Racing tip of the day: Jubilee worth celebrating
Ben Coley steps in for today's racing tip of the day and is siding with an 18/1 chance at Newcastle this evening.
Recommended bets:
I'm inclined to give National Hunt racing a wide berth where possible over the next two weeks, with the publication of the Cheltenham handicap weights today a reminder that the Festival is firmly on the horizon.
Matt Brocklebank's Antepost Angle has established some nice positions - please, oh please let Sizing John run in the Ryanair/Cue Card win the Gold Cup - and his take on those handicaps will be well worth a look when it appears on these pages.
For now, let's focus on Newcastle's all-weather action where Jubilee Brig has enough in his favour to be worth chancing to win over a mile for the first time in his career.
Clearly, any seven-year-old yet to prove he stays the distance comes with serious question marks, but only four times in a 50-race career has this horse gone beyond seven furlongs - and on one of those occasions, over Deuville's seven-and-a-half and on a demanding Fibresand surface, he won.
The other three can be excused, too: his first try at a mile came after a year off and on the back of a gelding operation; his second under an inexperienced apprentice and at Carlisle, an extreme test at the trip; his third off a mark plenty high enough and having run poorly over his optimum distance the time before.
The evidence of his recent runs, where he's stayed on having been outpaced over seven, is that as he gets older he might well need more of a test and this poor affair looks an ideal place to put that theory to the test.
Three runs ago he was a staying-on, slightly unfortunate third in a better race than this when sent off 33/1, while last time out he ran as well as could've been expected in a classified contest, finishing on the heels of two higher-rated horses off level weights, again finishing his race well.
The winner that day, Mehdi, has since gone close off a higher mark and this 0-70 handicap undeniably represents a drop in grade from those races - indeed, it's his first run this far down the handicap ladder.
Given that he's proven on the surface, that all three handicap wins have come off higher marks, and that there just isn't an unexposed improver in this race, his chance might be better than the price implies.
Posted at 0910 GMT on 01/03/17.
