Ben Linfoot discusses the Gigginstown five, Grade One form, Aintree specialists and more ahead of the Randox Health Grand National.
Going to ‘Town?
There isn’t a Don Poli or an Outlander or an Empire Of Dirt in the Grand National. Michael O’Leary was very definite about that and he’s stuck to his word.
“None of the top three of mine – Outlander, Empire Of Dirt and Don Poli – will run if they are not going to be treated fairly,” O’Leary said when the weights were released back in February and, sure enough, that trio were never in the reckoning for the big one.
But his Gigginstown operation still account for 12.5 per cent of the National field on Saturday, with five of the 40 runners set to sport the maroon silks with the big white star, colours that were carried to victory by last year’s winner, Rule The World.
Perhaps the Ryanair supremo feels all of these have been treated fairly, then?
None of the quintet are particularly well-fancied, however, with Rogue Angel the shortest price of the five runners at 33/1. He has been nibbled into 25/1 in places, though, and he isn’t dissimilar in profile to last year’s winner, RTW, as he’s also trained by Mouse Morris, had also run in graded company as a novice and he’s also down towards the bottom of the weights.
While Rule The World had never won over fences, Rogue Angel has four chase victories to his name including the Irish Grand National, a race RTW was second in.
Talking of the 2015 Irish Grand National, Thunder And Roses was the horse that beat Rule The World that year. He’s another of the Gigginstown five in the National and, while he was trained by Sandra Hughes when he won the Irish equivalent, he’s another inmate of Mouse Morris’ now.
He’s been running well in Ireland this year, stamina looks to be his strong suit and at 40/1 he’s another to consider, although he hardly took to the famous fences when pulled up in the 2015 Becher.
Noel Meade has a couple of Gigginstowns running for him, too.
Wounded Warrior is a 66/1 shot, but he did beat possible National favourite Definitly Red in a Maralin point-to-point many moons ago (March 9 2013 to be precise).
He hasn’t found his form this season, but it’s not too long since he was running well in Grade One company. His sixth in the Thyestes would be his best recent effort.
Meade also has Measureofmydreams, who has twice raced (poorly) for his new handler since moving from Willie Mullins’. His win in the sportinglife.com Beginners Chase at Punchestown last year remains one of the highlights of his career.
And, last but not least, it wouldn’t be a Gigginstown raiding party without a Gordon Elliott-trained runner. It’s ten years since Elliott won the National with Silver Birch and he has several chances this year including Roi Des Francs for Gigginstown.
His Cause Of Causes and Ucello Conti are likely to go off much shorter than RDF, but the ex-Mullins eight-year-old is a four-time Grade One runner who had a confidence-boosting win at Down Royal last time.
They might be five outsiders, but the Gigginstown challenge is an interesting one. Despite their odds, could it be Michael O’Leary 1 Phil Smith 0 come Saturday evening?
Company the Irish gamble?
There were 24 years between L’Escargot’s Grand National and Bobbyjo’s Grand National. 24 long years between drinks for the Irish.
That’s a long time, but Bobbyjo’s win opened the floodgates. Papillon followed a year later, then Monty’s Pass after that. Then Hedgehunter, then Numbersixvalverde, then Silver Birch.
Then there was another spell without Irish success. Just the nine years on this occasion, ended last year by Mouse Morris’ Rule The World.
Could that open the floodgates again? We've just discussed the Gigginstown challenge and following a Cheltenham Festival dominated by Irish-trained horses, particularly those trained by Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins, it’s a strong possibility.
Yet the market isn’t predicting Irish success as yet. Just two of the top ten in the betting are Irish-trained, and only one of those, Elliott’s Cause Of Causes, is threatening favouritism at the moment.
Barry Geraghty is the key to which way his odds will go, however. The vibes are, and vibes are all we have to go on at this time of National week, that the returning jockey will partner More Of That instead.
Geraghty is no AP McCoy in the eyes of the general public, though. That mantle, of most famous jockey, has probably been passed on to Ruby Walsh, thanks to his previous National wins and his regular Cheltenham Festival success.
Could he spark a gamble on Willie Mullins’ Pleasant Company? Generally 16/1 at the time of writing, it won’t take much to see him usurp Vieux Lion Rouge as favourite.
The race to be National market leader looks to be a hotly-contested affair. When everything is cut on course and all eyes are on the overround it’s anyone’s guess what ridiculous gamble will take place.
But with Irish success at Cheltenham fresh in the mind, and considering Walsh is the most high-profile name in the weighing room, it would be no surprise to see Pleasant Company’s odds tumble further in the build-up to Saturday.
On cloud nine
There are nine horses officially ahead of the handicapper heading into this weekend’s National.
With the weights released in the middle of February and no penalties assigned to winners, several horses have advertised their credentials for the Aintree spectacular in the intervening months.
Heading the list is Definitly Red, Brian Ellison’s impressive Grimthorpe Chase winner at Doncaster in early March.
A ruthless 14-length winner on Town Moor, from last year’s National second and Grimthorpe winner The Last Samuri to boot, Definitly Red went up to a mark of 159, so he’s 9lb ‘well-in’ at Aintree.
He wasn’t the first horse this season to suggest he might be well-handicapped in the National, however. That accolade went jointly to Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion, who finished one-two in the Grand National Trial at Haydock just days after the weights were released.
Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion are 5lb and 3lb ‘well-in’ respectively at Liverpool, though the latter has a 3lb pull at the weights with the former on their Haydock form (presumably David Pipe’s horse was nudged up a little by Phil Smith’s ‘Aintree factor’ following his Becher Chase win).
And then you’ve got the Gold Cup horses. Saphir Du Rheu and More Of That were a creditable fifth and sixth at Cheltenham and the handicapper was more impressed with the first-named, bumping him up 6lb to 162 on the back of his Festival performance.
More Of That is 2lb ‘well-in’, as is the fellow JP McManus-owned Pendra following his second in the Kim Muir where he travelled like the winner before succumbing to Domesday Book late on.
Horse National Rating New Rating Difference
Definitly Red 149 159 10lb
Tenor Nivernais 152 160 8lb
Saphir Du Rheu 156 162 6lb
Vieux Lion Rouge 149 155 6lb
Blaklion 152 156 4lb
Just A Par 146 150 4lb
Pendra 145 148 3lb
Double Shuffle 149 152 3lb
More Of That 157 159 2lb
Grade One form not much of a filter
Whether it’s the modifications to the fences, the compression of the weights, the slightly shorter distance or a combination of all those factors, better horses are winning the Grand National these days.
Four of the last five winners had contested a Grade One race at some point in their careers prior to their National success with only Aurora’s Encore lacking a top-level appearance.
The problem is, trends buffs, there are plenty of qualifiers this time around. Over half the field have run in at least one Grade One before with Pleasant Company the highest horse in the betting not to have participated at the top level.
A total of 25 of the current top 40 horses have run in a Grade One before and the full list is (winners in bold): The Last Samuri, More Of That, Shantou Flyer, Saphir Du Rheu, Roi Des Frances, Wounded Warrior, Wonderful Charm, Blaklion, The Young Master, Cause Of Causes, Regal Encore, Vieux Lion Rouge, Definitly Red, Ucello Conti (in France), Houblon Des Obeaux, One For Arthur, Ballynagour, O’Faolains Boy, Lord Windermere, Saint Are, Just A Par, Measureofmydreams, Pendra, Cocktails At Dawn and Thunder And Roses.
Back for more
In contrast, previous experience of the Aintree spruce seems to be less of a factor in the modern National.
Since Mon Mome in 2009, only Pineau De Re had experienced the fences before from seven subsequent National winners and that was a fall in the Becher Chase earlier in the same season.
Vics Canvas put his Becher Chase fifth to good use last year, however, finishing third at 100/1, and this season’s Becher could well be a vital piece of form.
Several that ran in the December contest will be lining up for another crack in Liverpool including the first five home; Vieux Lion Rouge, Highland Lodge, The Last Samuri, Ucello Conti and One For Arthur.
Bearing in mind Pineau De Re’s National success after his Becher mishap it might not pay to discount those that didn’t fare so well in this season’s renewal.
Rogue Angel was only 10th but shaped well for a long way before weakening late on, while Saint Are, usually so good over the Aintree fences, fell at the first and The Young Master departed two out when beaten.
The horse with the least experience of those with experience of the Aintree experience, for want of a better phrase, is Kerry Lee’s Bishops Road.
He was sent off the 8/1 favourite for the Topham last year, but unseated Jamie Moore at the first. It would be some turnaround if he were able to win the National on his second crack at the famous fences.