Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Saturday's Investec Derby at Epsom and picks out the key statistics.
Horses trained by Mark Johnston regularly bust stats as his horses tend to race far more often than rivals based with other yards.
Permian's frequent visits to the track shouldn't be held against him therefore and he did win one of the best trials for the Investec Derby when taking the Dante Stakes at York.
That race and the 2000 Guineas have supplied seven winners of the Epsom Classic in the last decade but only one horse beaten at York, Workforce, has gone on to win on the Downs.
That is a negative for Benbatl and Rekindling while the representative from the Guineas, Eminent, would be an unusual winner having only finished sixth at Newmarket, his most recent start.
Douglas Macarthur, Best Solution, Capri, Glencadam Glory and more besides have all been beaten too often to be considered in a race where the market principals have dominated.
In contrast, Dubai Thunder lacks experience and John Gosden is also concerned that could be the case with Cracksman who bids to become the second consecutive winner to have had their prep race in April (although not by design).
The latter represents the connections of 2015 winner Golden Horn and is the choice of Frankie Dettori from five runners while Ryan Moore has elected to ride CLIFFS OF MOHER from Aidan O'Brien's six contenders.
Neither horse has raced in Group company yet whereas the majority of winners had already been successful at that level but both have won in the highest grade that thay have contested.
It's hard to argue that this is a 'usual' Derby though with the largest field going to post since Kris Kin won in 2003.
The market leaders tick the other key boxes and marginal preference is for Cliffs Of Moher who coincidentally bids to become the first Derby winner to have emerged from the Dee Stakes since Kris Kin himself.
- Winners have been priced between 8/13 and 7/1 with four successful favourites.
- Winners have been drawn between 3 and 14 with six in single figures.
- Nine winners finished either first or second on their preceding start, seven were successful.
- Nine winners had their prep race in May.
- Winners had raced between two and seven times with nine having between two and four career starts.
- Only three winners were unbeaten; three had only been beaten on debut.
- All of the winners had won at least 50% of their careers starts.
- Nine winners had raced as a juvenile (Ruler of the World the exception), with 8 making their debuts no earlier than July.
- Nine winners had won at Group Three level or higher.