Breaking It Down: Murt Khan's horse racing tip for Saturday

4.10 Chepstow preview

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ALARY came with a big reputation when moving over from France to Colin Tizzard's yard.

He went off 4/1 favourite from a mark of 162 on his British debut and was pulled up late on having never looked happy.

Next time up at Exeter, he was a lot more promising and it looked like he could do with a drop in trip.

Connections then took their chance in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham and he was never competitive although he travelled quite well.

Today he makes his seasonal reappearance over hurdles running off a slightly more realistic mark of 146. The Tizzard horses look reasonably forward and a trip just shy of two-and-a-half miles with a bit of dig could turn out to be his conditions.

He's a big horse and could spring a surprise today at 16/1.

5.10 Hexham preview

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CARNAROSS has clearly had a few issues in the past and was rated higher a fair bit higher two years ago.

He had a nice pipe opener at Sedgefield after a long break and didn’t run badly in a slow-run race on decent ground.

Next time out at Southwell he fell pretty early.

Today he has a bit of dig underfoot which should suit. It’s hard to make a case for a lot of these and at 25/1 he looks overpriced.

Recommended bets

1pt win Alary in 4.10 Chepstow at 16/1

0.5pts e.w Carnaross in 5.10 Hexham at 25/1

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Breaking It Down P&L: +35.10pts

• October: -2.00pts
• September: +1.75pts
• August: +0.36pts
• July: +15.09pts
• June: -10.10pts
• May: +30pts

Posted at 0810 BST on 14/10/17.

Updated at 0906 BST on 14/10/17.