Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips for Saturday

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Newmarket

1.45 1 pt – 10 Summerghand 9/2

For a big-field sprint a surprisingly small number appealed at the prevailing odds and, although he’s already at the head of the market, Summerghand looks the one to be with. He’s very well treated on the form he was showing last summer and there’s been more than enough in his recent efforts to suggest he retains that ability, particularly his eye-catching fifth at the Craven meeting here last time. He travelled smoothly out the back but met trouble as he tried to weave his way through but couldn’t quite peg back a host of more prominently ridden rivals. Less of a tailwind and slower ground will hopefully mean the advantage to prominent racers won’t be so pronounced here, and hoping that he finally gets the breaks from this mark made more appeal than trying to work out who might take advantage if he doesn’t.

2.20 1 pt – 7 Westerton 9/1 & 9 – Lion of War 11/1

Torito is the sort of unexposed horse who could easily win this on his four-year-old reappearance en route to better things, but it’s hard to argue there’s a whole lot of juice in his price on Friday afternoon. It’s not hard to make a case for Dutch Decoy and Theoryofeverything who both ran well here at the Craven meeting and are both 1 lb well-in in this early-closing race, but this does look tougher, and we’d prefer to look elsewhere. First up is Westerton who progressed really well at three, still doesn’t have that many miles on the clock and comes from a yard that has saddled winners of competitive handicaps under both codes in recent weeks (and had plenty of others run well). He’s got several very tidy pieces of form in the book, and although he was tried over a mile and a half a couple of times last year, he’s a strong-travelling individual and it wouldn’t surprise were a good gallop on rain-softened ground at this trip to bring out the best in him.

Lion of War will have to handle the Dip a lot better than he appeared to when running at this meeting last year, but perhaps he’ll be better equipped to cope with it as a four-year-old, a strong individual who’s the type to do better again this year, and he’s another with some strong three-year-old formlines last year. He had an unsuccessful stint in America but has returned to Middleham, and Charlie Johnston has already had a winner this spring with a horse that had rejoined the stable (Qitaal at Doncaster at 14/1) and he’s had a number of reappearing winners in the past week.

2.55 1 pt – 9 Beautiful Diamond 7/2

It’s hard to escape the conclusion that this is a below-par renewal of the Palace House, very few of these with serious pretentions of success at a higher level this year and, as such, it may be worth chancing the three-year-old filly Beautiful Diamond. Very few three-year-olds run in the race these days – Sergei Prokofiev in 2019 was the last, and you have to go back to Amour Propre 10 years earlier for the last three-year-old winner – and she’ll have to improve, but there’s a fair chance she can up her game again this year, a tall filly who ran just four times at two having been a very expensive breeze-up purchase. Her Ayr win on her final start last year proved she can cope with cut in the ground, and it’s interesting that Karl Burke is pitching her in here as his Spycatcher finished a place ahead of Mitbaahy in the Abernant.

3.35 0.5 pt 3 Ghostwriter 12/1 & 10 Task Force 20/1

This is surely a good Guineas despite the smaller-than-usual field. Comparisons between City of Troy and the peerless 2011 winner remain fanciful, but he was still an extremely good champion two-year-old and, considering the final furlong was always the most impressive part of his races, there’s every reason to think he can match or even exceed his juvenile achievements now tried over a mile. In truth, there are no obvious weaknesses in his profile, but things do sometimes go wrong – you have to go back to Churchill in 2017 to find the last short-priced favourite to win the Guineas – and there are promising horses available at big odds. It’s perhaps worth splitting small stakes on a couple, and first on the list is Task Force. He represents a difference formline to most, coming as he does from the Middle Park, and has only raced at six furlongs so far. His pedigree – he’s by Frankel out of Special Duty, who was awarded the 1000 Guineas in 2010 – strongly suggests a mile will suit, while he’s got the physique to train on really well, so there’s plenty of hope that he can step up to the high-class level likely to be required, having had a breathing operation in the seven months since last seen. It’s also worth keeping Ghostwriter on side, who along with City of Troy is the only unbeaten pattern-race winner in the field. He was impressive when landing the Royal Lodge over this course and distance when last seen in September – a smart effort backed up by the timefigure – and is another with the physical presence to progress again as a three-year-old.

Goodwood

2.05 1 pt – 4 Orchid Bloom 7/2

This listed race looks tight but perhaps Orchid Bloom offers the most upside. She’s won two of her six career outings and has made the first three on the other four, including twice at this level on her final two outings last season, and while those efforts might need improving on here, the fact William Haggas has kept her in training suggests he feels she’s capable of better still. Orchid Bloom is proven on soft ground and is one of the more plausible front runners – she made all for an easy handicap win at Newbury last summer – in a race lacking much obvious pace, with Cieren Fallon likely to be keen to go forward from the inside stall that traditionally confers an advantage over this course and distance.

Thirsk

2.40 0.5 pt ew – 9 Redarna 20/1 & 12 Bajan Bandit 25/1

Something of a surprise that Racingbreaks Ryder has found his way to the head of the market as, although he figures on a good mark again now, there wasn’t enough in his reappearance to think a return to his best was imminent. In fact, those at the head of the betting all look easy enough to take on, Northern Express and Thunder Roar having their chance off similar marks on recent starts and Hiromichi now stepping up in grade. With five places on offer, we’d rather have darts at a couple of outsiders, the first of which is the 2022 winner of this contest Redarna. The fact he’s won this before suggests it’s probably been the plan and there was a fair bit to like about his staying-on fifth at Musselburgh on his first start back, closing well from behind in a race that suited those ridden prominently. A return to a mile will suit and whatever the ground is will be fine, so he can outrun his odds. So too might Bajan Bandit who was down the field at Newmarket on his return, but he’s been unconvincing on that track before and ran much better second time out last year than he had on his reappearance. He’s got some strong three-year-old form, including in big-fields, and if he runs up to that for his in-form yard he can be thereabouts.

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