Saturday's Bets of the Day: Selections for horse racing, football and golf
It's a Grade One Saturday in the world of horse racing, where the best bets are on the undercard, while we've also tips for football and golf.
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Racing
The Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained KAPGARRY absolutely bolted up at Wetherby at the start of the month and seemed to leave his Warwick run well behind.
The handicapper has reacted by shunting him up 9lb but he’s still rated below his peak mark achieved over hurdles and he looks capable of becoming a better chaser still based on his bloodless success in West Yorkshire.
He’s going up in grade on Saturday in a race packed with interesting potential improvers but this lightly-raced six-year-old is the kind of horse Twiston-Davies will have plenty of fun with over the winter.
In addition, following all Tom Bellamy’s rides for the yard in the past would have yielded a tidy £1 level stakes profit of £19.74.
BOLD PLAN looks worth backing in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday.
Evan Williams’ horse had some really good form as a novice last season and he hinted that he might be well treated off Saturday’s mark of 130 when he beat everything bar Poker Play off that rating in handicap company at Uttoxeter in March.
He could’ve gone novice chasing this campaign on the back of that but he turned out over hurdles at Chepstow last month and it’s interesting that Williams perseveres with him over timber despite being well beaten in 10th.
It looks likely that he needed that run badly and he’s come down a few pounds, too, so it could be worth taking a chance that he comes on significantly for the outing as he looked such a good prospect last season.
He’s a very good jumper and Haydock should be ideal, while Robbie Power is an interesting jockey booking and his quiet riding style could suit this horse very well indeed.
Claiming rider William Marshall has a decent mount in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle aboard Falcon Sun, beaten eight lengths by Benny's Bridge at Cheltenham last month.
However, in the same race, WHOSHOTTHESHERIFF was travelling like a winner before over-jumping and coming down at the second last.
Promising when trained by Gordon Elliot in Ireland, the five-year-old had won his previous two starts for new handler Phil Kirby at Sedgefield (2m4f) and Carlisle (2m1f) and could rate much higher in the future.
Football
Before the events on late Tuesday/early Wednesday, this would really have been a tough one to call with both sides out of form, but with Jose Mourinho taking charge of his first game as spurs boss (that still feels weird to type!), you can only see it going one way now.
As the Portuguese said on his arrival, he has a quality squad at his disposal and there should be a positive reaction to his appointment. Throw in the London derby atmosphere and this could be a great game to come back to after the international break.
With their poor performances of late, it remains to be seen whether Manuel Pellegrini's side will score, but the odds-against price available on SPURS TO WIN WITH OVER 1.5 GOALS in the game looks too good to turn down.
It's the big one of the weekend and about as intriguing as big games get as Manchester City go into the game in unfamiliar circumstances, coming off a bad defeat and sitting in fourth in the table - looking up at Chelsea a point above them.
City's defence was a shambles at Anfield and, as good as they are going forward, if they're that bad against Frank Lampard's flying Blues then they'll have their hands full again. Chelsea have won six on the spin in the league and are the top scorers on the road - while nobody has scored more at home than City.
Everywhere you look there are goals - amazingly Chelsea's away games average five goals per match this season, and with Tammy Abraham, Mason Mount and Christian Pulisic all looking dangerous they'll fancy their chances up at the Etihad.
City always seem to score though, and Pep Guardiola normally gets a response out of his side after a loss, although he's had a little too much practice of that this season already. It's tough to call, and 5/1 on a Chelsea win looks huge given the run they're on, but preference always has to go to City at home - probably even more so when they've a point to prove.
So while we're not quite confident enough to predict a Chelsea win, there's at least a goal here for them, maybe more, and with City coming flying out of the traps, that goal could well come on the break early, in what we're anticipating to be a breathless first 45 minutes. Back BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE in the first half at close to 3/1.
After last week's welcome 12/1 winner, Saturday's Sporting Life Accumulator is an 18/1 four-fold which covers three divisions of the EFL.
Stoke, Rotherham, Peterborough and Forest Green are our selected quartet, for reasons given in the preview you can access by clicking the below image.
Golf
Ben Coley
The concern with JON RAHM coming into the DP World Tour Championship was that, after a seven-week hiatus, he might struggle to keep tabs on the likes of Rory McIlroy over the first couple of days.
After a second round which saw him pick up four shots over the closing five holes, Rahm has answered the big question and set himself up perfectly for a weekend charge from three behind - the same margin he trailed en route to victory here in 2017.
Then as is the case now, Tommy Fleetwood was playing under the pressure of a Race to Dubai battle and the feeling is that Rahm is better equipped to cope as the pair go off in pursuit of surprise halfway leader Mike Lorenzo-Vera.
The Frenchman has played wonderfully well so far but, as was the case with Zander Lombard last weekend, the pressure is sure to tell. He's yet to win on the European Tour and to do so in an event with a winner's cheque of $3million would be quite something.
If Lorenzo-Vera falters, that leaves Rahm as by far the most likely to capitalise, the three shots he has in hand over McIlroy likely to prove decisive. He's favourite - none of the above is controversial - but at best prices of 5/2 he's still underestimated.
Rahm should also benefit from being in the penultimate group alongside Tom Lewis, and he is fancied to take control of the tournament from here and perhaps even lead into Sunday.
