Will Dean previews UFC Vegas 62, where a pair of underdogs get the vote including the experienced Cub Swanson.
UFC betting tips: UFC Vegas 62
2pts Cub Swanson to win at 7/4 (General)
2pts Brandon Royval to win at 2/1 (General)
2pts Mana Martinez vs Brandon Davis to Last Under 2.5 Rounds at 11/10 (General)
0.5pt Mana Martinez to Win by TKO/KO in Round 1 at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
No swan song for Swanson
CUB SWANSON makes his 22nd UFC appearance in Saturday night’s Co-Main Event, where he will attempt to snap the three-fight winning streak of 28-year-old Jonathan Martinez.
Swanson is a veteran of the sport who hasn’t always received the credit he deserves. With wins over current Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira and #8 pound-for-pound ranking Dustin Poirier, the Californian always had the potential to make it to the top of the division. Looking through Swanson’s record only reaffirms this, as seven of his 12 professional losses have come against former UFC champions or those who have competed for a belt.
Considering that Swanson is a near 2/1 underdog in this fight against Martinez, the oddsmakers clearly believe the soon-to-be 39-year-old is on a swift decline. Age is undefeated in MMA, but Swanson hasn’t shown much of a visible decline in his performances, having won three of his last four bouts.
Unless the last 10 months have been especially cruel to Swanson, I am expecting this fight with Martinez to be incredibly close and hard fought. Both men are dedicated strikers, but Swanson is clearly the harder hitter and more potent finisher of the two. Furthermore, in terms of durability, Martinez actually looks to be the frailer of the two – having been knocked down on double the number of occasions than Swanson in their last 10 UFC appearances (against significantly weaker opposition).
Lately, judges seem much more focused on scoring rounds in favour of the fighter who inflicts more damage, and Swanson should be the more likely of the two to threaten a finish. The betting line for Saturday’s fight seems to be overvaluing the age discrepancy between both fighters, and I think there is a fair argument to consider Swanson a slight favourite here. At 7/4, you’ll be hard pressed to find better value on the entire card than backing SWANSON TO WIN.
Royval rumble
BRANDON ROYVAL and Askar Askarov have been on the periphery of the UFC Flyweight title picture for some time. With champions Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo scheduled for a record-breaking fourth title fight in January, the rest of the division has been overwhelmed by legitimate contenders waiting in the wings. To decide who takes precedence over the other, Royval and Askarov will compete on Saturday night for the number two contender spot.
While they may find themselves in similar positions in the rankings, the comparisons end there as Royval and Askarov fight with completely differing styles. The Russian is calculated and wants to calmly pick his opponent apart on the feet or smother them on the ground, whereas Royval wants to create chaos and force his opponents into a frenetically paced slugfest. Both men’s preferred styles seem like the perfect game-plan to neutralise the threat of the other – making this matchup an intriguing one.
Askarov looked invincible on his initial ascent of the Flyweight division, but his loss to Kai Kara-France in March may have highlighted a key weakness. After some early success with his wrestling, he become overwhelmed by the New Zealander’s resilience and forward pressure, ultimately fatiguing in the third round and losing a decision. Against Royval, Askarov will face the same challenges, but to a much more dangerous extent.
Technically, Askarov is the much more composed and well-developed martial artist, but Royval’s ability to make his opponents work could well make that redundant. If there was ever a fighter in MMA that you could trust to take a chance as an underdog, the American is your man. At 2/1, backing ROYVAL TO WIN is a chance worth taking.
Hard-hitting headliners
Before the main card action takes place, MANA MARTINEZ faces Brandon Davis in a brawl that is sure to whet a fight fan’s appetite. Both men have struggled to leave their mark on the UFC’s Bantamweight division, suffering losses in each of their last bouts, which indicates that one man may see himself cut from the promotion should he fall short on Saturday night.
With their UFC careers potentially on the line, fans should expect both men to come out aggressive and ready to impress. Martinez and Davis have both been prolific finishers in their respective MMA careers so far, with 20 of their combined 35 bouts finishing before the final bell.
Davis has been known to push a ferocious pace with his striking, but Martinez will certainly oblige him once both fighters meet at boxing range. Overall, it seems that Martinez is the heavier hitter of the two and, with Davis suffering a particularly brutal knockout loss late last year, Manaboi seems the more likely of the two to force a stoppage.
Regardless of which fighter gets their hand raised, both know that an emphatic, highlight reel finish would be the perfect statement to make. With so much on the line for both fighters, backing the fight to last UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS seems the perfect way to capitalise on the action at 11/10. For an added wager, 6/1 for Martinez to WIN BY KO IN R1 also catches the eye.
Posted at 0945 BST on 14/10/22
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