Can Hurricane Lane make history at ParisLongchamp in just over two weeks' time?
No horse has ever gone on from winning the Cazoo St Leger at Doncaster to win Europe’s premier middle-distance prize but Charlie Appleby's son of Frankel is as short as 4/1 to do just that.
Plenty have tried and even the greats have come up short. In the case of Nijinsky it was agonisingly so. The brilliant son of Northern Dancer had recovered from a bout of ringworm to win the Leger, seemingly with petrol in the tank.
For much of the Longchamp straight he looked set to cap a remarkable season, picking off rivals on the outside of the field under Lester Piggott. But French Derby winner Sassafras, headed inside the distance, rallied to snatch the prize in the final strides. Many felt the runner-up was given too much to do, even more argued he was over-the-top after such a long and glorious season.
But if Nijinsky couldn't do it what hope is there for others? Since then we haven’t seen Triple Crown winners heading to Paris via Doncaster but there have been a trickle of horses going over there with similar chances, according to the market, as Hurricane Lane.
Sun Princess came agonisingly close in 1983, fighting off her rivals to lead the field in the shadows of the post only to be cut down by the remarkable rail run of All Along and Walter Swinburn.
Another star filly to win at Doncaster, User Friendly, beat all bar Subotica in Paris. But still no horse has achieved the double.
So why has it proved so elusive? Speaking on this week’s Sporting Life Podcast, Fran Berry feet it’s a combination of the Town Moor exertions and short gap between the two races.
“It’s a question of timing, you tend to be three weeks out from the Arc at Doncaster and it’s such an exertion on a three-year-old who has probably already had a busy season,” he argued. “To get to a Leger you’re probably competing in the Derby and other Group Ones along the way. You go to Doncaster, two furlongs up in trip, and as you saw last Saturday, there’s no hiding place down that straight.
“When you get into the red zone inside those last couple of furlongs it’s hard and Hurricane Lane showed what it takes out of horses. To get them back to the level needed to win an Arc has proved too much, it’s been too soon for any three-year-old so far. They need to win the Leger on the bridle effectively and that doesn’t tend to happen.
“The perfect prep for the Arc seems to be a nice run a month before without too much exertion and the Leger is the opposite of that.”
Ed Chamberlin is worried that the edge has been taken off Hurricane Lane, for this year at least, with last week’s win.
“He is such a good, honest horse with such a good, honest, open trainer. My worry moving forward is if you’re a Hurricane Lane supporter for the Arc is one, it’s never been done before, and two, he was shattered after the race," he said.
"William Buick was quick to get off him, they raced over to the horse with the water. He wears his heart on his sleeve this colt; he’s honest and brilliant but I’d hold fire before backing him for the Arc.
“He put his heart and soul into that performance over a mile-and-three-quarters with the Arc not far away and I’d be amazed if that hadn’t taken the edge off him. It was a really good performance but it could have left a mark for Paris, that would be my fear.”
But maybe there’s an even simpler reason why the double has never been achieved.
David Johnson, Timeform’s Flat Editor, said: “In terms of winning a St Leger Hurricane Lane is very good, in the last ten years or so perhaps only Kew Gardens has had a Timeform rating that’s higher. Just to develop the point why Leger winners don’t necessarily go on to win the Arc – well the main reason is your typical St Leger winner isn’t generally good enough to win an Arc.
“It normally takes a performance in the low 130s to win at Longchamp where even a very good St Leger winner here is only getting a rating of 126. He has the opportunity now to go on and take on older horses and that could see him increase his rating further – that’s why he’s lagging behind a little at the moment.
“Adayar had the chance to go on and take his rating up in the King George, St Mark’s Basilica the same way in the Coral-Eclipse and Irish Champion. They are 130 plus now – I’m not sure we’ve seen the best of Hurricane Lane yet and the only time he’s been beaten was in the Cazoo Derby when it was clear he wasn’t handling the track. He could go higher yet but needs to if he's to win the Arc."
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