MMA expert Will Dean looks ahead to UFC Vegas 39 this weekend, with one method of victory fancied across the night.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 39
2pts Mackenzie Dern by Submission at 11/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Phil Hawes to win by KO or Submission at 13/10 (Bet365)
1pt Matheus Nicolau to win inside the distance at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Matheus Nicolau to win by Submission at 5/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Dangerous Dern
Saturday night’s main event between Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez is an intriguing clash of styles. Dern is widely considered the most dangerous female grappler in the UFC, while Rodriguez is certainly one of the more complete strikers across all three divisions.
Both fighters bring a variety of skills and attributes to the cage, but their weaknesses also add to the intrigue of this bout. Dern’s striking has appeared average at best so far, and her wrestling is ineffective and inconsistent, sometimes preventing her from demonstrating her world class Jiu-Jitsu.
Rodriguez should be the clear minute winner for as long as this fight stays standing, but her takedown defence and grappling from the bottom are a serious concern. If Dern is able to get her fully flat on the mat, it seems inevitable that a submission will follow shortly after.
The main event status of this fight should prove to be the deciding factor, as the extra fourth and fifth rounds will give Dern ample time to find the finish. The BJJ prodigy has managed to submit four UFC opponents so far, having landed just two takedowns inside the Octagon.
Her opportunistic fighting style means that, should Rodriguez slip, lose her balance or find herself on the ground for even a second, Dern will swarm and potentially lock up a submission within the blink of an eye.
Rodriguez therefore needs to fight the perfect fight for what will likely be 25 whole minutes, which seems like an unrealistic expectation. Despite Dern being the increasingly heavier favourite, it feels very unlikely that anything other than a tap out will guide the American to victory, so backing DERN TO WIN BY SUBMISSION at 11/10 seems a more appealing route.
Megatron Transforming
Phil Hawes has endured criticism and doubt from UFC fans in each of his three fights within the company, with many questioning if his cardio is good enough to function at an elite level.
While these concerns were once valid, the New Jersey Middleweight has passed every test with flying colours; finishing a fight early in the first round, proving his mettle by surviving a turbulent round three and, most recently, showing improvement in his endurance and fighting comfortably for 15 whole minutes.
By silencing the naysayers, Hawes has solidified himself as a legitimate prospect at 185lbs and has the potential to extend his winning streak to eight against Deron Winn.
The protege of former double-champion and Olympic wrestler Daniel Cormier, Winn’s career has suffered due to him being undersized for the division. Standing at 5’6, he will be six inches shorter than Hawes, also giving up 7.5 inches of reach.
Such a challenge will be nothing new to Winn, who relies on his high level wrestling as an equaliser. It has served him well so far, but on Saturday night he will be facing another Division 1 college wrestler that should be knowledgeable and physical enough to dictate where the fight takes place.
Having already displayed cardio issues of his own in recent UFC fights, Winn could be in danger of being finished at any point on Saturday night. He will need to secure as much top control time as possible, but consistently attempting and failing to land takedowns will sap his cardio drastically in the early goings.
Hawes has already proven his early stopping power, winning nine of his 11 wins in the first two rounds, but a tired and wilted Winn could even provide an opening for Megatron’s first ever third round victory.
Hawes has the skills to nullify Winn’s best weapon, and it is unlikely that Winn’s cardio is good enough to capitalise on Hawes’ biggest weakness. Therefore, outside of an unexpected knockout victory of his own, I struggle to see exactly how Winn gets his hand raised here.
Instead, he will likely find himself stuck on the feet against a superior striker with serious power and a massive size and reach advantage. Megatron has faced two very durable fighters in his last two outings, so it seems HAWES TO WIN INSIDE THE DISTANCE at 13/10 is being undervalued by the bookmakers.
No judges for Nicolau
Matheus Nicolau made a triumphant return to the UFC in March, reminding combat sports enthusiasts why they were bemused by his release in 2018.
The Brazilian won three of his four bouts in his first stint in the company, but with the Flyweight division seemingly having no future, he was let go when he suffered his first loss.
Thankfully, the 125lbs division has been revitalised in recent times by the likes of Henry Cejudo, Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno, meaning Nicolau is here to stay this time.
While Nicolau’s status as a prospect should see the 28-year-old rise up the rankings in years to come, the same cannot be said for Tim Elliott. The 29-fight veteran is also in his second UFC tenure, but has firmly solidified himself as a gatekeeper at Flyweight, recently losing three times in a row to other fighters in the top 15.
The Missouri native has always been a dominant wrestler, but struggles against any opponent that shows enough resistance and does not break when subdued on the mat.
Nicolau is yet to be tested by a dedicated wrestler himself due to his great BJJ skills, with many cautious of leaving themselves vulnerable in a scramble. For Elliott to have any success in this fight, he is going to have to put himself in a lot of precarious positions.
If Nicolau can keep the fight standing, then the former amateur boxer should completely dominate with his hands. Whilst Elliott does possess incredible durability, he was rocked badly in last year’s loss to Askar Askarov and will leave himself open to a submission if he shoots out of desperation.
Unfortunately, such an outcome has proven far too common for Elliott, who has suffered a submission loss in five of his 11 career defeats. He may have a positive first round, but is viable to capitulate midway through the fight when his opponent puts up a spirited effort.
His opponent has finished in 10 of his 18 victories, making NICOLAU TO WIN INSIDE THE DISTANCE at 3/1 an appealing wager. Whilst the Brazilian’s striking has looked impressive and powerful, the 5/1 price for NICOLAU TO WIN BY SUBMISSION is too good to pass up at a smaller stake.
Posted at 2030 BST (06/10/21)
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