MMA expert Will Dean looks ahead to UFC 280 in Abu Dhabi, where there's mouthwatering action from prelims through to the main event.
UFC 280 betting tips
1pt Charles Oliveira to win in rounds 1 or 2 at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Petr Yan to win by decision at 21/20 (General)
1pt Muhammad Mokaev to win by TKO/KO at 13/5 (General)
The Lightweight division has arguably been the UFC’s most exciting and talented weight class of all time. From the early days of B.J. Penn’s bloody submission victory over Joe Stevenson, to Frankie Edgar’s legendary display of heart in a trilogy against Gray Maynard, 155lbs has always delivered blockbuster entertainment.
The division was also responsible for MMA’s huge rise in popularity over the last decade, with Conor McGregor being the first fighter to achieve 'Double Champ' status when he claimed the Lightweight belt in 2016. A subsequent feud with the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov catapulted the sport to its greatest heights, and the Russian’s hotly anticipated showdown with Tony Ferguson kept fans engaged for the years that followed.
Unfortunately, the aforementioned bout between the now retired Nurmagomedov and Ferguson never materialised, and we were robbed of the chance to witness possibly the most intriguing matchup and highest level of Mixed Martial Arts that the world had ever seen. However, UFC 280’s main event serves as the new generation’s equivalent of that showdown, and it just might be even better.
Clash at the top
Islam Makhachev’s 12-fight run in the UFC has been almost flawless. Aside from a quick knockout loss in his second appearance for the organisation, he has made light work of all his other opponents – absorbing less than one significant strike per 15 minutes.
His ability to force fights to the mat and keep them there can only be compared to the great Nurmagomedov, his lifelong friend and training partner. From the moment the UFC Hall-of-Famer retired, all of his efforts went into promoting Makhachev and guiding his journey to the top of the division.
CHARLES OLIVEIRA’s ascent to UFC gold has been much more complicated. Having competed for the organisation on 30 occasions, Do Bronx was widely considered a fringe top-10 fighter for the majority of his career. Fans always saw the Brazilian as supremely talented, but his consistent habit of wilting in high pressure situations led many to write him off as nothing more than an exciting fighter to watch out for on the preliminaries.
It is hard to say exactly what changed in Oliveira’s career to produce such dominant performances across the last four years, but no longer can anyone accuse the Brazilian of struggling with adversity. In each of his last three title fights, he has clearly been hurt by his opponent's strikes but has found a way to battle back. Against Makhachev this weekend, Oliveira is certainly going to need to be at his most resilient.
The most intriguing part of UFC 280's main event is seeing exactly how much success Makhachev can have in keeping Oliveira grounded. The Brazilian has some of the best offensive grappling in MMA today, and will absolutely threaten the Russian with a variety of sweeps and submissions from the bottom if he is taken down. Whether or not Makhachev can stifle Oliveira’s offence will be the key determining factor when it comes to the fight's outcome.
The main event is therefore an incredibly hard fight to call, as Oliveira could easily look like just another one of Makhachev’s victims if he cannot overcome the smothering ground pressure. He is currently the underdog, but the value seems to lie in backing OLIVIERA TO WIN IN ROUNDS 1 OR 2.
If he is to have his hand raised when all is said and done, it is almost certainly going to come via a finish, as 30 of his 33 professional wins have. The longer this fight goes, the more comfortable Makhachev will become, so Do Bronx will be looking to end things as early as possible to reclaim his Lightweight belt. There's enough in the price to back him to do so.
Evidence points to Petr
Before the two title fights at the top of the billing, UFC 280’s main card hosts an intriguing showdown between PETR YAN and one of MMA’s brightest emerging talents, Sean O’Malley.
Ever since Sugar Sean emphatically won a UFC contract on the first season of Dana White’s Contender Series, fans have been divided in their opinions of him. The flashy striker, whose hair is as colourful as his personality, has been one of the more successful fighters in UFC history to grow fame and popularity outside of the cage.
The 27-year-old has been mercenary-like in his approach to combat sports as a result, admittedly having no problem in taking easier fights on a UFC Pay-Per-View as a way of making money and selling tickets for the company. In a climate where many UFC fans are passionately disputing the logistics of fighter pay, O'Malley's approach has been viewed as both dishonourable and opportunistic, depending on who you ask.
Saturday’s bout against Yan should finally put all debates about him to rest, as he steps up to face a former champion and current number-one contender. Fans will finally get to see where O’Malley’s true potential lies, and discover how much of a star he can really be.
The betting odds reflect what many will have concluded when this fight was announced – that Yan is too great a step up in competition at this stage of O’Malley’s career. The Russian is one of the most intelligent strikers in all of MMA, and his relentless forward pressure and debilitating leg kicks should cause the his opponent problems all night long.
O’Malley certainly has a mountain to climb here without a clear and obvious path to victory, but his defensive attributes should save him from suffering a stoppage loss to Yan, a notoriously slow starter who takes time to properly analyse his opponent’s tendencies.
O’Malley’s 64% striking defence should prevent any major damage from being dealt, so backing YAN TO WIN BY DECISION at 21/20 is the preferred play for such an exciting fight.
Britain’s bright future
UFC 280 takes place in Abu Dhabi, presenting a great opportunity for UK fans to catch MUHAMMAD MOKAEV in the preliminaries. The 22-year-old has long been touted as one of the hottest prospects in all of MMA, racking up an impressive 23-0 record before going 8-0 as a professional.
Doubters were unconvinced that The Punisher was ready for the lofty heights of the UFC, but a 58-second knockout of Cody Durden in London in March silenced them. Mokaev followed up the perfect debut with a 15-minute display of grappling dominance just four months later – setting the record for the most takedowns landed in a three-round UFC Flyweight bout.
The UFC clearly know that they have a star on their hands and are paying close attention to the way they are matching up the young Mancunian. On Saturday night, Mokaev faces Malcolm Gordon, a Canadian grappler who has struggled to adapt to the UFC’s level of competition.
Mokaev is the biggest betting favourite on the entire card, and it is hard to disagree with the oddsmakers. Not only does he appear to already be the much more complete martial artist, he is also a stylistic nightmare for Gordon. Mokaev is already a high-level grappler who can deal with the submission offence of his opponent, rendering Gordon without options.
As always, delving into the available props for this fight will be the only place to find value, and backing MOKAEV TO WIN BY TKO/KO appears to be the best play at 13/5. Gordon is one of the least durable fighters in the UFC and has already suffered four knockout losses in his career. With the Canadian’s grappling being his biggest strength, it seems that Mokaev’s path of least resistance would be to keep the fight standing and secure his third KO win.
Posted at 1620 BST on 20/10/22
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.