Matt Temple-Marsh delivers his verdict on Thursday night's action from the NFL, with best bets for Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills.
NFL betting tips: Thursday Night Football
1pt Stefon Diggs 100+ receiving yards at 6/4 (Bet365)
1pt Stefon Diggs & Mike Evans to score a touchdown at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Josh Allen 1+ interception at evens (bet365)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
TV: Sky Sports Main Event
Spread: Bills -9.5 at 10/11
Total: Over 42.5 at 10/11
This season has been a roller coaster for the Buffalo Bills – from looking like the best team in the NFL to some embarrassing losses. Last week they were stunned by the New England Patriots - going into the game they were favoured by more than a touchdown, yet they were humbled in a 29-25 loss.
For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers they have shocked many, with Baker Mayfield leading the team to a .500 record. However, after a promising start to the season the Bucs have slumped. The Week 5 bye perhaps came at a bad time for Mayfield, since then he’s completed 58.2% of his throws, whilst throwing just one touchdown & two interceptions in losses to Detroit & Atlanta.
The team has gone from averaging 23.5 points per game to just 14. Baker Mayfield is currently struggling with a knee injury that sees him practicing in a limited capacity. I expect Mayfield to play, but at the time of writing, most lines are unavailable for the quarterback & his receivers.
The Bills defence has been ravaged by injuries. Matt Milano, Tre’Davious White & DaQuan Jones are all likely out for the season. Without those three against the Patriots, they allowed the Pats struggling offence to set season-highs in points (29), yards per play (6.6) and passing yards per attempt (8.9). But on a positive note, only the Jaguars have more takeaways this season – the Bills have produced 14 through seven games.
On the opposite side, the Bucs have an impressive 13 through six games. These defences have a knack for the ball – and both quarterbacks have been sloppy with the ball. Allen has thrown a pick in three straight games, whilst Baker has thrown an interception in four consecutive games. I’d back both to throw an interception in this contest, but only Allen’s line is out, which you can back at 1/1.
WRs Mike Evans & Stefon Diggs are having strong starts to the season. Diggs has racked up the fourth most receiving yards in the league, alongside the second most receptions & touchdowns – with five 100+ yard games. Evans, with a game played less than Diggs, has 30 catches, 468 yards & four touchdowns.
These secondaries have been soft – only six teams have allowed more passing yards per game than the Buccaneers this season (265/game), whilst the Bills rank 30th in defensive DVOA vs WR1s this season – the loss of White at cornerback has been huge for the Bills.
We can expect both to be heavily involved – back them to both score a touchdown at 9/2. And given how soft the Bucs secondary has been – they have conceded 100+ yard games to four WRs this season – I’d back Diggs to eclipse 100+ receiving yards at 6/4.
Buffalo have too much talent to continue to play as badly as they have over the last two weeks. Through Weeks 2-4 they won three straight by at least 28 or more points against each opponent.
Tampa will struggle to keep up – they rank as the 27th scoring offence in the league, compared to Buffalo’s 3rd ranked unit. Expect a bounce back game from Josh Allen against a soft pass defence.
Score prediction: Bills 34-17 Buccaneers
Preview posted at 1530 BST on 25/10/23
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