Ross Williams picks out his best bets for Week 14 of the NFL season, with four games in focus across Sunday and Monday.
NFL betting tips: Week 14
2pts Detroit Lions (-3.5) to beat the Chicago Bears at evens (General)
1pt Ceedee Lamb (Cowboys) 70+ receiving yards & 1+ Touchdowns at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Raheem Mostert 1+ Anytime Touchdown & Miami Dolphins to win at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
2pts Jordan Love (Packers) Over 223.5 passing yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
- Monday December 11, 0120 GMT
Having reached the Super Bowl back in February, the Eagles have been among the favourites for the title all year long. But, their Achilles heel has now been laid bare for all to see and any team worth their salt will be looking to exploit it.
The Eagles have given up 313 receptions, 3,341 receiving yards, 278 receiving yards per game and 27 receiving touchdowns.
In each of those stats, Philadelphia rank in the bottom-three in the NFL. Despite a talented pass-rush unit and familiar names in the secondary, the Eagles simply cannot stop the pass and cannot stop receivers building huge stat-lines against them.
Enter, Ceedee Lamb.
The star Dallas receiver is having his finest season to date, averaging 98.5 yards per game, and his connection with Dak Prescott is a major reason why we certainly can’t yet rule the Cowboys out of Super Bowl contention.
Lamb’s been on fire in recent weeks – scoring touchdowns in each of his last four games - and against a team so inefficient against the pass, he looks set for a big day under the primetime lights.
He was dominant against Seattle last time out – picking up 116 yards and a score – so the prospects of 70+ receiving yards and a touchdown look strong in this key divisional battle.
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
- Tuesday December 12, 0115 GMT
The Dolphins are heavy favourites on Monday night and the handicap is a little too big to comfortably back, but there’s value in doubling up a Miami win, along with a touchdown for one of their star men.
Raheem Mostert is currently listed as questionable to play on Monday having sat out Thursday’s session and having limited participation in Miami’s Friday training, but reports suggest that the break in Mostert’s schedule is associated with resting the running back up, rather than anything to do with a set-back to his recent knee injury.
Of course, if he is listed among the inactives 90 minutes before kick-off, we can dismiss this selection – your bet will void - and we can focus on the other Monday night game. But, he is expected to suit up and the slight doubt has actually provided us with some added juice in this selection.
At the time of writing, we can pick up a healthy price of 11/8 for Mostert to score and Miami to win.
The ‘Miami to win’ element writes itself. The Dolphins are 13-point favourites having won nine of their 12 games this season. The only teams to have beaten Miami are Buffalo in probably their performance of the season, the Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs.
With respect to a Titans team that have lost four of their last five and only beaten the hapless, last-placed Carolina Panthers since October, they are not of that sort of ilk and can’t be expected to keep up with Miami’s explosive offence.
As for Mostert, the case is as simple as it gets. He’s played in 12 games this season and scored 16 touchdowns. He’s only failed to score in one of Miami’s nine victories.
If he does indeed play on Monday, 11/8 is supreme value.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
- Tuesday December 12, 0115 GMT
The Green Bay Packers have played the long game with Jordan Love, but it may have paid off.
The young quarterback sat behind Aaron Rodgers for some time in the cold of Wisconsin – much like Rodgers did himself with Brett Favre – but he now has the starting job all to himself and he’s been hitting his stride in the latter half of his first, proper season as an NFL starter.
Love’s last four games have been eye-catching, with the Packers keen to let him flex his arm talent. He was shaky in the first of those four, struggling against a primed Pittsburgh defence, but he still managed to put up 289 yards through the air, despite only completing 21 of his 40 passes.
Since then, he’s been excellent, consistently completing over 67% of his passes and throwing eight touchdowns without tossing an interception. In that time, he also put up his first 300-yard performance against the Chargers.
He’s favoured to lead his team to a fourth-straight win on Monday night and I suspect Green Bay will stick to what has been working for them. The Giants’ defence ranks in the bottom-half of the league against the pass and averages around 228 yards per game.
Love – who has averaged 286 yards per game in the last four weeks – easily surpassed the defensive averages of both Kansas City and Detroit over the past fortnight and that puts him in a great position from a betting perspective of surpassing his yardage total this week.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
- Sunday December 10, 1800 GMT
Just three weeks ago, the Lions pulled off a late comeback against Chicago and took the win by five points. It wasn’t the most convincing win of Detroit’s excellent 2023 season, but it was a win all the same and it provides a strong basis for a repeat this Sunday.
Dan Campbell’s Lions provided a winner for us last weekend, covering the spread against the Saints, and I’m going back to the well with a handicap of just 3.5 points against them as they head to Soldier Field.
When a 9-3 team faces a side sitting on a 4-8 record, the numbers are as you’d expect. The Lions rank higher than their divisional rivals in many of the key areas. They score 7.1 more points per game on average and concede 0.9 points fewer, so the case for the visitors is obvious, but the piece of the puzzle that makes this such an interesting bet to me is Chicago’s long-term ambition.
As things stand, with five games left to play, the Bears hold possession of two top-five picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, if they fail to win their remaining games and the likes of Arizona, New England and Washington pick up some results, there’s a real possibility that the Bears will have each of the top two selections.
For a franchise that clearly doesn’t have the talent on its roster to compete for a title, two high-value picks of that magnitude are akin to gold-dust and they could set the Bears up for years to come, with a number of quality quarterbacks and premier college athletes set to enter the league next Spring.
In other words, although of course no one associated with the franchise would ever say so, the Bears may benefit more long-term from a defeat than a victory on Sunday.
Detroit will go very close to clinching the NFC North title with a win and I do suspect the favourites won’t face all that much resistance.
Posted at 1800 GMT on 09/12/23
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