Matt Brocklebank highlights three antepost fancies for Royal Ascot, including the "forgotten horse" Mutakayyef in the Queen Anne.
Recommended Bets: Royal Ascot
1pt win Mutakayyef in Queen Anne Stakes at 16/1
1pt win Big Orange in Ascot Gold Cup at 16/1
1pt win Dancing Star in Diamond Jubilee Stakes at 33/1
Click here for our transparent tipping record
MUTAKAYYEF is something of a forgotten horse ahead of Royal Ascot 2017 and is consequently overpriced for the Queen Anne Stakes, one of the Group One highlights on day one of the summer spectacle.
Ribchester rightly tops the market here following his hugely impressive Lockinge Stakes victory from Lightning Spear, who is likely to reoppose, and there is every reason to believe Richard Fahey’s horse – probably the best he’s ever trained according to the man himself – is going to prove the pre-eminent miler of the season.
However, he’s already a very skinny price to follow up last year’s Jersey Stakes win with victory in the Queen Anne and there is still a very small question mark as to whether he is able to perform right up to his best on fast ground.
That is not something that’s guaranteed in the summer in Britain (it turned soft at the meeting 12 months ago), but chances are the conditions won’t be anywhere near as testing as when Ribchester recorded his PB at Newbury last time, so the odds-on quotes are worth resisting.
If it does come up quick, then that could turn out to be a double boost for the smooth-actioned Mutakayyef as William Haggas’s son of Sea The Stars – officially rated just 2lb inferior to Ribchester but widely available at 16/1 – loves to hear his hooves rattle.
Remarkably, he was let down by the weather in Middle East when last seen and finished a well-held fifth in the Dubai Turf at Meydan so the run can largely be forgotten, and based on his 2016 form the six-year-old has a massive chance at Ascot.
It was at this venue last July when he really emerged as a top-class prospect, beating Dutch Connection, and some other solid yardsticks, over the same course and distance as the Queen Anne and that came on the back of a confidence-boosting Listed win at York.
The runner-up that day was Sovereign Debt and those aren’t the only pieces of form that make him stand out at the prices as he signed off in Britain last season with a very creditable third to Postponed in the Juddmonte International, where he was just a length behind runner-up Highland Reel.
It’s no surprise he handled the move back to a mile and a quarter so well on the Knavesmire as he’d been campaigned at that sort of trip earlier in his career, but Haggas definitely considered him a miler by the end of last term and his final run before being put away for the winter confirmed as much.
He flew home for third after a slow start in the Grade One Woodbine Mile and ended up just half a length and a neck behind winner Tepin, who had earlier in the year taken Queen Anne glory back to the States with victory over Belardo.
A repeat of any of those final three performances last year would put Mutakayyef firmly in the reckoning in a race seemingly lacking any great depth and he’s one to have on side on his return to action, considering a) the aforementioned York victory that followed an eight-month break and b) his overall record fresh, which is excellent.
The risk involved with him is making the race at all, as when Haggas ruled him out of the Lockinge he reported that he didn't take his journey home from Dubai well. With this in mind, you may want to consider Sky Bet's 14/1 as they are offering the Non Runner No Bet concession on all eight Group One races at the meeting.
However, Mutakayyef has had plenty of time to recover from that trip now, so I'm happy to take the 16s with the usual ante-post risk.
There is also surely some value to be had in the Gold Cup betting and nothing appeals more than BIG ORANGE, also at 16s (General).
He’s not bred for extreme distances and, like so often in this unique race, is stepping into the unknown when it comes to stamina, but what we do know is that Michael Bell’s grizzled six-year-old stays two miles without much fuss and that he will fight like no other.
The Ascot Gold Cup is a battle of will as much as anything and, given the vast amount of experience Big Orange has gained over the past couple of years, running so well in Melbourne Cups and Dubai Gold Cups, it looks the perfect time for him to have a crack at the big one on home soil.
He’s certainly there on merit form-wise too, having won four times at Group Two level and got back to close to his best with a comfortable Group Three victory in Sandown’s Henry II Stakes last month.
He made every yard there under Frankie Dettori, galloping his rivals into submission in the kind of performance that screamed ‘Ascot’ and, providing there isn’t any rain around, which would admittedly dent his claims quite considerably, he should give the reigning champion Order Of St George a stern examination.
The favourite looks to be peaking again for his number one target but he’s only won one of his last five starts so clearly isn’t quite as bombproof as the betting would suggest.
The Diamond Jubilee Stakes is another race in which the market leader could prove to be vulnerable. Limato is a staggeringly good sprinter on his day but the July Cup and Prix de la Foret winner is clearly not a straightforward horse to train and he disappointed when tried over a mile again (beaten favourite in last year’s Lockinge on only previous attempt) at the Breeders’ Cup.
He then completely bombed out in the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan in March following heavy rain and while trainer Henry Candy seems fairly confident a “bigger, stronger” Limato will sweep all before him in the sprint division back in Britain, he doesn’t look one in which to have absolute faith.
Tasleet burst onto the scene with victory over Magical Memory in the Duke Of York and must be a serious player if cheekpieces continue to work the oracle, while fifth-placed The Tin Man was conceding that pair weight and his victory on Champions Day in the autumn showed how deadly he can be when he’s on song, albeit he beat Growl and Brando who had both progressed from the handicap ranks.
The Tin Man, representing a James Fanshawe stable that always seems to be primed to the minute for this fixture, is a perfectly plausible alternative to the favourite given he should improve for his comeback and will now be racing on level weights with Tasleet and Magical Memory, but it could pay to cast the net a little wider.
DANCING STAR was only getting 2lb from Growl when beating him into fourth in the Stewards’ Cup so strictly may not have that much to find with The Tin Man on her very best form and she looks to be coming to hand gradually this term after improving out of all recognition during a busy three-year-old campaign.
Andrew Balding made it quite clear she’d need the run when returning in the Palace House Stakes, the first time she’d tackled the minimum trip since her debut – when beaten into fourth – and she duly struggled to cope with the out-and-out speedsters, before keeping on at the one pace.
That sharpener clearly didn’t do her any harm as she stepped up on the bare form when beaten a neck in a Listed race at Windsor last month and although it was disappointing at the time that she wasn’t able to win at that level, it still looked to be a case of her slowly coming back to boiling point.
The daughter of Aqlaam is from a line of speedy types who improved with age – her granddam, Lochangel (half-sister to the brilliant late-maturing sprinter Lochsong), won the Nunthorpe as a four-year-old – so she's got time on her side and after being no bigger than 18/1 when the Diamond Jubilee market was first formed, the standout 33/1 (Sky Bet) on offer now looks a major overreaction to what may ultimately prove to be two pretty pleasing prep runs for the filly’s principal target.
With the NRNB concession in mind as well, she looks a tantalising proposition at such odds.
Posted at 0945 on 07/06/17.