Will Dean has four selections for UFC 268 with Justin Gaethje and Bobby Green backed to win in very different ways.
MMA betting tips: UFC 268
2pts Namajunas v Zhang to go the distance at 11/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Justin Gaethje to win by KO or submission at 10/11 (bet365)
2pts Bobby Green to win by decision at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Dustin Jacoby to win by decision at 5/2 (General)
How to watch UFC 268
- The action is live on BT Sport 2 HD from 0000-0600 GMT on Sunday
With a phenomenal main card at the top of the billing, UFC 268 looks set to be one of the best shows of the year. The event is headlined by the most anticipated rematch available in the sport, as Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington provide the sequel to their feud. The co-main event also has a similar narrative, as Weili Zhang looks to avenge her shocking loss to Rose Namajunas and reclaim her belt.
Before those title bouts take place, Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler look to steal the show in a number one contender match that promises to be a slugfest. It's going to be a night to remember in UFC.
Rose-tinted Glasses
Rose Namajunas and Weili Zhang’s showdown at UFC 261 ended in dramatic fashion. After just 78 seconds, the challenger threw a disguised head-kick that caught her opponent unaware, resulting in Namajunas being crowned the queen of the Strawweights once again.
April’s victory was reminiscent of Thug Rose’s first title win in 2017, where she scored another unexpected first round knockout over Joanna Jędrzejczyk. Much like Saturday night’s bout, that unexpected outcome also prompted conversations about an immediate rematch for the dethroned former champion, with the Polish fighter locking horns with Namajunas a short time later.
The resulting rematch saw a much more technical and cautious approach from both fighters, as Jędrzejczyk had learned not to underestimate Thug Rose’s power. At UFC 268, Zhang will likely take the same approach, paying more attention to the way Namajunas sets up her offence and focusing on dragging the fight into the later rounds, where she may actually have the advantage.
As with many fights at the top of the Women’s Strawweight division, this one is too close to call. Namajunas has rematched three opponents in her career, and the second outing has always seen the judges’ scorecards. The oddsmakers have naturally reacted to the result of the first fight, but backing the fight to go to DECISION at 11/10 holds real value in the division with the lowest finishing percentage in the UFC.
A quick Highlight
Given how exciting and memorable his previous UFC appearances have been so far, it is hard to believe that Michael Chandler has been in the organisation for less than a year. In such a short time, Iron Mike has won over even the most sceptical of viewers, almost capturing the Lightweight title in May.
The former Bellator champion has thrived in chaos so far, where it seems that both he and his opponent are seconds away from being knocked out at any point. While this is a viable strategy that has helped Chandler flourish throughout the early stages of his career, Saturday night’s opponent, JUSTIN GAETHJE, is possibly the most chaotic fighter the UFC has ever seen and may prove a step too far.
The Highlight brings pressure and power like no one else and seems to genuinely enjoy the prospect of engaging in a war with his opponent. Naturally, any fighter with such an approach must have the durability to hold their own, and Gaethje’s UFC resume speaks volumes to how much adversity and danger he can muster.
Unfortunately for Chandler, the same conclusions cannot be made. In his recent title bout against Charles Oliveira, Iron Mike was on the brink of victory before being knocked out, seemingly out of nowhere. If Saturday’s fight turns into the brawl everyone expects, then Chandler will be much the more vulnerable fighter in the cage.
Twenty of Gaethje’s 22 victories have come inside the distance, and I cannot see Chandler surviving 15 minutes in the cage with The Highlight’s thunderous leg kicks and raw power if the latter chooses to fight recklessly. Backing GAETHJE TO WIN BY KO OR SUBMISSION at 10/11 seems a much more sensible way to support the hard hitter.
Decision King
After eight years in the UFC, BOBBY GREEN is still making improvements. While he has always been one of the more skilled boxers in the division, he has added a high volume and solid defensive grappling to his game in recent years, making him a very tricky fighter to beat over a 15-minute period.
A lack of killer instinct is all that prevents Green from being a top-15 fighter in the Lightweight division, but the frequency at which he wins by decision often creates a valuable and reliable betting opportunity.
Green has seen the scorecards in 13 of his UFC 16 bouts so far, and against a durable opponent like Al Iaquinta, this trend is likely to continue. Ragin’ Al has never been knocked out, having survived to see the scorecards against the likes of Jorge Masvidal, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Dan Hooker and Donald Cerrone.
Unfortunately for Iaquinta, his skillset is not overly impressive in any other area. His early UFC success relied on his wrestling prowess but, like many before him, he seems to have fallen in love with his striking. His overall volume and accuracy are inferior to Green’s and should see him clearly losing each round to King.
Iaquinta has also not competed in the UFC’s Octagon for almost three years, whereas Green has been one of the division’s most active and reliable fighters, with the improvements to show for it.
King Green should simply be the better fighter on Saturday night, but his inability to finish his opponent will once again see his arm raised via the judges’ scorecards. Backing GREEN TO WIN BY DECISION at 5/6 makes plenty of appeal.
Dependable Dustin
As a last-minute addition to the card due to injury, DUSTIN JACOBY locks horns with John Allan in the preliminaries. The Hanyak looks to improve his undefeated streak to five as he continues his resurgence within the UFC.
Allan’s original matchup looked a favourable one, but Jacoby provides somewhat of a stylistic nightmare for him. Considering the Brazilian appears desperately in need of a win to keep his UFC career alive, many are perplexed as to why he opted to take this fight on such short notice. Jacoby is a clear step up in competition and seems destined for the top 15 sometime soon. Allan has already struggled with fighters no longer in the company.
As far as their skill sets are concerned, Jacoby is a much superior striker, and should win any exchanges at range with relative ease. Allan's best path to victory would be to commit to his grappling, but Jacoby's takedown defensive is solid, and the Brazilian struggles to keep his opponents grounded anyway. With these angles in mind, it is easy to see why Jacoby opened as such a strong favourite and continues to shorten.
There does however appear to be some value on backing JACOBY TO WIN BY DECISION at 5/2, as Allan has proven himself to be durable in the striking exchanges, only ever losing by submission or on the scorecards in his career. Jacoby did score an early knockout in his last bout, but has gone the distance in three of his last five fights and appears to lose a lot of his stopping power as the fight wears on.
Published at 1415 GMT on 04/11/21
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