After a winning Week 5, our NFL Week 6 coverage begins with Matt Temple-Marsh on what looks a daunting Thursday Night Football assignment for the Broncos.
NFL betting tips: Broncos @ Chiefs
2pts Kansas City Chiefs to score over 34.5 points at 23/10 (bet365)
1.5pts Isiah Pacheco over 100+ rushing yards at 39/10 (bet365)
1pt Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 & over 51.5 total match points at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Isiah Pacheco to score a brace at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Kick-off time: Friday, 0115 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Chiefs -10.5 @ 5/6
- Total: Over 47.5 @ 5/6
The Denver Broncos are one of the worst teams in the NFL, with a historically bad defence. According to DVOA statistics (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), Denver officially has the worst defence in history through the first five games of the season, with a huge 181 points conceded (36.2 per game).
Even looking past the 70-point Dolphin performance, two weeks ago they gave up a 28-point lead to the Bears, and last Sunday they conceded 31 points to the Jets – both teams are far from top 10 offences in the NFL.
The Broncos are yet to cover this season (0-4-1), and the over has hit in four of their games. Now they travel to Kansas to face reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, with the handicap set at 10.5 points. The Chiefs have won the last 15 (yes, 15!) meetings against the Broncos, and we can expect that to continue.
Sure, there may be worry for the Chiefs at WR & injury concern for Travis Kelce, but here’s a look at how the Broncos defence ranks:
- 36.2 PPG (32nd)
- 450.6 Total YPG (32nd)
- 187.6 Rushing YPG (32nd)
- 5.9 Rushing yards per carry (32nd)
- 263 Passing YPG (29th)
- 124.6 QBR (32nd)
- 12 Sacks (21st)
And they’re having to face Mahomes – who may be the greatest quarterback the NFL has ever seen. His supporting cast may be the worst he’s had in his career, but don’t be shocked to see the Chiefs rack up 35+ points, which you can back at 23/10.
Specifically, we’ve seen running backs put up monster games against the Broncos. Here’s a look at the last four weeks:
- Week 2: Brian Robinson 87 yards, 2 TDs
- Week 3: Achane/Mostert 285 yards, 5 TDs
- Week 4: Khalil Herbert 103 yards
- Week 5: Breece Hall 177 yards, 1 TD
Isiah Pacheco is the lead back for this team – he has 71 carries on the season compared to Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 28, and Pacheco has rushed the ball 36 times over the last two weeks, posting 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns. His line is set at 72.5 for this game, but given how porous this defence has been, there’s value in going for over 100 rushing yards at a huge 39/10.
The brace for the running back also looks strong at 4/1 in a game where there will be a positive game script with the heavily favoured Chiefs dominating the ball – leading to more rushes and more scoring opportunities for Pacheco.
Russell Wilson isn’t even playing badly (he’s thrown 11 touchdowns this season, second in the league) but the entire franchise is a mess right now. This could be the start of a Broncos fire sale, as the franchise trades away their star names (Patrick Surtain is one who is mentioned a lot) and looks to truly rebuild from the ground up.
On a short week, back Mahomes and Andy Reid in what should be a case of business as usual for the Chiefs.
Score prediction: Chiefs 37-17 Broncos
Posted at 2035 BST on 10/10/23
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