Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best stats bets to back for Week 7 of the NFL season.
NFL betting tips: Week 7
1.5pts David Njoku over 50 receiving yards at 15/8 (bet365)
2.5pts Evan Engram over 30.5 receiving yards at 10/11 (bet365)
1pt Josh Jacobs over 81.5 rushing yards & Dameon Pierce over 64.5 rushing yards at 100/30 (bet365)
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Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
- When: Sunday 1800 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bet: David Njoku over 50 receiving yards
Since DAVID NJOKU's one-target one-catch game in Week One, he has seen a 20% target share – and only Amari Cooper has more catches for the Browns. On the year the tight end is averaging 57 yards a game, and over his last four games he’s averaged a huge 78 yards a game.
Only tight ends Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Dallas Goedert have more receiving yards than Njoku, and over the last three weeks he has ripped off long receptions of 33, 38 and 25 yards – highlighting his big-play ability.
The Baltimore Ravens are middle-of-the-pack against tight ends, but looking at their schedule (Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, Bills, Bengals & Giants), the tight end talent they’ve faced is hard to find. Trust in Jacoby Brissett’s relationship with Njoku and back him to break 50 yards once more at a generous price of approaching 2/1, with the spread set around the 37-point mark elsewhere.
New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday 1800 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bets: Evan Engram over 30.5 receiving yards
EVAN ENGRAM is building his way into this Jaguars offence. Over the last two weeks the tight end has caught 11 of 16 targets, for 109 yards.
He’s seen his target share jump from 12% in weeks 1-4 to 25% in weeks 5 and 6, as he led the team in targets last Sunday. Engram now faces the Giants in a 'revenge game' – and it’s one of the best matchups for the position.
They have given up the seventh most yards to tight ends on the year – conceding an average of 59 yards a game to the position. Back Engram to better what looks a low line.
Houston Texans @ Las Vegas Raiders
- When: Sunday 2105 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bet: Josh Jacobs over 81.5 rushing yards & Dameon Pierce over 64.5 rushing yards
These are two of the most in-form running backs in the NFL. DAMEON PIERCE is shaping up to be a good bet for offensive rookie of the year – and it’s hard to work out why his rushing line is only 64.5.
On the year he’s produced 412 rushing yards (82 yards/game), and over his last three games the Texans RB has posted 310 yards (103 yards/game). The Raiders are allowing 81 rushing yards a game to RBs – and the Texans will likely lean into their star RB, as arguably their most dynamic player on offence.
Speaking of bad rushing defences, no team in the league is allowing more yards to RBs than the Texans – with a huge 133 rushing yards per game to the position. The Josh Jacobs' resurgence has a joy to watch – he’s back at his very best – and he can pass the 81.5-yard line.
Jacobs' last two games have been absurd: 49 rushes, 298 rushing yards, three touchdowns. And you can expect more on Sunday. Take advantage of favourable matchups and back the overs for these electric running backs.
Odds correct at 1415 BST on 21/10/22
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