Ross Williams looks to begin the new year as he ended the last one – in profit – with his best bets for Sunday's Week 17 NFL action.
NFL betting tips: Week 17
2pts Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) to beat the New Orleans Saints at 10/11 (General)
2pts Brian Robinson to score a touchdown & Washington Commanders to beat the Cleveland Browns at 21/10 (bet365)
2pts San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) to beat the Las Vegas Raiders at 10/11 (General)
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) to beat New England Patriots
We don’t know for certain who will be quarterbacking the Eagles on Sunday, but whether it’s Gardner Minshew or a returning Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia should have far too much for the Saints as they march on towards the playoffs.
Philly suffered a 40-34 defeat to the Cowboys over Christmas, but there were still plenty of positives from Nick Sirianni’s team as Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown dominated a strong Dallas defence.
Minshew threw two costly interceptions in the contest, but with one eye on his playing situation in 2023, he’s likely to take much more care of the football against a Saints team that won’t pile on as many points as the Cowboys.
Success in the run game will be the order of the day for the Eagles. It’s their bread and butter and a return to the tactics that have led to Miles Sanders averaging five yards per carry makes a lot of sense against a New Orleans team that ranks in the NFL’s bottom 10 for rushing yards conceded.
The Saints are susceptible to big slashes of rushing yardage and few teams have more exponents. If Hurts is healthy, he’s a running threat all on his own, but Sanders and Boston Scott are equally capable of ripping off major plays against defences not built to cope against the ground game.
The handicap in this one falls just short of a converted touchdown and I think that represents value. The Eagles have been excellent on home-field this season – covering the spread all but once as favourites – and with Dallas and the Vikings looming on their tail, Philadelphia will view this game against the 6-9 Saints as a perfect opportunity to clinch the all-important #1 seed in the NFC.
Philly need to win just one of their two remaining games to secure the bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs and they’d love the opportunity to rest up and not risk unnecessary injuries in week 18 against the Giants.
Working out the intentions of teams this late in the regular season is generally tricky, but with this scenario in place and Jalen Hurts ‘pushing’ to play in this game, it’s clear that the Eagles are looking to win handsomely on Sunday.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Robinson TD and Washington to win
The Browns’ campaign has screeched to a halt in recent weeks. Jacoby Brissett had led Cleveland to a position where the franchise had an outside chance of a postseason berth, but the planned midseason switch to Deshaun Watson at quarterback has faltered.
Whether it’s rust or not, Watson’s first outings in Cleveland colours have not been pretty, and the team now has to focus on 2023.
The Commanders have also been through a sticky patch, but they’re clinging onto the final AFC playoff spot by the skin of their teeth and still have a real opportunity to extend their season. They probably have to win their two remaining games, but it’s doable.
In Week 18, Washington face a Dallas side likely to be resting starters ahead of the playoffs. But first, they have to deal with a deflated Cleveland outfit.
Carson Wentz is back in at quarterback for the Commanders and his performance will dominate the pre-game headlines but, in truth, he should only be a facilitator on Sunday.
Washington have been finding joy on the ground of late, averaging 123.7 yards per game over the course of the season, and they match up well against a Browns defence that is one of the worst in the league at defending rushing attacks. Cleveland have averaged a loss of 162 rushing yards over the past three weeks and that can’t stand.
A repeat performance from this rapidly regressing team will put Washington in prime position to pick up the valuable win and rookie running back Brian Robinson Jr may be the key.
After missing three straight practises, we’re unlikely to see much of Antonio Gibson this weekend, so Robinson should take the reins in the back-field and rack up the carries as the lead back.
Against a tired Cleveland defence, I can see him repeating his season-best performance, when he took 26 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown in a fantastic win over the Eagles.
San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 21:05 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: San Francisco (-9.5) to beat Las Vegas Raiders
If the Raiders’ loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Christmas period didn’t effectively end their season, the loss of defensive stars Chandler Jones and Denzel Perryman to the injury reserve list almost certainly did.
Everyone knows it, including it seems head coach Josh McDaniels, who made the decision this week to bench quarterback Derek Carr and likely end his Raiders career.
This leaves backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham and a depleted Raiders outfit in quite a position this weekend as they welcome one of the league’s hottest teams.
The 49ers are on fire at present and look good value for a Super Bowl run as things stand. Leading Defensive Player of the Year candidate Nick Bosa is playing like a man possessed and Brock Purdy – the man who was tasked with replacing the injured Jimmy Garoppolo midseason – has taken to the task like a duck to water.
I’d usually steer clear of handicaps as hefty as 9.5 points, but the Niners have been scoring at will of late and their NFL-leading defence is more than capable of shutting out a Raiders team that is already begging for the new year and an attention-shift to the 2023 season.
San Francisco have now won their last eight games, covered six handicaps in doing so, and racked up an average winning deficit of 16.63 points.
The Niners don’t just win, they dominate, and I fully expect an ill-prepared and talent-depleted Las Vegas team to be the latest victims in a long line of impressive San Francisco victories.
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Posted at 1905 GMT on 30/12/22
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