown Wetherby
1pt win Dream Bolt at 20/1 1.15 Sandown
1pt win The Dutchman at 9/1 2.45 Wetherby
1pt e.w Ballyculla at 33/1 3.00 Sandown
There’s already heavy patches in places on the home straight of the Sandown hurdles course and there’s a bit more rain forecast, too. It’s likely to be very testing at the Esher course come Saturday afternoon.
We know Sandown is a stiff track anyway thanks to the long climb up the hill to the winning post, but getting home is going to be even harder work than usual this weekend. It’s a key factor to bear in mind when calculating your bets.
It shouldn’t cause the market principals in the small-field feature action many problems, though. Buveur D’Air is well equipped to deal with this sort of ground ahead of his hurdling return, while it shouldn’t inconvenience anything in the Scilly Isles.
There’s a good chance conditions will have a major impact on the Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle at 3pm, however.
Run over the best part of three miles, this is going to be a thorough test of stamina but there is a surprising lack of concrete evidence over the staying power of plenty of the runners.
Only three horses in the field have stayed this far in victory, and though plenty should stay on pedigree or running style or both, I’d rather back a horse that’s been there and done it given this could be really hard work.
The trio of distance winners are Valhalla, Desert Sensation and BALLYCULLA, and at 33/1 (general) the last-named makes plenty of each-way appeal at the prices.
The first thing to acknowledge is this horse’s lack of good recent form. He’s run twice this season over fences and has been stuffed both times. If recent form is a prerequisite for you it’s time to skip eight paragraphs.
For those of you that are with me, he’s worth forgiving those two runs. His seasonal reappearance came in a hot renewal of the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day and he didn’t show anything from an early stage when pulled up in the North Yorkshire Grand National last time at Catterick. That’s a tough race on a sharp track and I’m happy to ignore the run.
The good thing is both his hurdles and chase marks dropped 8lb to 128 on the back of those efforts. He returns to timber off a nice mark and one that is lenient when considering the evidence of his most recent hurdling form from a couple of years ago.
When last seen over hurdles he was regularly competitive off marks in the 130s, while he won easily off marks of 119 and 126 just prior to that.
One of those victories came at Exeter, a testing right-handed track and he’s run well at the same venue a couple of times subsequently as well. In fact, I’d say three of his top six career efforts have come at Exeter and he’s barely raced anywhere else right-handed.
The relevance of that is probably limited at best, but at least it gives some indication that he’ll have no problems with Sandown’s configuration and he’ll certainly have no problems with the ground given just about all of his wins have come on soft or heavy.
The most important thing, though, is that he’s a thorough stayer. He’s won over three miles five times and he gets further, so if he’s right there’s a good chance he’ll stay on when plenty of his opponents have cried enough.
It’s the ‘if he’s right’ that’s the dilemma. Warren Greatrex leaves the headgear off for the first time in 13 starts so this could just be an attempt at boosting his confidence before a return to fences.
Weighing everything up, however, I can’t leave him unbacked at 33/1. He’s arguably the best-handicapped horse in the race on his old form, Thomas Greatrex takes off another 7lb and he has the tools for this test whereas it’s an unknown whether plenty of his rivals do.
Earlier on the Sandown card DREAM BOLT looks overpriced at 20/1 (Betfair Sportsbook) in the Betfred ‘Treble The Odds On Lucky 15’s’ Handicap Chase (1.15).
David Rees’ horse returned from an absence of 16 months when winning at Chepstow on January 8 and as long as this assignment doesn’t come too soon he has a good chance of following up.
He travelled really well at Chepstow, took the two fences that come close together down the back with aplomb (an encouraging sign before he attempts the Railway Fences) and responded well to pressure to see off Ubaltique in the closing stages.
Ubaltique has franked the form emphatically since with an excellent win at Haydock, and that means Dream Bolt meets his old rival on 4lb better terms despite beating him last time.
His Chepstow win proved he could handle testing ground, a 6lb rise for that win looks fair bordering on lenient and he could well take advantage getting significant weight from everything in the field on Saturday.
Finally, THE DUTCHMAN looks a fair bet at the general 9/1 in the totepool Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby (2.45) on Saturday.
Sandy Thomson’s horse has performed well on all of his three trips to Wetherby in the past, including in a novices’ handicap chase at the track last time.
That came off a mark of 137 and he lost nothing in defeat trying to give 7lb to Dan Skelton’s Oldgrangewood, a horse that might be unbeaten over fences had he not been brought down at Aintree.
Prior to that The Dutchman carried a penalty against Aux Ptits Soins and Westren Warrior at Kelso, but again he should be commended for finishing a close third against that duo. Back in fourth, beaten 19 lengths, was Saturday’s rival Delusionsofgrandeur, with whom The Dutchman gets a 9lb pull at the weights.
That went a long way to proving The Dutchman stays three miles and his pedigree says he should too.
He faces some tough opponents in Calett Mad and Missed Approach on Saturday, but his chasing form stacks up with both of those horses and his proven track record could be a vital edge.