Graham Cunningham sets the scene ahead of Champions Day in Hong Kong by tackling the five key questions head-on.
The Hong Kong government have played their part and the Hong Kong Jockey Club have followed suit with stringent measures to keep racing afloat as the rest of the racing world is rocked by coronavirus.
All that remains is for the stars to live up to their billing this Sunday on an FWD Champions Day which represents the shape of things to come for any number of major racing nations.
Three months have passed since HK racing moved into lockdown mode and Sunday’s three G1 contests worth £6m will take place before a bare essentials audience of owners, trainers and officials with medical masks, temperature checking and social distancing all mandatory as usual.
Travel restrictions have put paid to the presence of international raiders but Sky Sports will have all the action live and most of HK’s elite are on deck for a card dominated by five key questions...
1. Can Beauty Generation justify top billing yet again in the Champions Mile (09.00)?
Hong Kong’s master miler has shredded the record books over the last three years and, having taken his career earnings to £10m by winning the G2 Chairman’s Trophy recently, he now bids to become the first three-time winner of the Champions Mile and the first HK horse ever to win 19 races.
Trainer John Moore knows the clock is ticking and that BG doesn’t have as much in hand as he used to aged seven but he never lacks confidence and sums up this latest task by saying: “I’m thrilled, everything has gone to plan and it’s all systems go."
Waikuku failed to fire after a break in Beauty Generation’s Chairman’s Trophy but is still 4-2 up in their head to heads this season, while Ka Ying Star has seen Beauty’s backside six times in seven meetings but has got close enough twice of late to suggest he can go well at a price under rising French star Antoine Hamelin.
Predicting the way the race will set up is easy enough, as Ka Ying Star seems sure to roll forward from the inside gate with Beauty Generation stalking under Zac Purton and Waikuku ridden to call late by Joao Moreira.
The market looks set to swing towards the old champ and that’s understandable, as he looked to win snugly three weeks ago and Moore will have him wound tight for what could be his HK swansong.
But Waikuku was doing a fair impression of high-class miler before his latest blip and if both horses are on song for round seven of their heavyweight series this has all the makings of a very close tussle indeed.
2. Can the mercurial Time Warp shine again in the QEII Cup (09.40)?
If the chasing pack let Joao Moreira cuddle him through a dawdling first 1200m of 74.7s as they did in the HK Gold Cup in February, then the answer is yes.
But, when all the results are in, Time Warp is still Time Warp – and that means he’s one of the most hit and miss G1 horses on the planet.
Tony Cruz feels Moreira could be the key to Time Warp nowadays but the choosy chestnut tends to follow his wins with a blowout nowadays and if the whip has to come out it’s usually game over.
Moreira knows his foibles, his rivals know his foibles, and the wily Time Warp probably knows more than all of them put together. In short, if he dictates he’s dangerous. And if he’s pressured he’s prone to packing it in.
3. What’s in the Zac Purton playbook for Time Warp’s stablemate Exultant this time?
Something less passive than when a never-nearer second in the Gold Cup has to be the order of the day to reduce the risk of another sit-sprint scenario that neutralises his greatest asset.
Exultant has come a long way since chasing home Churchill and Thunder Snow in the Irish Guineas three years ago but he’s vulnerable if dropped out in slowly-run races and Time Warp was still strong when he finally got going last time.
Purton is prone to bemoaning that “they left the leader alone” on such occasions but relying on others in the peloton to press the pace is fraught with risk, especially in a small field such as this, and the Teofilo gelding has shown on several occasions that he’s capable of sustaining high speed for long periods when ridden more aggressively.
Such tactics have gone a long way towards helping Exultant collect £5m for nine wins including three of HK’s four premier middle distance G1's, namely the Vase, the Gold Cup and the Champions & Chater Cup. This year’s QEII field looks nothing like so deep as last year’s - when he chased home Win Bright with crack fillies like Lys Gracieux and Deirdre behind – and his powerful finish should settle all arguments this time.
4. Can Aethero bounce back from a bruising defeat in the Chairman's Sprint Prize (07.50)?
The precocious Denman-lookalike is one of the most exciting young horses seen in HK for years and put up the most visually striking performance of the season when running clean away from the best 1200m horses in town in the G2 Jockey Club Sprint back in November.
But things haven't gone smoothly since. A brave third in the HK Sprint was followed by a lay-off caused by an infection and Aethero blew out badly on his return in the G2 Sprint Cup three weeks ago, copping a hefty bump after missing the break then racing much too fiercely and fading tamely as Voyage Warrior, Hot Kong Prawn and Thanks Forever fought out the finish.
John Moore sent Aethero back to the barrier trials last week and he looked much more like his old self, bounding clear of a considerately-handled Hot King Prawn early on and coming home in 22.2s and 22.3s for his final two 400m splits.
But a solo in the morning is worlds apart from the intensity of a G1 sprint. The first 400m will be very important for Aethero on Sunday. If he breaks smartly and rolls forward he's a sight to behold. But if the early stages don't go right then the vital last phase could be problematic again.
5. Is the Sprint Cup a reliable form guide for the principals?
Probably not. Wet tracks are unusual in HK but rain had got into the ground on April 5th and Voyage Warrior held on well having been allowed to dictate an unusually tepid first 800m of 46.56s under Vincent Ho.
Ricky Yiu's gelding surely won't get such a soft lead this time - especially if Aethero hits the ground running - and a reasonable case can be made for both Hot King Prawn and Thanks Forever turning the form around.
Hot King Prawn raced a shade too freely into the steady pace in the Sprint Cup and but he battled on willingly as usual and it shouldn't be forgotten that he beat Thanks Forever and Voyage Warrior when conceding them 6lb and 20lb over course and distance in March.
Consistency and an ideal inside draw suggest the Prawn is going to run at or close to his international rating of 120 again here. That ought to be enough to come out best of the Sprint Cup principals - and if he does produce his very best then Aethero will have to be right back to the lofty peak he scaled last November to see him off.