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NFL Week 14 betting tips: Best bets, predictions, picks and previews

By Ross Williams
NFL
Sun December 11, 2022 · 3y ago

Ross Williams is +20.56pts profit this season - an ROI of 20% - and he picks out his best bets for the Week 14 action.

NFL betting tips: Week 14

2pts Minnesota Vikings to beat the Detroit Lions at 11/10 (General)

2pts Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) to beat the Baltimore Ravens at 9/10 (SBK)

2pts Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) to beat the San Francisco 49ers at 22/25 (Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh have covered in three of their last four games and Sunday represents an opportunity to extend what has been a much-improved run of form for the Steelers.

I tipped them up – giving 1.5 points – against the Falcons last week and we’re heading back to the well, despite this weekend’s match-up appearing naturally tougher against a divisional opponent.

The caveat, of course, is Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens’ quarterback is out with a knee injury and extremely unlikely to make it onto the field on Sunday, providing a real opportunity for Pittsburgh’s excellent defensive front to get on top of a makeshift Baltimore offence.

Tyler Huntley is no mug and he’s won games in the NFL, but there’s a drop-off in ability and Baltimore have been finding point-scoring tricky at times this season, regardless of Jackson’s injury status.

The Ravens have won two of their last three, but have put up a combined 23 points in the process.

Pittsburgh’s offence – led by an ever-improving Kenny Pickett – has been finding its mojo of late and will see this game as a real chance to prove that Mike Tomlin’s side are still relevant.

Despite a poor start to the season, a winning record isn’t out of the realms of possibility and a huge AFC North win on home soil will go a long way to cementing their intentions.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

If you crunch the numbers hard enough, you can begin to see a case for why Detroit are favoured against the 10-2 Vikings this week but, in your heart of hearts, it’s still very difficult to look past the very, very obvious value that may be on offer here.

The Lions are 5-2 against the spread in home games this season, which explains much of the bookmakers’ confidence, but they’ve covered once all season long when giving points to the opposition and that just so happened to be last week against a terrible Jaguars team.

There’s no doubt that Detroit are in the best shape they’ve been in all year, but am I really supposed to believe that the Lions are almost three points better than a team that has only lost twice outright all season?

There seems to be a perception that the Vikings are in a slump, but they could have fooled me.

Minnesota have won their last two games outright and covered the spread, so recent form isn’t a concern.

The injury table is beginning to get a little crowded, but their offensive unit is practically at peak health heading into week 14 and the Vikes have scored 60 points across the last fortnight.

The Vikings remain a Super Bowl contender as we approach this match-up. Those two aforementioned losses weren’t close, but it was the NFC East duo of the Eagles and Cowboys that inflicted them. There was no shame in either of those defeats and no team aside has been able to topple Kirk Cousins and co.

Many will stay away from this match-up, but only as they feel it’s a trap. The odds make no tangible sense when you consider the talent of both rosters and, buried in his favoured 6pm window, I’m going to back Cousins over Jared Goff every day of the week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers

In the wider context of his career, it’s pretty rare for Tom Brady to enter an NFL stadium as an underdog.

To date, he’s played 372 games as a professional and he’s only been given points on the spread in 61 of those – around 16% of his career.

He’s unfamiliar with being underestimated and, if we’ve learnt one thing during those 61 encounters, it’s that Tom Brady does not appreciate being underestimated.

Remarkably, Brady has covered the handicap in 67% of his games as an underdog and he’ll be eager to ramp that figure up even further this week as he heads back to California to take on the 49ers – a team he famously has a childhood affinity for.

What’s more, he’s coming off a trademark fourth-quarter comeback win over the Saints – the record-breaking 44th of his career – and the clash with the Niners this week sees him facing off against Brock Purdy, a rookie quarterback making his first career start in the absence of the injured Jimmy Garoppolo.

Not too much is known of Purdy or what his potential really is in an NFL uniform, but here’s a contextual nugget.

Purdy was born on December 27th 1999. Five days later, Tom Brady played the final game of his college career with the Michigan Wolverines. Four months later, the New England Patriots selected him with the 199th pick of the 2000 NFL Draft and the rest…Well, you know the rest.

The 49ers are a better team on paper, that’s for sure, but with all things considered and a spread stretching beyond a field goal in the offering.

Give me Tom Brady and the points. Always.

Odds correct as of 1845 GMT (09/12/22)

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