The Vuelta a España begins on Saturday, and cycling expert Philip Thompson sets the scene for the action ahead, nominating three recommended bets to consider.
Cycling betting tips: Vuelta a España
3pts Giulio Ciccone King of the Mountains Classification at 10/3 (William Hill)
0.5pt e.w. Derek Gee to win the Vuelta a España at 40/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pt e.w. Antonio Tiberi to win the Vuelta a España at 50/1 (Betvictor 1/5 1,2,3)
*Derek Gee withdrew from the race after publication of this preview
The end of summer signals different things for different sports, but in cycling it means one thing: the Vuelta a España, the final Grand Tour of the year.
The 2025 edition marks the 80th running of Spain’s showpiece race whereby 23 teams and more than 180 riders will roll out from Turin, Italy on 23rd August to tackle the first of 21 stages before reaching Madrid on 14th September.
This year’s Vuelta will be no place for the faint‑hearted, with those challenging for the General Classification contenders set to tackle a gruelling ten summit finishes in pursuit of the iconic red leader’s jersey, La Roja. The route is packed with iconic ascents and unpredictable terrain, promising high drama and plenty of betting opportunities.
It wouldn’t be the Vuelta without fireworks on almost every stage, but the two most likely to decide the overall battle are Stages 13 and 20.
Stage 13 is the longest stage of this year’s Vuelta and ramps up to an eye‑watering 23.5% in the final 3 km. For anyone not in peak condition – or already worn down by the first 12 stages – this is the most feared day of the race, and it’s where General Classification ambitions can be shattered in a matter of minutes.
Stage 20 represents the final opportunity for contenders to overturn time gaps before Madrid. Three weeks of accumulated fatigue will make survival alone a challenge and the combination of a steep gradient, a concrete surface, and the climb’s technical demands means that leaders must balance defence with daring – and challengers will view it as their last, desperate shot at glory.
Whilst the sport’s current dominant force, Tadej Pogačar, may be absent, the 2025 field still boasts a potent blend of seasoned campaigners and rising stars — headed by the standout attraction, two‑time Tour de France champion and odds‑on favourite, Jonas Vingegaard.
The Danish star may have fallen short of reclaiming the yellow jersey from Pogačar, but he still produced a string of powerful performances to secure second in this year’s Tour de France, growing stronger as the race progressed despite a disrupted build‑up.
Undeniably the best climber in the world after Pogačar, Vingegaard arrives with a streamlined, well‑drilled Team Visma–Lease a Bike that includes both 2023 Vuelta winner Sepp Kuss and two-time Paris-Nice winner Matteo Jorgenson in supporting roles.
With the start list lacking its usual depth, this looks a prime opportunity for him to salvage a major victory from a season that has yet to yield full reward for his exceptional talent.
This is very much Team Visma – Lease A Bike’s race to lose, and it would be no surprise were they to favour a more patient, controlled approach than usual – with the legendary L’Angliru on Stage 13 looking the perfect launchpad for Vingegaard to stamp his authority before the entering final week.
As is so often the case, the biggest threat to Visma–Lease a Bike’s hopes of landing a second Grand Tour of the year is likely to come from Team UAE, who line up with a formidable roster led by Juan Ayuso and João Almeida.
Proven Grand Tour performers, each has multiple notable wins to their name this season — Ayuso taking the “Race of the Two Seas” at Tirreno–Adriatico in March, and Almeida claiming overall victory in both the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse.
However, with Jonas Vingegaard the standout force to beat, this is something of a role reversal for UAE Team Emirates, who are more accustomed to holding that status amongst their own ranks.
The lingering question is whether Ayuso and Almeida can work in perfect harmony when it matters most to unsettle the Dane in the mountains, and those doubts, coupled with their relatively short odds, make them of limited appeal from a betting perspective.
Other notable contenders from a General Classification standpoint are Giulio Ciccone, Derek Gee, Ben O’Connor, Egan Bernal and Antonio Tiberi.
Ciccone was forced out of this year’s Giro after a heavy crash on Stage 14 but rebounded in style with victory at the San Sebastián Classic and a strong ride at the Vuelta a Burgos in early August. Arriving in peak form, a podium finish isn’t beyond him, though as a former King of the Mountains at both the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France, his greatest appeal lies in the mountains classification market (10/3).
At 28, Gee may be a latecomer to the Grand Tour General Classification scene, but 2025 has seen him reach new heights — taking third at the Tour of the Alps and fourth at both Tirreno–Adriatico and the Giro d’Italia.
More defensive in style than many of his rivals, Gee prefers to hold a steady rhythm on long climbs rather than launch speculative attacks, a tactic that has served him well in maintaining consistency over three weeks. Solid, measured, but far from slow, this Vuelta could well present his best opportunity yet to claim a Grand Tour podium.
O’Connor and Bernal are both proven Grand Tour podium finishers. O’Connor claimed a surprise runner‑up spot behind Primož Roglič in last year’s Vuelta, thanks in large part to a bold Stage 6 solo break that earned him a lead of over four minutes — an advantage he clung to until Stage 19.
His stage victory at this year’s Tour de France underlined his resilience when the road turns brutal, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll be afforded such freedom again; another stage victory looks a more realistic target as his team continue their hunt for UCI points.
Bernal, meanwhile, appeared destined for dominance after his 2019 Tour de France triumph and added the Giro d’Italia in 2021. However, his career trajectory has been blighted by serious back problems and a horrific crash in 2022. A top‑10 finish at this year’s Giro showed the class remains, but lingering doubts over whether his body can withstand three hard weeks make him a tough sell from a betting perspective.
Bahrain Victorious have endured their share of misfortune in recent years, but in Antonio Tiberi they possess a rider more than capable of upsetting the apple cart – provided he gets a clear run.
Winner of the young rider’s classification at the 2024 Giro, Tiberi was riding strongly in last year’s Vuelta before heatstroke halted his progress, and he also held genuine podium ambitions in this year’s Giro before a crash ended his hopes.
His season since has appeared to be a steady build towards this race, and with a route featuring long, testing ascents that play to his strengths, he looks a lively candidate to gatecrash the podium.
Much like the fight for the red jersey, the points classification looks at the mercy of one rider - Mads Pedersen. The powerful Dane, winner of the coveted green jersey at the 2022 Vuelta, added the Giro’s "Ciclamino" jersey to his palmarès earlier this season.
With teammate Jonathan Milan claiming the Tour de France points title and meaningful challengers in short supply – especially if the recently‑injured Jasper Philipsen fails to line up – Pedersen holds an outstanding chance to complete a rare points‑classification treble for his Lidl‑Trek team.
For those feeling particularly patriotic, any British success at this year’s Vuelta is most likely to come via Tom Pidcock. Now riding for Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team after leaving Ineos Grenadiers, the Yorkshireman has had an up‑and‑down 2025 – impressing when chasing home Pogačar at Strade Bianche, but disappointing over three weeks at the Giro in May.
However, last month’s runner‑up overall finish — plus a stage win — at the Arctic Race of Norway suggests he’s back in form. While he’s publicly targeted a top‑10 finish, Pidcock’s combination of climbing and descending prowess, along with his one‑day racing pedigree, makes him a strong candidate for at least one stage victory at this year’s Vuelta.
In summary, Vingegaard – backed by a highly disciplined Visma–Lease a Bike squad – surely has only to navigate the route safely to claim victory.
With previous winners and podium finishers largely absent, the race looks primed for emerging talents like Gee and Tiberi to outperform their current odds and mount a genuine podium challenge by the time the race reaches Madrid.
In the secondary classifications, Ciccone shapes as a strong pick for the mountains jersey, while Pedersen should encounter little resistance in his bid for the points title.
Posted at 1600 BST on 20/08/25
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