Corach Rambler on his way to victory in the Ultima

Cheltenham Festival preview: Leading hopes for the north

By Ed Watson

Horse Racing

Sun March 12, 2023 · 3y ago

From a sensational six winners in 2012, it’s been slim pickings for the north in the 10 Festivals since, with just three winners.

Here, Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst ED WATSON assesses the chances of another northern success (or two) next week.

CORACH RAMBLER and INTO OVERDRIVE (Ultima Handicap Chase, 2.50 Tuesday)

Given the dearth of success for the north over the last decade, it’s perhaps surprising that northern trainers are chasing an unprecedented hat-trick in this race following the victories of Vintage Clouds in 2021 and CORACH RAMBLER 12 months ago.

The latter has pushed his way to the top of the ante-post market as he bids to become only the fourth horse - and first since Un Temps Pour Tout in 2016 and 2017 - to go back-to-back in the Festival’s opening handicap.

A 6lb higher mark is unlikely to prove insurmountable for a horse still with untapped potential after only eight runs over fences. But it’s doubtful whether Derek Fox will enjoy as much of a charmed run through the pack as he did 12 months ago with what, for my money at least, was the ride of the season.

Corach Rambler is currently second favourite for the Grand National and it may well be that April 15 at Aintree, rather than March 14 in the Cotswolds, is the day when Lucinda Russell has him at his absolute peak.

If that’s the case INTO OVERDRIVE, the horse he recently usurped as the long-time ante-post jolly, could be the one to make it three in a row for the north.

Mark Walford’s charge has developed into one of the most progressive horses in training following an inauspicious start to his chasing career. He beat only one rival on his chase debut last January, then trailed in a distant last of four finishers next time out.

But after making it third time lucky at Carlisle on March 10 last year - on just his second start in a tongue tie - Walford’s eight-year-old has gone from strength to strength, wining four of his next five starts, including when fending off Sounds Russian in Wetherby’s Rowland Meyrick Chase off a 30lb higher mark. Indeed, the only horse to get the better of Into Overdrive in the last 12 months is L’Homme Presse, who repelled his late rally in the Rehearsal Chase before Christmas.

A minor setback ruled him out of the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster in January, but that could yet prove a blessing in disguise as a 5lb rise for Into Overdrive's Wetherby win doesn’t look excessive.

"HE'S A MONSTER!" | Cheltenham Festival preview: Day one

THE REAL WHACKER (Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, 2.10 Wednesday)

If you’re looking at this race for a future Gold Cup contender, I’d bet my last buck that the unbeaten Gerri Colombe tops most lists. But if it’s a here-and-now horse you’re after, one with proven track form and whose slick jumping can be a devastating weapon against fellow novices, then I give you THE REAL WHACKER.

Of course, North Yorkshire-based Irishman Patrick Neville hasn’t completely ruled out the idea of going for Gold this time around. That would surely be a step too far even for the bravest of poker players, but it’s an indication of the esteem in which Neville holds a horse unbeaten in two starts over fences.

The form of his debut win over 3m on the Old Course in November hasn’t worked out, but his pillar-to-post success in the Dipper, over 2m4f on the New Course, on New Year’s Day stands up. His fluent fencing had the likes on Monmiral and Thunder Rock, to whom he was also conceding 3lb, on the stretch from a long way out, over a trip short of his optimum.

Gerri Colombe is a two-time Grade 1 winner over fences and looks sure to improve for the move up to 3m. But on a line through Thunder Rock, there’s little to split Gerri Colombe and The Real Whacker on form. And the latter’s proven Cheltenham form (Gerri Colombe has only run on right-handed tracks over obstacles, but did win a bumper going left-handed) could prove the decisive factor on the day.

BENSON (Coral Cup, 2.50 Wednesday)

The Shunter snaffled the £100,000 Morebattle bonus by switching to fences to plunder the Plate two years ago. Cormier was a fine seventh in the County Hurdle in his attempt to follow up success in Kelso’s richest race by winning again at the Festival.

This time around, it’s the Coral Cup which is the likely destination (rather than the Martin Pipe) for Benson’s bid to bag the extra booty, crucially allowing Ryan Mania to retain the ride on a horse Scottish Borders trainer Sandy Thomson says “isn’t the easiest”.

A 5lb penalty for his Kelso heroics all but guarantees him a place in the field, and the step back up in trip won’t inconvenience the eight-year-old, who was an easy winner over 2m4f on his previous start at Musselburgh and was flat to the boards early on over 2m in the Morebattle.

Win, lose or draw next week, what a bargain buy Benson has proved at £7,000 from the Good Doctor (Newland) last May. His two wins and three runners-up finishes, in five starts for Thomson, has netted new owners Jimmy Fyffe and Scott Townshend nearly £90,000. Superb.

IROKO (Coral Cup, 2.50 Wednesday, or Martin Pipe Hurdle, 5.30 Friday)

Beaten in a bumper and one run over hurdles in France, but that didn’t deter Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero from pitching him into the deep end in his first two British starts (Grade 1 Finale, then Grade 2 Adonis) last season. Unbeaten in two handicap hurdles this term, both at Wetherby, most recently when powering to 14-length success in mid-January. Upped 10lb for that, his shrewd connections (owned by J P McManus) look to have kept their powder dry for a Festival tilt off a mark of 138 that has been enough to sneak into the Coral Cup field in each of the last six years. They have the Martin Pipe as back-up.

COLTOR (Pertemps Final, 2.10 Thursday)

Qualified for the Final when a 40/1 runner-up to Brandy McQueen at Musselburgh early last month on just his second start for trainer Roger Fell and owner Nick Bradley, who picked him up for just 25,000gns at the autumn horses-in-training sale.

A winner at Downpatrick last March for Dermot Weld, this lightly-raced six-year-old showed he can handle the hustle and bustle of a Cheltenham handicap when fifth to Jeff Kidder in the Fred Winter two years ago.

What a story it would be if North Yorkshire-based Fell, whose biggest successes have come on the Flat with Burnt Sugar in the Bunbury Cup and Ascot’s International, landed a Festival victory with what would be only his fourth winner over jumps.

AHOY SENOR and SOUNDS RUSSIAN (Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3.30 Friday)

Has any horse polarised opinion more than AHOY SENOR over the past two seasons? Whether it’s lurching further to the right than Suella Braverman, or looking as gawky as the shy kid thrust into the lead role of their high school musical, the star of Lucinda Russell’s Perthshire operation has his share of knockers.

Yet he’s shown flashes of that streak of innate brilliance only the very best are blessed with. He’s also two-time Grade 1 winner (at novice level admittedly), who produced a career-best performance when beating Sounds Russian, Noble Yeats and Protektorat in the Cotswold Chase on his first go around Cheltenham’s New course on Trials Day.

Yes, he needs to find another 10lb or even 15lb if he’s to mix it with defending champ A Plus Tard (assuming he’s back on song following his Betfair Chase blowout) and Galopin Des Champs. But it’s not impossible that he can. A relentless stamina test, over a course which suits his attacking style, and spring ground could help the pride of Scotland to bridge some of that gap.

Derek Fox’s capability on the big stage isn't to be underestimated, either. From just five previous Festival rides, the Sligo pilot has notched a winner (Corach Rambler), been second on Ahoy Senor (last year’s Brown Advisory), third on 50-1 rag Sky Khan (2016 Martin Pipe), and fourth and fifth on Big River (2019 and 2020 Ultima). He also won the Grand National on his first ride in the race (with One For Arthur in 2017) and landed a Grade 1 on his first attempt at that level (Ahoy Senor in 2021 Sefton) too. That's the record of a man not fazed by the pressure days.

Ahoy Senor takes the measure of Sounds Russian

Fair play to Ruth Jefferson, who swerved what looked to be a penalty kick in Kelso’s Premier Chase (highest-rated entry and suited by the race conditions) to roll the dice and go for Gold with SOUNDS RUSSIAN.

Sean Quinlan, who was on board for the first time in the Cotswold, committed for home a long way out that day and gave his rivals a target to aim at. This second-season chaser remains progressive and deserves his place in the Gold Cup field, but another career-best will be required renewing hostilities with Ahoy Senor, Noble Yeats and Protektorat on 3lb, 6lb and 6lb worse terms respectively.