Ross Williams is targeting Jonathan Taylor in one of Sunday's NFL games, along with a confident bet on the New England Patriots.
NFL betting tips: Week 15
2pts New England Patriots to beat the Buffalo Bills – EVS (General)
2pts Indianapolis Colts (+13.5) to beat the Seattle Seahawks – 10/11 (General)
1pt Jonathan Taylor (Colts) to score a touchdown – 13/10 (Bet365)
New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills
- Sunday 1800 GMT
We’ve officially entered clinching season and Sunday represents an opportunity for the New England Patriots to claim back the AFC East divisional crown.
The Buffalo Bills have been champions in the East for the past five seasons and, fittingly, they are New England’s opponents in Massachusetts.
Josh Allen’s Bills are favoured by the bookmakers, but the signs point to the hosts. New England picked up the victory in the first meeting between these two sides this season and they’ve won every game since. In fact, the Patriots haven’t tasted defeat since the 21st of September.
Buffalo, on the other hand, have stumbled at times, suffering uncharacteristic defeats to the Dolphins and the Falcons.
Seasoned NFL viewers may be quick to point out that late-season NFL and divisional match-ups, when the real stakes come into play, are a different beast and the inexperience of Drake Maye and his Patriots may leave them unstuck against the battle-tested Bills.
But recent history is actually in New England’s favour. While Buffalo have looked flimsy in divisional games, failing to cover the spread in their last three, the Patriots have been sublime against their closest rivals. Mike Vrabel’s team are 3-0 against divisional opponents (and their handicaps) this season and their streak is up to five, including a pair of strong victories last year.
Although Buffalo remain a championship contender, there’s no doubt that they’ve lacked their usual shine this season. Themselves and Kansas City have ruled the roost in the AFC for the better part of a half-decade, but this season has felt like the changing of the guard and the Patriots have led the charge.
It remains to be seen whether New England can convert their regular season success into post-season glory, as Brady and Belichick did so often in those red, silver and blue colours, but I fancy them to leave Buffalo with a bloody nose this weekend before we truly start to turn our attention to the business end of the campaign.
Seattle Seahawks v Indianapolis Colts
- Sunday 2125 GMT
It’s impossible to look at this week 15 slate without your eye being immediately drawn to Seattle’s clash with Indianapolis on Sunday evening.
Whatever happens, we’re going to witness some history, if the Colts name the starting quarterback that literally everyone in the football world wants to see.
If you’d have told me a week ago that there was a strong chance that Philip Rivers would be leading Indianapolis into Seattle, I simply wouldn’t have believed you, but here we are.
After the devastating Achilles injury to Daniel Jones last weekend, the Colts needed to act quickly to stop their season heading into complete free-fall. Everyone anticipated a roster move on Monday and a fresh passer coming into the fold, but the idea of Rivers returning to don the horseshoe never even entered the equation.
It’s been five years since #17 hung up his cleats and helmet, following a playoff elimination in Buffalo. He served the Colts well in – what we all believed to be - his final season, but he was 39 years old and his physical limitations counter-balanced his obvious leadership abilities and big-game experience.
When Rivers left that stadium – and the NFL – it felt like the right time for one of the game’s modern greats to head off into the next chapter of his life, which just so happened to be coaching High School football.
But half a decade later, inexplicably, he’s back at 44 years old.
With all this in mind, you’d surely expect the logical next step for punters to be backing the Seahawks this weekend. I thought that too, expecting Seattle to be around 8-to-9 point favourites.
However, the spread at the time of writing is 13.5 points – the largest of what is an unusually lopsided weekend – and I can’t help but feel that number is a little rich. In fact, it’s a number large enough to sway me in the opposite direction.
The Colts have hit a speed bump or two in recent weeks, but there’s no evidence that suggests they’re a bad team all of a sudden. They’re still 8-5, their playoff hopes are still existent and – even after a poor month by their standards – they’re still the #6-scoring offence in the NFL.
Of course, the loss of Jones is a blow, but could the arrival of Rivers actually turn a situation into a net-positive over the next four weeks?
The ground-dominance of Jonathan Taylor was the primary component of Indianapolis’ early-season success. He looked every inch the best running back in the league and he looked unstoppable when granted the opportunities. In recent weeks, the responsibility of leading the team around the field has been handed much more frequently to the quarterback, and Taylor has seen his stats diminish somewhat, but that won’t be happening this week.
Rivers knows Shane Steichen’s offence like the back of his hand. Ultimately, the history between the future Hall of Famer and the current Colts head coach is the reason we’re heading into this incredible scenario where a grandfather is set to start an NFL game.
There isn’t a section of the playbook that Rivers isn’t familiar with, but the reality is both quarterback and head coach know there are elements of the plan that he simply doesn’t have the physical tools to execute.
The deep ball is largely out, along with plays that rely on the passer hanging around in the pocket, leaving himself in harm’s way.
So, we’re almost certainly going to see a stripped-back version of the Colts offensive plan on Sunday and that is going to prioritise the things that Philip Rivers CAN do in his current state.
The Chargers legend was famed for his quick release and early footage of practise this week suggests that, even at 44, the fundamentals of his iconic throw are still there. So, we can expect plenty of short, sharp passes to receivers just beyond the line of scrimmage. We can also expect, understandably, a whole lot of Jonathan Taylor and the ground game.
This is going to achieve two things.
One, Taylor will receive the opportunities he craves and - even against a defence as strong as Seattle’s – his ability to turn those chances into yardage and touchdowns exceeds the generous prices on offer.
And two, with a heavy emphasis on the ground game and high-percentage, low-risk passes, the Colts will not be stopping the clock very often.
Seattle may well win the game on Sunday, but Indianapolis will be setting up to limit the amount of actual time the Seahawks have to rack up their points and – with 13.5 points in their back pocket – I fancy the Colts to beat the spread battle, even if they ultimately lose the war.
Posted at 17:15 GMT on 13/12/25
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