Ross Williams picks out his best bets for Monday night's NFL action.
NFL betting tips: Week 4
2pts Miami Dolphins (+2.5) v Buffalo Bills at 21/20 (Sky Bet)
2pts Anthony Richardson (Colts) to score a touchdown at 11/8 (General)
2pts Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) v Tennessee Titans at 10/11 (General)
2pts Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) v New York Giants at evens (Sky Bet)
Seahawks @ Giants
- Tuesday, 0115 BST
Nothing scares a New York Giant like a Monday night.
Although I tend not to lean on historic trends too often in this column, there are certain instances where it’s impossible to ignore.
The Giants have looked like a team feeling the weight of their city in the opening three weeks. They stumbled past the Arizona Cardinals in week two, but that was sandwiched between a 49ers defeat where they never really competed and a 40-0 embarrassment at the hands of the Cowboys – who have since fallen to the Cardinals themselves.
They haven’t look great mentally and they’re facing a spectre in the next few days.
The SEATTLE SEAHAWKS are the opponents, but the real challenge is the occasion itself. The Giants have lost each of their last seven Monday Night Football games and quarterback Daniel Jones simply folds under the bright primetime lights.
Since entering the league, Jones has won just one of 12 night-time games. It’s a brutal statistic and one that points to a problem rooted in something much deeper than simply X’s and O’s.
The Giants have to get over themselves before they even think about competing with Seattle and the Hawks will be feeling confident.
They’ve shown sloppiness, but they’ve scored 37 points in each of their last two outings, including at Ford Field against a Lions team that have proven with their wins over Green Bay and Kansas City that they are for real.
With Kenneth Walker back involved, Geno Smith playing some solid football at the quarterback position and the receiver pairing of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett healthy, Seattle look primed to move to 3-1 on Monday night.
With the handicap sitting below two points at the moment, they’re a strong even-money play on the spread and I’d be happy to go anywhere below that magic three-points.
Sunday previews
Dolphins @ Bills
- Sunday, 1800 BST
The game of week four leads off the 6pm slate and what a contest it could turn out to be.
An AFC East clash between the Bills and DOLPHINS was always going to attract attention, but it’s downright mouthwatering thanks to the start both teams have made. Buffalo have scored the second-most points in the NFL, averaging 30.3 per game, while Miami have run away with the lead following their 70-point demolition of the Broncos last weekend.
The Dolphins have averaged 43.3 points through three games and the confidence of the undefeated Florida outfit could not be higher. With that in mind, I would have a very hard time opposing them on Sunday.
As 2.5-point underdogs at the time of writing, in-form Miami are a very tempting proposition and I love their chances of at least keeping within a field goal of their divisional rivals.
They’re 3-0 outright so far and 3-0 against the spread, so covering has not been an issue and the winning mentality is evident at Hard Rock Stadium.
Buffalo have been solid against the pass, giving up just 142 yards per game, so they should be able to slow down Tua Tagavailoa to a certain extent on Sunday, but the Bills do have to deal with the absence of safety Jordan Poyer. It’s a major hole in the last line of the Buffalo defence and one that Miami are best-placed to exploit, thanks to the frightening pace of Tyreek Hill, perhaps the most explosive player in the entire National Football League.
The Bills defence are middling against the run and this also gives Miami cause for optimism. Through De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert and Chris Brooks on Sunday, the Dolphins were unplayable on the ground. All told, the trio racked up 351 yards and five touchdowns. Let that sink in.
Buffalo will be able to score on Miami, but I’m not seeing anything that suggests Miami won’t keep up and potentially even overcome the Bills. A close one seems guaranteed and as long as Tua and the Dolphins get their hands on the football in the fourth quarter, I haven’t had this level of confidence in a betting underdog in quite some time.
Rams @ Colts
- Sunday, 1800 BST
Following a week on the sidelines in the concussion protocol, rookie quarterback ANTHONY RICHARDSON returns for the Colts this weekend and he’ll be overjoyed with the situation.
Gardner Minshew took over the reins in week two and expertly guided Indianapolis to the win over Houston, before the Colts' defensive and special teams units pulled off the upset in Baltimore a week ago.
Tipped by many to be the league’s worst outfit before a ball was thrown, Indianapolis are sitting pretty at the top of the AFC South division with a 2-1 record and, against the Rams this Sunday, Richardson re-enters the fray, fresh and raring to go.
The Colts have every chance to continue their run of form against Los Angeles but, with a slender handicap on offer and value limited, I’d prefer to wager that Richardson finds the end-zone.
Before being forced off the field in week two, the rookie was dominating the Texans. The athletic quarterback has already shown that he can throw the ball, but he’s sensational when on the move.
Richardson left the field with two touchdowns already to his name in the first half and, had he remained, I suspect he’d have added at least another.
The Rams are decent enough against the run, shipping just over 103 yards per game so far, but they’ve conceded four touchdowns to backs, including (crucially) one to 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy.
Richardson is an entirely more potent weapon than Purdy on the ground and after a strong showing from Zack Moss in the Colts’ backfield last week, the Rams can’t afford to put all their attention on the signal-caller.
No quarterback in the modern era has rushed for a touchdown in each of their first three NFL starts, but Anthony Richardson is no ordinary quarterback.
In 12 college starts last year, he ran in nine touchdowns for the Florida Gators and if there were any concerns whether he could be as prolific in the professional leagues, just ask the Texans.
Bengals @ Titans
- Sunday, 1800 BST
The BENGALS have started slow, but they were a little more like it on Monday night.
After some uncertainty, Joe Burrow gritted his teeth and started at quarterback, leading his side to a much-needed victory. It still wasn’t perfect and far from the Cincinnati we’ve seen in the past couple of seasons, but there were positive signs.
Ja’Marr Chase put up numbers more befitting of his status and talent, with 141 yards through the air, and that’s a really good indication as we head into a game where Cincinnati are favoured by just 2.5 points.
Tennessee have struggled against the pass for a good while and it’s tough to see where any sudden improvement could come from. They’re giving up over 275 passing yards per game so far this season and, even battling his calf injury, Burrow put up 259 on Monday against the Rams.
This could easily be a 300-yard game for the former LSU quarterback against a poor secondary and that provides plenty of optimism that the Bengals can pull away from the Titans in Nashville.
Tennessee hung tough with the Raiders and Chargers in the opening two weeks but fell away completely in a beat-down by Cleveland last Sunday.
They couldn’t handle the onslaught from Deshaun Watson through the air and it provides a near perfect blueprint for how the Bengals should approach this game.
Due to Cincy’s inconsistency, a wider handicap would cause me to shy away from this match-up, but 2.5 points is far slimmer than it should be in real terms.
With the Bengals no strangers to fourth-quarter wins and Burrow one of the most clutch quarterbacks in the league, anything below three points is more than backable this weekend. The Bengals are a better team. No need to overthink this one.
Posted at 1435 BST on 30/09/23
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