Ross Williams has been among the winners lately and he has selections for each of the four NFL Divisional Round games this weekend.
NFL betting tips: Divisional Round
Saturday
2pts Over 46 Total Match Points in Bills @ Broncos 10/11 (General)
2pts Seattle Seahawks (-7) to beat San Francisco 49ers at 10/11 (General)
1pt double over 46 points and Seahawks -7 at 13/5 (General)
Sunday
2pts New England Patriots (-3) to beat Houston Texans at 10/11 (General)
2pts Los Angeles Rams (-4) to beat Chicago Bears at 10/11 (General)
1pt double Pats -3 and Rams -4 on the spreads at 13/5 (General)
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
- Saturday, 21:30
The opening game of this year’s Divisional Round is a very tough one to call, and the handicap of just 1.5 points reflects that.
Denver have been marginally favoured by the bookmakers and I can understand it. Mathematically, they’re a better team due to their extra two regular season wins and subsequent playoff seeding. Plus, they command homefield advantage on Saturday at a venue that has seen them lose just one game this season.
There’s lots to like, but the same was said about the Jaguars last week and they were put to the sword by Buffalo. With the niggling injuries he’s currently carrying – and the supporting cast of talent that will be watching this game from the sidelines – there is a case to discount Josh Allen’s chances this weekend, but I won’t be making it.
Allen’s the best quarterback remaining and his sheer presence in this game makes betting the spread feel like a fool’s errand.
Of course, in order for Allen to work his magic, he’ll need good field position. Generally speaking, that comes at a real premium when facing the Broncos due to their top-five defence, but the artillery Buffalo have in the backfield could be the ideal antidote.
Denver have allowed teams fewer than 100 rushing yards on 10 occasions this season. The Broncos lost just one of those match-ups and their aggregate score was 196-148.
In the seven games in which Denver allowed more than 100 rushing yards, they suffered two defeats, the otherwise hapless Commanders took them to overtime and the aggregate score was 205-163.
So what can we take from this data?
Based on what we’ve seen this season, teams that can rush for 100+ yards against Denver have a higher likelihood of winning (or at least keeping the game close) but it’s also notable that when teams do have this rushing success, the Broncos respond with their own offence.
There was an average of 52.5 points scored in these seven games, compared to just 34.4 in the other 10 matchups.
That’s a pretty stark difference and, seeing as Buffalo are the best rushing team in the NFL and they cleared 100+ yards in 15 of their 17 regular season games this year, it brings the ‘over’ very much into play.
Denver won’t want a shootout at Mile High, but the evidence suggests they won’t be able to stop one.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
- Sunday, 01:30
This all-NFC West match-up could be a case of rinse and repeat.
The divisional rivals met in week 18 and Seattle just ground the Niners into the dirt. It wasn’t the flashiest performance – indeed, the Seahawks only scored 13 points – but they held the 49ers to a sole field goal and very little besides.
Even with Brock Purdy completing 70% of his passes, San Francisco managed just 173 yards of offence in the entire game. Seattle, on the other hand, acquired 361, while hardly breaking out of first gear.
With superstars on both sides of the ball – George Kittle and Fred Warner – out for the visitors, it’s tough to make a really solid case for the 49ers against a team that is fresh off the bye and primed to pick up where they left off in front of (possibly) the league’s most vociferous home support.
Seven points is a little rich in a divisional game and, if truth be told, it’s a number I’d usually avoid.
However, Seattle are 12-5 against the spread this season and favourites for the Vince Lombardi trophy for a reason.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
- Sunday, 20:00
The second AFC matchup of the weekend is another tight one, but I’m comfortable giving the hometown Patriots the slight edge.
Houston have been the best defensive team in the NFL this season and that has its obvious merits, but the more rounded team resides in New England. While the Texans have been dominant on one side of the ball, their offence has been middling, averaging 327 yards per game and 23.8 points. Steady numbers, but far from spectacular.
New England, however, have consistently been a top-10 side on both sides of the football, leading to their mightily impressive 15-3 record this season.
They have a strong winning habit having suffered defeat just once since week four, and quarterback Drake Maye has put together an MVP-calibre season at a Gillette Stadium that has long been a graveyard for opposition teams in the playoffs.
There’s also a strong historical angle in this game, which makes for grim reading if you’re of a Houston-oriented persuasion.
The Texans have reached the Divisional Round six times in their history, but they have never taken the next step. On six occasions, Houston have tried and failed to reach the AFC Championship game. In fact, they are the only team in the entire conference to have never entered the NFL’s ‘semi-final’ stage.
On the other hand, the Patriots have played in no fewer than 15 AFC title games, a record only mastered by the Pittsburgh Steelers, due to their dominance in the 1970s.
History is in the Pats’ favour, as is the location of the game, the quarterback calibre and the general well-roundedness of the teams.
The Texans won’t hand this to New England easily, but I’m comfortable with a slender three-point spread. The Patriots don’t mind winning ugly, and this looks tailor-made for that exact eventuality.
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
- Sunday, 23:30
Bears supporters will point to the cold as a primary factor on Sunday evening. With extreme temperatures expected, it’s understandable to lean towards the team from Illinois, over the visitors from sunny California.
However, it’s generally the quarterback who is most affected by the weather conditions and Los Angeles have an ace in the pack in that regard. Although his home games in Detroit were housed in a dome, Matt Stafford is no stranger to frozen climes, having spent the majority of his career facing off against the Bears and Green Bay Packers in the NFC North.
With the likely MVP in situ, I’m willing to overlook the weather and focus on what we’ve seen and what we know about these two teams.
The Rams have a higher-ranked offence (1st in the NFL, no less), a stingier defence, stronger form coming into the postseason and a better record against the spread.
Essentially, it’s a tall order for Chicago. They can play very good football and there’s an argument that we are yet to see what Caleb Williams is truly capable of, but the idea of him out-duelling Matt Stafford in a contest like this one is something that will have to be seen before it is believed.
I like the Rams by a touchdown, and the current spread allows a level of comfort. Take LA to progress.
Posted at 16:15 GMT on 17/10/26
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Posted at 15:20 GMT on 17/01/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.