Ben Linfoot looks at tactics in the St Leger, the history of race specialists in the Portland and what we need to see in the Irish Champion ahead of a superb Saturday.
Leger tactics a Subject to discuss
Who presses Subjectivist for the lead and at what point looks one of the key tactical battles in the Pertemps St Leger at Doncaster on Saturday (3.35).
If Pyledriver is to settle early on Martin Dwyer will want them to go a good gallop and you would think that scenario will suit the Ballydoyle-trained horses, too.
After all, Santiago was tried at two miles in the Goodwood Cup and he’s won at just short of the Leger distance in the Queen’s Vase, so a Subjectivist-dictated gallop potentially wouldn’t suit either of the market leaders.
The problem, though, is that there is many a hold-up horse in this race. I’m looking at Hukum, Mohican Heights, Tyson Fury, Pyledriver, Berkshire Rocco and Galileo Chrome and it’s hard to envisage any of those switching to more positive tactics.
Perhaps the Irish raider, Sunchart, second to subsequent Park Hill winner, Pista, last time out at Leopardstown, will keep Subjectivist honest, but there looks to be a real possibility Joe Fanning - fast approaching his 50th birthday - will be able to dictate the fractions aboard the son of Teofilo.
It’s hard to think of the last horse to make all in the Leger.
The brains trust on the Sporting Life racing desk came up with Reference Point in 1987 (we’re happy to be corrected on that) and while it will be tough for Subjectivist to see off all challenges on the long home straight, he’s a dangerous rival to gift a lead judging by his March Stakes romp last time.
It could well be up to Ballydoyle’s main hope, Santiago, under Frankie Dettori, to press for the lead at a relatively early stage and it will be fascinating to see how the six-time Leger winning jockey tackles this assignment.
The market reckons the two other elder statesmen in the race, Dettori and Dwyer, could have it between them.
And using all that experience, keeping a cool head, and challenging at just the right time could be the difference between Aidan O’Brien winning his 88th Classic, or William Muir his first.
Madness bids to join elite Portland posse
The bet365 Portland Handicap is a great sprint with its unique inbetweener distance of five and a half furlongs and it’s had its fair share of race specialists over the years.
Tag End won back-to-back renewals in 1928-29, Polar Bear won it twice in the early 1930s, Shalfleet did the double in the middle of that century, Reminiscence won it twice in the 1950s, Hello Mister won it in 1994 and 1995 and then along came Halmahera to trump them all with a memorable hat-trick from 2002 to 2004.
A Momentofmadness could add his name to that list in Saturday’s renewal as he’s forged his own terrific record in the race, finishing sixth off 95 in 2017, first off 99 in 2018 and second off 95 last year, where he was runner-up to subsequent Group One winner, Oxted.
This year he races off 91, so he’s mouth-wateringly treated on his previous efforts in this race and he ran a beautiful prep last time, running on over the bare five at Goodwood for a season’s-best third.
Drawn next to the pacey Justanotherbottle and Meraas in the middle of the track, he could get a lovely tow into things even if he doesn’t lead and the lack of rain this week is massively in his favour.
Charlie Hills has won this race twice from six runners, as he landed it with Angels Will Fall in 2013, too, and he’s interestingly taken the hood off this horse, which hints at a return to his previously successful aggressive tactics.
He’s been pretty well found in the market, but the 15/2 available at the time of writing seems very fair indeed for a well-handicapped race specialist who has worked his way back into form.
Could Armory be the sacrificial lamb?
On his last three starts Ghaiyyath has chewed up and spat out Anthony Van Dyck, Broome, Japan, Magic Wand and Magical after making all in bloodless fashion.
They were at Newmarket, Sandown and York, but now he steps onto Aidan O’Brien’s home turf with the Ballydoyle maestro gunning for a ninth Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown.
It’s time to try something different and going toe to toe with the Charlie Appleby-trained monster in the first furlong or two, in a bid to try and unsettle his routine, are the tactics we need to see.
It seems unlikely Magical or Japan will eyeball the son of Dubawi so early in proceedings, even though the former just sat off her pacemaker in a prominent position when winning this race last year.
Sottsass and Leo De Fury haven’t previously made the running, either, so it could be left to Armory, the O’Brien third string, to try and ruffle the feathers of the odds-on favourite in a bid to help his stablemates’ cause.
The 40/1 chance was sent off 4/1 for the Irish 2000 Guineas three starts ago, which seems a rapid fall from grace, but he got back on the winning trail in a Group 3 last time out where he was held-up in customary fashion.
Going for the lead early is not a natural thing for him to do, and he might not be quick enough, but it would be great to see The Lads at least try something different.
A single-file procession behind the runaway winner, Ghaiyyath, looks the most likely scenario, however this plays out, but it would make for a great spectacle if something managed to go with him early on and sacrificing Armory’s chance might be the only way to slice it.