Ross Williams picks out two best bets for the Christmas Day action in the NFL, with prices backed at 3/1 and 9/4.
NFL betting tips: Week 16 Christmas Day
2pts Tyreek Hill 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown at 3/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt Denver Broncos (-1.5) to beat the Los Angeles Rams and Under 36.5 Total Match Points at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Tyreek Hill 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown
“I’ll never play like that again, bad performance from myself last night, I’ll be better.”
They were the thoughts of seven-time Pro Bowler Tyreek Hill following the Dolphins’ narrow 32-29 defeat to the Buffalo Bills last week and I can’t help but think that tweet paves the way for a massive performance on Christmas Day.
In reality, Tyreek was being too hard on himself. He spent half the night in Buffalo avoiding snowballs from the crowd and STILL managed to pick up 69 yards and a touchdown in the frozen conditions.
Such are Tyreek’s high standards, that wasn’t good enough for him, but it was still a pretty solid return.
The Dolphins are back in the warmer weather this weekend, hosting the Green Bay Packers, and although I do like Miami’s chances of winning the game, there’s more value in backing Hill – the man known as Cheetah – to find the endzone and rack up his personal yardage. Only Justin Jefferson has more yards this season, with Hill averaging a touch over 109 per game.
He’s already promised a big performance from himself and although Green Bay’s defence doesn’t generally give away too many yards to receivers, they’ve conceded 19 receiving touchdowns this year and the way they play suits Hill’s game.
Quarterbacks playing the Packers this season have completed almost 66% of their passes – which is the 12th-highest mark in the league. This means that although Green Bay don’t give up too much down the field, they’re unable to stop the shorter pass. This is the bread and butter of Tyreek Hill’s game, as one of the NFL’s best exponents of catching balls near the line of scrimmage and using his electric speed to turn throws into big plays with his elusiveness and sheer pace.
Tyreek Hill spells trouble for the Packers on Christmas Day and at 3/1 to go for 100 yards and a touchdown, he could provide a late present for us in the 6pm window.
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Rams
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 21:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Broncos (-1.5) to beat the Rams and Under 36.5 Total Match Points
Denver came through for me with a near-identical 6/4 selection last weekend and I’m hoping for more of the same as they travel to the Rams on Christmas night.
Needless to say, by backing an ‘under’ of just 36.5 points, I’m not exactly expecting a classic befitting the holiday season between these two teams. Both the Rams and Broncos have been incredibly disappointing this season and I don’t anticipate much will change on Sunday.
Points have been at a premium for the NFL’s two lowest-scoring offences, with the pair averaging a combined 32 points between them per game this season. That’s a bleak number at this stage of the year and it certainly makes the ‘under’ enticing.
Neither team is playing for much at this stage and neither will be throwing much at the opposition. Although the neutral will hope I’m wrong, I really can’t see beyond a low-scoring affair between Baker Mayfield and a Russell Wilson just returning to the starting line-up.
As for the result, it’s a tough one but as I did last week against Arizona, I’ll edge for Denver and their superior defence. The point-scoring of these teams is extremely similar, but the Broncos have conceded 4.8 points per game fewer than the Rams this season and that should just give them the jump over a struggling team that has failed on all counts to capitalise on their Super Bowl victory in February.
Give me a low-scoring Denver win at a cool 9/4 to round off the festive period in style.
Odds correct as of 1630 GMT (23/12/22)
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