MMA expert Will Dean signs off for the year with his preview of UFC Vegas 66, where Jared Cannonier is a strong fancy.
UFC Vegas 66 tips: Saturday December 17
1.5pts Jared Cannonier to win at evens (General)
0.5pt Cannonier to Win by TKO/KO at 15/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Saidyokub Kakhramonov to win at evens (William Hill)
Loose Cannon
The final UFC card of the year sees two of the Middleweight division’s top-10 ranked fighters squaring off in an exciting brawl, as both JARED CANNONIER and Sean Strickland look to return to winning ways.
A new lease of life has been blown into the 185lbs weight class since Alex Pereira’s shocking knockout of Israel Adesanya, as the former’s inexperience in MMA and grappling could realistically see him bested by a variety of fighters in the division. With Adesanya out of the title picture for now, every fighter in the Middleweight rankings will be looking to stake their claim as the next to challenge Poatan for the belt.
Strickland remains the only real exception to this, as he suffered an embarrassing knockout loss to Pereira in July. The outspoken Californian proved himself a competent striker in his prior six-fight winning streak, but his lack of defensive awareness and eagerness to engage in a brawl made him a perfect victim at the hands of the hard-hitting Brazilian.
Witnessing just how easily Strickland was beaten in that fight has caused many to re-evaluate Tarzan’s previous wins, where it seems he benefitted greatly by facing opponents without much knockout power. On Saturday night, Strickland will once again face a hard-hitting finisher who provides many of the same challenges that the new champion did.
Cannonier has won by knockout in 10 of his 15 professional victories and is reliable to land hard shots against any opponent that will give him a chance. Considering Strickland’s defensive liabilities, as well as his failure to score finishes himself, this seems like a great stylistic matchup for The Killa Gorilla.
To win this fight, Strickland will need to stay conscious and outstrike his opponent across 25 minutes, whereas Cannonier realistically only needs to land one clean punch. With that in mind, CANNONIER TO WIN at evens is the bet for the final main event of 2022. For an added wager, CANNONIER TO WIN BY TKO/KO also appeals.
Said showdown
UFC Vegas 66 may not have a whole host of well-known names attached to the card, but the matchmakers have done a great job in treating the hardcore fans to a variety of exciting fights to round out the year – with Said Nurmagomedov’s showdown against SAIDYOKUB KAKHRAMONOV potentially being the pick of the bunch.
While many will undoubtedly recognise the surname, Said is neither a relative of Khabib, nor an emulator of his fighting style. Instead, the former adopts a much more striking-based approach – utilising a high volume of spinning attacks to disrupt his opponent's rhythm.
Nurmagomedov has had success with these attacks, most notably in his knockout victory over Ricardo Ramos, but his over-reliance on them has also gotten him into trouble. Once his foe is able to make the read on when Nurmagomedov is about to spin, a well-timed takedown attempt will tip the balance in their favour.
His opponent, Kakhramonov, will be looking to exploit this and land a high volume of takedowns of his own. The Uzbekistani fighter forced Ronnie Lawrence to the mat on 10 occasions in his last bout, on the way to one of the most impressive victories of 2022.
As long as he stays wary of the explosive arsenal of Nurmagomedov, he should find a fair amount of grappling success. The longer this fight lasts, the more dominant Kakhramonov should expect to be, as his opponent has shown a clear tendency to slow down in the final round of the fight – something that will only be exacerbated against a relentless grappler.
Overall, this is a well-matched fight between two serious prospects in the division, but Kakhramonov appears to be the more diverse martial artist with the superior fight IQ and better cardio. Nurmagomedov may have achieved the more impressive record on paper, but skill-for-skill I do not see much justification for Kakhramonov being the underdog. Therefore, at evens, a wager on KAKHRAMONOV is recommended.
Posted at 1705 GMT on 15/12/22
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