With news that racing in Ireland will resume on June 8 Richard Mann identifies some interesting trends that could be worth calculating into any early-season wagers.
The O’Brien conundrum
The delayed resumption of the Irish Flat season leaves punters with plenty to ponder, not least whether tried and tested early-season methods should be abandoned as we enter the third week of May.
Traditionally, this would be the time of year when late risers come into their own after quick starters such as Jim Bolger, Ger Lyons and Tommy Stack have wasted little time in getting their horses out and paying their way.
The general rule of thumb in recent years has been that Aidan O’Brien doesn’t tend to ask too many questions of his horses until Royal Ascot is a little closer on the horizon, for all he rarely misses a trick when it comes to readying his Classic hopes for Newmarket.
The numbers, however, make for a slightly murkier picture with O’Brien actually ticking along at a healthy strike-rate of 23% in Ireland in March 2019, 17% for the same month in 2018 and 44% in 2017.
In April 2019, O’Brien sent out 17 winners at a strike-rate of 25% with his 20% strike-rate for 2018 and 16% strike-rate in 2017 respectable enough, too.
By the time May rolls around, it is hard to find a noticeable numerical upturn in form with O’Brien only operating at a strike-rate of 16% in 2019 having been up at 24% and 23% in 2018 and 2017 respectively.
In terms of 2019, O’Brien actually boasted a comfortably higher strike-strike in Ireland in March and April than at any other time of the season - a strong finish in October (24% strike-rate) notwithstanding - to suggest we shouldn’t be running scared of backing Balldoyle runners early in the year.
One big question to ask is whether, once racing does resume, we judge only the second turf meeting of the year as an early season fixture or in fact, take it as a typical meeting in May.
It’s a conundrum punters and trainers alike will be considering over the coming days as strategies, betting and training, are mapped out but, in the case of O’Brien, I think there are strong reasons to expect his team to hit the ground running whatever view you take.
As the numbers above suggest, O’Brien hasn’t been the early-season slouch some of us may have pigeonholed him as in recent years and with plans for Royal Ascot in June still in place, as well as a rescheduled Classic calendar, time has become an even more precious commodity this year.
Despite enduring a couple of relatively high-profile reversals on the opening day of the Flat season at Naas way back in March, O’Brien still sent out a winner that day in the shape of Russian Emperor and a promising runner-up in Lipizzaner.
The latter looks Royal Ascot material and whether he takes in another run before the trip to Berkshire remains to be seen but, like so many of the other blue-bloods at Ballydoyle that O’Brien will be keen to take the wraps off, expect Lipizzaner to be ready to roll when next seen in public.
Five yeses for Harrington girl band
2019 may have seemed just like any other for a trainer whose sustained success has spanned decades and codes; from a first Cheltenham Festival success back in 1999 to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe meeting and Future Champions Festival at Newmarket.
Nevertheless, even by her own incredibly high standards, 2019 was a year to savour for Jessica Harrington who will have headed into the winter excited by the team of talented of three-year-old fillies she can look forward to in 2020.
Heading the list is Prix Marcel Boussac heroine Albigna who will have Classic duty on her agenda this summer while Millisle looked a sprinter with a huge future when slamming Raffle Prize in the Cheveley Park Stakes.
Her sire, Starspangledbanner, was a fabulous sprinter for Aidan O’Brien and looks to have imparted many of his traits onto a filly who could be worth a crack at something like the Commonwealth Cup should Harrington conclude a mile might just stretch a horse blessed with so much speed.
With Fillies’ Mile fourth Cayenne Pepper another live Oaks contender, whether at home or abroad, Harrington looks to have plenty of angles covered and that’s before she decides what path to plot with the likes of Alpine Star and One Voice.
The former is a Group Two winner already but is bred to relish a stiffer test while the latter made a striking impression when landing a Leopardstown maiden from a host of subsequent winners back in July.
She hasn’t been sighted since but as Fran Berry reported in his 30 Irish horses to follow for 2020 here, her jockey Shane Foley is expecting big things from her this term.
Where she fits into the Harrington pecking order is anybody’s guess, for this is as strong a team of fillies as anyone, O’Brien included, could wish to have at their disposal.
They’d certainly make some girl band and 2020 could be another big year for the Harrington team.
Lyons newcomers always worth respecting
Backing two-year-olds can be a rewarding endeavour but it is a highly-complex pastime that is fraught with danger without a reliable formula to fall back on.
Unlike in handicaps or conditions races, you will almost certainly have a big element of the unknown to consider: pedigree, sales price, owner, trainer, jockey; all of which can have a bigger bearing on the performance of a two-year-old than in other race types.
A smart pedigree is a smart pedigree but it doesn’t always mean a choicely-bred juvenile is going to win a six-furlong maiden in May, nor does its respected trainer guarantee a newcomer in their care will not be in need of the experience first time out.
Some owners prefer their horses to be educated early in their careers with the future in mind and some jockeys would be more mindful of that than others.
In England, it has become very rare for Sir Michael Stoute to have his two-year-olds anywhere near their peak first time out while to some extent, the same could be said of O’Brien in Ireland, though his Royal Ascot hopefuls will invariably be further forward than his middle-distance prospects.
One trainer in Ireland who continues to produce strong numbers, particularly in the two-year-old department, is Ger Lyons. The County Meath handler saddled 27 juvenile winners in Ireland last year and even more striking is that from March to December in 2019, Lyons returned a level-stakes profit in this sphere in six out of nine months, with a late-season lull between September and November not enough to wipe out his overall profit.
These numbers make for impressive reading, particularly for those readying themselves to tackle the fascinating maiden races sure to be on offer at the Curragh and Leopardstown in the coming weeks but, in delving a little deeper, there is more to be learned.
While it is evident that backing Lyons-trained two-year-olds offers a fairly solid starting point, I think there might be profit to be made by paying even more attention to newcomers from his yard.
A general rule of thumb over the years has been that taking previous experience over debutants is the safest way to go in two-year-old races but, while it still bears significance to some extent, there is no question that modern training methods and improved technology have made it easier to get horses fit and ready to run well without the benefit of a previous or recent outing.
In the case of Lyons, he has certainly proved himself more than capable of getting a horse ready to win first time out and he enjoyed another strong summer with his juvenile string last year, one which was headed by unbeaten Group One winner Siskin.
He won at the first time of asking, helping Lyons finish 2019 with a staggering 28.57% strike-rate with his two-year-old debutants. That came a couple of years after Lyons enjoyed a 25.71% strike-rate with his newcomers in 2017 following a dip to 12.73% in 2018. His overall career strike-rate with newcomers stands at a respectable 15.26% but those numbers would suggest the quality of two-year-olds at Lyons' disposal is getting stronger and that his juveniles are, indeed, getting sharper.
Interestingly, this point is backed up by the fact that Lyons’ numbers do take a slight downward trajectory from first to second run over the last couple of years with his two-year-olds winning at a strike-rate of 15.63% on their second starts in the 2019 season compared to that 28.57% strike-rate for newcomers.
It was a similar case in 2018, albeit both numbers – 12.73% strike-rate first time out and 9.09% second time out – were less impressive generally. In 2017, Lyons' juveniles performed marginally better second time out than first, adding to the argument that is a changing trend, and a recent one.
In summary: Lyons is a trainer always worth noting in the two-year-old division, even when coming up against the likes of Aidan O’Brien and Dermot Weld, but while he is sure to keep churning out winners all season and at different stages of his horses careers, his runners appear to be particularly dangerous first time out.
And why is that? The obvious answer is that Lyons is a fine trainer who is evolving with the times and Siskin’s progress last summer was testament to that. The First Defence colt was sharp enough to beat a strong Ballydoyle challenge in May before progressing throughout the season and winning the Phoenix Stakes on his fourth start in August.
I’m keen to make that point because this piece is in no way an attempt to suggest Lyons is a one-trick pony with his juveniles; far from it, and to watch Lemista win her maiden at the third time of asking last autumn before returning to claim Group Three honours on her seasonal reappearance at Naas in March provided further evidence that Lyons really is a trainer for all seasons and all types.
Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that Lyons-trained newcomers will warrant significant interest in the coming weeks and part of this can also be attributed to his relationship with stable jockey Colin Keane.
The pair have been together since 2014 when Keane won the apprentice jockeys' title in Ireland and it is a relationship which has blossomed on the foundations of respect and trust, something that has been to the benefit of horses and their owners.
It does help that Keane is a wonderful jockey who is rapidly developing into one of the finest pilots in Europe and if there is a better rider of two-year-olds in Britain and Ireland right now, I’m not sure I’ve seen him or her.
A strong as they come in a finish, Keane has that rare gift of being able to coax just as much effort from his horses when putting down his stick and riding with hands and heels. It's a skill which sets him apart from many of his contemporaries and makes him so deadly in two-year-old races when those he is riding for don’t want their horses to have a hard race with the whip first time out.
Lyons and Keane really are the deadly duo in Irish racing at the moment; an irresistible combination whose newcomers have to be afforded maximum respect once racing resumes.
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