Paddington wins the St James's Palace Stakes
Paddington: Hit the heights

Timeform ratings analysis | Five key ratings changes at Royal Ascot


Tony McFadden highlights five horses who showed much-improved form at Royal Ascot last week and significantly increased their Timeform rating.

River Tiber (109p from 104p)

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The best performance by a two-year-old at Royal Ascot was posted by River Tiber who extended his unbeaten record to three with a neck success in the Coventry Stakes, earning a Timeform rating of 109p.

River Tiber had to work hard to give Aidan O'Brien a tenth win in the race, but in fending off a couple of much-improved once-raced winners in Army Ethos and Bucanero Fuerte, plus the only previous pattern-race winner Givemethebeatboys, he propelled himself to the head of the juvenile pecking order among those in Britain and Ireland.

It's worth pointing out, though, that French filly Ramatuelle is also rated 109 after winning a Group 3 at Chantilly by five lengths last week and would receive a 3 lb sex allowance should they meet.

River Tiber, who remains open to further progress, including over seven furlongs, was an up-to-scratch winner of the Coventry, though behind the level shown by the likes of Calyx and Caravaggio in recent years.

Paddington (126p from 119p)

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There was room for debate about the pecking order among the three-year-old milers heading into the St James's Palace Stakes but Paddington's three-and-three-quarter-length success provided clarity.

The Irish Guineas had not been run at a true tempo, but there was a much stronger gallop in the St James's Palace and that allowed Paddington to advance his form, putting up a high-class performance to overhaul Chaldean - the winner of the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket - and draw clear inside the final furlong.

Paddington earned a rating of 126p which places him at the head of the three-year-old division - French Derby winner Ace Impact is rated 125p as is Derby winner Auguste Rodin - and given his rate of improvement he seems likely to progress further.

Vauban (119 from 111)

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The widest-margin win of the week was posted by Vauban, who powered seven and a half lengths clear in the Copper Horse Handicap, making a mockery of his opening handicap mark.

Vauban had run only four times in the Flat in France for his previous yard, but he had won a listed race on his final start in that sphere before joining Willie Mullins and developing into a multiple Grade 1-winning high-class hurdler.

He was sent off a heavily-backed even-money favourite to capitalise on a handicap mark based on his Flat form in France and he duly delivered, becoming the shortest-priced handicap winner at the meeting this century, while his winning margin was only half a length shy of equalling the record for a handicap win at Royal Ascot in the same timeframe.

His rating of 119 is the same figure that Wicklow Brave ran to when winning the Irish St Leger for the yard in 2016; he may try to emulate Wicklow Brave who is the last horse to win a top-level race on the Flat and over jumps.

Mostahdaf (129 from 123)

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There were some high-profile disappointments in the Prince of Wales's Stakes, but Mostahdaf still deserves credit for producing an improved performance to run out an authoritative winner.

Mostahdaf hadn't been at his best when fourth behind Equinox - the highest-rated horse in the world - in the Dubai Sheema Classic, though perhaps paid the price there for giving chase to the impressive winner for a long way over a distance probably beyond his best.

Ridden with greater patience than in Dubai and dropped back to a mile and a quarter, Mostahdaf impressed with how he travelled at Ascot and readily quickened four lengths clear, earning a Timeform rating of 129 that leaves him behind only Kyprios (131) and level with Vadeni and Hukum in the list of Timeform's highest-rated horses in Europe.

Courage Mon Ami (128 from 115p)

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Courage Mon Ami was making only his fourth start in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot and was stepping up three-quarters of a mile in trip, but he coped remarkably well for one so inexperienced, confirming himself a high-class stayer with a three-quarter-length defeat of the very smart Coltrane, who in turn was three and three-quarters lengths clear of Subjectivist, the 2021 winner, in third.

Last year's Gold Cup winner Kyprios, who is currently on the sidelines, brushed all-comers aside last season and earned the highest rating by a stayer this century when credited with a figure of 131 for his 20-length success in the Prix du Cadran.

Stradivarius peaked at a rating of 130 for his ten-length win in the 2020 Gold Cup - which was his third successive win in the race - so it says a lot about Courage Mon Ami's talent that he is already within hailing distance on ratings at such an early stage of his career.


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