With the cold snap continuing it’s no wonder the C-word is in our thoughts, as Ben Linfoot looks at potential opposition to the red-hot Sky Bet Supreme favourite.
Facile price triggers hunt for potential value
“I know that Facile Vega is a high-quality horse and I know he’s going to win good races, but I wonder if he is a genuine Supreme horse who can run in the high 140s if the ground is good in March? He has had soft or yielding ground for all his bumpers, he got a very soft lead on his hurdles debut the other day, jumped very well, bolted up, wasn't much of a time. But, for the moment, given he’s 5/4 for the Supreme, I wonder if there might be one or two horses sharp enough or quick enough to put it up to him next spring?"
As Graham Cunningham says in the ‘Boom and Bust’ section of this week’s Sporting Life Racing Podcast, Facile Vega could be vulnerable in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle, for all that he's already 5/4 favourite for the Cheltenham curtain-raiser in three months' time.
There is the ground question mark and the option of the Ballymore, as well, so ahead of the busy festive period here are four horses that could lay down their own Supreme Novices' claims in the coming weeks and months.
ARCTIC BRESIL (Henry de Bromhead) Sky Bet odds – 33/1
After Constitution Hill’s startling arrival on the National Hunt scene you can’t blame us for starting with another son of Blue Bresil that was bought out of the point-to-point fields. ARCTIC BRESIL was a £305,000 purchase from Sean Doyle last November and he made his debut for Henry de Bromhead under Rules just last Sunday, where he landed the Bar One Racing Maiden Hurdle at Cork over 2m1f. He lowered the Susannah Ricci colours carried by 8/11 favourite Mercurey and did so easily, travelling well and moving smoothly on the front end before easing to a five-and-a-half length success under Rachael Blackmore. It was no surprise to hear De Bromhead nominate the Grade 2 Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novices' Hurdle at Punchestown in January as a possible target in the aftermath, a race that has a rich history of unearthing the Supreme winner.
CARNFUNNOCK (Stuart Crawford) Sky Bet odds – 33/1
Now, CARNFUNNOCK was well beaten by Facile Vega in a couple of bumpers so he has plenty to make up from that sphere if he’s to make up into a Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ contender, but the early signs are good. He began the season by continuing his bumper education, winning a three-runner race at Down Royal where he accounted for Gordon Elliott’s Better Days Ahead, a horse who has subsequently defeated Willie Mullins’ 4/6 chance Chapeau De Soleil at Fairyhouse. Almost four weeks after his Down Royal win Carnfunnock went to Ayr for his hurdling debut, where he was backed from 10/11 into 1/5, a market move that never looked like disappointing. It’s difficult to pinpoint how good he could be, but he’s likely to have plenty of options over Christmas and he could easily be one who suddenly throws his hat into the ring over the festive period.
INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN (Gavin Cromwell) Sky Bet odds – 33/1
Gavin Cromwell has proven himself a trainer to be reckoned with at the Cheltenham Festival the last four years. Since 2019 he’s had four Festival winners thanks to Flooring Porter (twice), Espoir D’Allen and Vanillier and his entries will be some of the first punters will be looking for as races formulate in the long build-up. INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN could be one of his team this year for JP McManus, an owner who has finished second in the Supreme four times since he last won with with Captain Cee Bee in 2008. Inothewayurthinkin won the same Gowran novice hurdle Douvan won during his Supreme-winning season last month, where he stayed on well to beat Imagine by half-a-length in heavy ground. He’d appreciate a stronger gallop than that and, being by Walk In The Park, he’d be expected to handle better ground just fine, too. He could develop into a contender.
QUAIS DE PARIS (Willie Mullins) Sky Bet odds – 25/1
If not Facile Vega, it doesn’t mean Willie Mullins won’t be winning the Supreme. A winner of the Festival opener on seven occasions, he’s due another given he’s failed to get a runner home in the first two since Appreciate It bolted up in 2021. Joking aside, Mullins could have at least 20 potential Supreme horses in his care at the moment and pinpointing just the one (when betting without Facile) isn’t easy, but plenty of eyes will be trained on QUAIS DE PARIS when he makes his stable debut. The son of Masked Marvel (sire of Teahupoo) is a four-year-old purchase from France and here’s a reminder of what his trainer told us in his pre-season stable tour: “He looks very sharp at home on the gallops and we'll just let him tell us later on in the season which way to go. I think he could do anything and is a very nice individual to be looking forward to over hurdles.” He could end up being a handicap project for the Martin Pipe or County Hurdle, but either way he's one to keep an eye on in the division when the wraps are taken off.