Nathan Jackson previews the Vuelta a Espana, where Primoz Roglic can get the better of his teammate and rival Jonas Vingegaard.
Cycling betting tips: Vuelta a Espana
3pts Primoz Roglic to win Vuelta a Espana at 11/4 (BetVictor)
2pts Oier Lazkano to win 1+ stages at 5/2 (Unibet, Sky Bet)
2pts Lennard Kamna to win 1+ stages at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Marijn van den Berg to win points classification at 5/1 (General)
After a hectic three weeks of racing at the Tour de France, an unbelievable time trial from Jonas Vingegaard was the only thing to split him from Tadej Pogacar on his way to winning the prestigious Maillot Jaune for the second year in a row, we now head to Spain for the final Grand Tour of the year.
The 78th edition of la Vuelta a Espana covers 3153km across four flat stages, six hilly stages, an individual time trial of 25.8km, an opening team TT of 14.8km, and seven Mountain stages including a summit finish at the top of Col du Tourmalet for the first time in the Vuelta’s history.
With a strong line up of general classification riders set to feature, it looks to be an exciting three weeks of racing to round off this year’s Grand Tours, so let's take a deeper look into some runners and standout bets.
Defending faces biggest challenge yet
Although it wasn’t the Giro d’Italia we were hoping for from Remco Evenepoel after his Vuelta a Espana success last year, having blown everyone out the water in Stage 1 time trial many thought he had the Maglia Rosa all but sewn up but the aftermath of stage nine proved otherwise.
Despite winning the time trial by a second, Evenepoel tested positive for Covid post-race and had to withdraw. We’ll never know just how far he would have gone otherwise but my guess would be a top two finish.
The defending Vuelta a Espana champion faces his toughest opposition yet in a Grand Tour along with a tougher parcour. Over the three weeks we’ll see just how good Remco is and whether or not he can stay with the top general classification riders.
Despite Soudal-Quickstep having the weakest team to support Remco he is fresh off winning the World Championship Time Trial and altitude training with questions to answer I think we’ll see a determined Remco who will want to defend his title at all costs but may have to settle for a minor podium place.
Last year’s third Juan Ayuso is Spain’s best chance of getting a home winner. The highly rated UAE Emirates rider will be looking to replicate last year’s heroics after he became the youngest rider to podium in the Vuelta a Espana and he’ll have a strong support team to do so.
After a frustrating start to 2023 due to injury, Ayuso looked impressive with two stage wins at Tour de Suisse on his way to finishing second, nine seconds behind Mattias Skjelmose and 36 seconds in front of last year’s Vuelta winner Evenepoel. Despite that form and strong domestiques I think Ayuso will just miss out on a podium spot, with a top-six finish still representing a fine effort should he manage it.
Jumbo-Visma will be aiming to create history by becoming the first team to win all three Grand Tours in the same year. After capturing the Giro d’Italia in May with PRIMOZ ROGLIC and the Tour de France in July with defending champion Jonas Vingegaard, they both now head to Spain for a shot at history.
The Jumbo-Visma roster is filled with some serious firepower and depth to achieve this, with three-time Vuelta a Espana winner Roglic and back-to-back Tour de France hero Vingegaard both leading the line for overall victory, supported by super domestique Sepp Kuss and others in a formidable line-up.
Despite the strong roster, this will be the first time that Vingegaard goes into somewhat unknown territory as he’s never competed in two Grand Tours in the same year and with no race preparation and just altitude training we may just see the Danish sensation tail off having already peaked at the Tour de France.
Roglic arrives at the Vuelta a Espana similar form to Vingegaard, having won every General Classification race he’s taken part in in 2023, most recently Vuelta a Burgos beating rivals Aleksandr Vlasov and 2023 Tour de France third Adam Yates.
At the start of the year it was Roglic’s plan for the Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a Espana double and I believe that his team will honour this wish, with Roglic in great form and having already won Vuelta a Espana three times before.
To my eye he has the edge over Vingegaard to be team leader and with the strength of the Jumbo-Visma team he is backed to pick up a fourth win in the Vuelta a Espana.
Van den Berg to deliver
Things didn’t quite click for EF Education-EasyPost at the Tour de France after winning two stages at the Giro d’Italia and they will want to make amends for that at the Vuelta, and success can come from 24-year-old Dutch rider MARIJN VAN DEN BERG.
With no team currently lined up for 2024, this is Van den Berg's big chance to put himself in the shop window for potential suitors; he’ll be riding with a point to prove to gain a contract for 2024 and, despite this being his first Grand Tour he can certainly make an impression on the points classification.
He has two points classification wins this season already with the first coming at Region Pays de la Loire Tour where he beat Bryan Coquard, who subsequently went on to finish third in points at this year’s Tour de France, and the second occurring at La Route d'Occitanie - La Dépêche du Midi with a stage victory along the way.
Alongside being able to compete in sprints, Van den Berg's favoured terrain is arguably those hilly stages as this is where most of his career wins have come from. Given his ability to climb while preserving energy where pure sprinters will struggle to do so, this will put him in an favourable position come the sprint.
With six hilly stages coming up, I’m backing Van den Berg to be firmly in the hunt for the points classification, and I certainly wouldn’t be put off backing him to win a stage either.
Stage set for Kamna
Bora-Hansgrohe have enjoyed success at both of this year’s Grand Tours and there is no reason why they can’t keep it going through German rider LENNARD KAMNA, who is backed to pick up a stage.
Kamna has had a somewhat of a consistent, under-the-radar season so far, starting the year finishing fourth overall at Tirreno-Adriatico behind eventual Giro d’Italia winner Roglic. He has top-10 finishes including a stage victory in the mountains at the Tour of the Alps, when finishing sixth overall.
Kamna headed into the Giro d’Italia as joint leader with Aleksandr Vlasov but when Vlasov abandoned after stage 10 following a positive Covid-19 test, Kamna became sole leader and managed a career best ninth place in the GC.
Bora-Hansgrohe look to be sending key mountain domestiques to this year’s Vuelta with Sergio Higuita, Cian Uijtdebroeks and Emanuel Buchmann all lined up.
Having already recorded a stage win at both the 2020 edition of the Tour de France and the 2022 edition of the Giro d’Italia, both of which came in Kamna’s favoured terrain, the mountains, he looks suited by the set-up and can capture another at odds-against.
Lazkano can land home triumph for Movistar
We have seen a mixture of results from the Movistar Team in this year’s Grand Tours, but after a disappointing Tour de France the team arrive at their home Grand Tour with a balanced roster to attack on all terrain.
Of this roster, 2023 Spanish National Road Race champion OIER LAZKANO stands out, having caught the eye when finishing second at Dwars door Vlaasnderen behind Christophe Laporte and since backed it up.
With six stages over Lazkano’s favoured hilly terrain, I expect to see him attacking, showing off his Spanish National champions jersey on home roads and staying away to give Team Movistar their first stage win in the Vuelta since 2021.
Posted at 1105 BST on 24/08/23
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