We've two massive outsiders on the radar in this week's HotelPlanner Tour event, which sees the circuit visit Estonia for the very first time.
- Estonia hosts for the first time at this level
- Course staged big amateur event in July
- Favourite opposed in PGA Tour specials
Golf betting tips
0.75pt e.w. John Axelsen in the Estonian Challenge at 275/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
0.5pt e.w. Richard Teder in the Estonian Challenge at 500/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt Nicolai Hojgaard top continental European, Hideki Matsuyama top Asian at 17/1 (General)
0.5pt Nicolai Hojgaard top continental European, Sungjae Im top Asian at 37/1 (General)
The HotelPlanner Tour breaks new ground this week by visiting Estonia's capital, Tallin, for the Infortar Estonian Challenge. It's the first time the country has held a major tour-level event, but Estonian Golf & Country Club has been a big part of the amateur scene in recent years and golf in the country is on the rise.
That rise is led by RICHARD TEDER, the confident youngster who qualified for the Open in miraculous fashion last summer. He's not done anything at this level yet, but last week's professional debut wasn't without promise as he was 11th after an opening 68 only to miss the cut. A member here (though he spends a lot of practice time in Turkey), I won't be alone in having been surprised to see 1,000/1 on the opening show.
Chances are he's outclassed but Teder was a semi-finalist in the Amateur Championship a few weeks ago and the winner of that was about the same price for the Open Championship. This is several leagues below, he has both course knowledge and some tangible evidence of good play there at amateur level, and throwing a few pennies in his direction might appeal to the dreamers among you.
Teder topped the European Boys' leaderboard here in 2021 and while that B-flight competition seriously lacked depth, he was back at this course earlier this month where his second-round 67 was among the best in a much stronger European Amateur Team Championship. In fact just three players bettered it (192 rounds in total) and Teder went on to perform well in the match play rounds.
All this may count for little once tee peg meets ground in a professional event where he'll be the main draw, but Teder is not lacking in self-belief, he gives the ball a rip, and he's played this golf course many times before including in competition this very month. And while the opening show has been cut in half, for the smallest stakes I don't mind taking anything bigger than 200/1.
But the real reason I sat down to write this preview wasn't his price but that of JOHN AXELSEN, who can be backed at 275/1 at the time of writing.
This is a talented Dane who was a teammate of the Hojgaard twins before turning professional, by which time he'd already bagged a top-five finish on the HotelPlanner Tour. In his first DP World Tour start as a pro he was 37th having been in the mix in an event won by Antoine Rozner and the following year he set about becoming one of the stars of the Nordic Golf League, one of the best production lines in Europe.
Had you asked me then I'd have made him a short price to be a DP World Tour champion by now and he came close during his rookie season in 2023, leading through 54 holes of an event won by Tom McKibbin and playing well in several starts during summer. It wasn't quite enough to keep his card, but down at this level in 2024 we saw another burst of form with three top-10s in four at the end of August.
This helps show that when he finds something he tends to keep hold of it and we saw it last year too, when he went 17-58-5-28-29 out of nowhere and was frequently close to the lead for a while, again during summer. But there's been plenty of struggle, too, and throughout the first seven months of this year he missed a lot of cuts, including back on the NGL where he really ought to be among the standout players.
So, we've that conflict of talent versus results and I fully understand why he's been dangled at a big price, but having missed three cuts very narrowly from the beginning of June, last week he fought back with a second-round 66 to make the weekend, then progressed through the final two rounds to climb to 10th. In light of these bursts he's shown pretty much every season, might it be the precursor to another?
That's far from guaranteed and I'd have probably let him run at most courses, but this is one he's played before. It was a while ago, a decade in fact, but Axelsen finished ninth in the always strong European Amateur, with Viktor Hovland second, Robert MacIntyre fourth, Connor Syme fifth, and Adrian Meronk beside him. At the time, Axelsen was every bit as promising as all of them, Hovland and MacIntyre included.
Coming back here after his best golf in more than 12 months must be a positive and 26 birdies last week shows the damage this player can do. He made two doubles and a triple at the closing hole during to offset much of the good stuff, but the bottom line is he produced some of the best golf in the field over the closing 54 holes and there is enough about him to merit taking a chance at the odds.
Axelsen's compatriot Kristian Bressum managed an even more impressive salvage job to be fourth having been a shot behind him after round one. But he'd missed 19 cuts in 24 tour-level starts prior to that, hasn't played this course before, and unlike Axelsen is yet to prove his class in higher grades.
There are a handful of others who played here 10 years ago, Andrew Wilson, Lorenzo Scalise and Will Enefer perhaps the most likely winners among them, but forced to choose among the market principals I'd be leaning towards the Scandinavians. This course should be aesthetically familiar and it reminds me a bit of a couple in Sweden, particularly Landeryd's Vesterby Links and maybe Barseback too.
Kristian Krogh Johannessen is establishing himself as a class act now back from injury, averaging 68.8 for his 26 rounds at this level and going close twice before finishing 11th in Germany. He's the man to beat, but we're just across the water from Finland and I could see Tapio Pulkkanen going well along with Sweden's Adam Wallin, though the latter has seen his progress stall a little of late.
Finally, Lars van Meijel played here in 2016 and has form at Vesterby, where he was fifth two summers ago. He was 10th at halfway last week before fading and has played solidly for most of the year, but he is what he is and there's just not enough to go on. That applies to those favourites mentioned and to return to the top, there was really no plan to preview this event before a show of betting arrived.
Two missed cuts is the probable outcome, but I don't think it's a particularly strong circuit this year and last week's runaway winner had no form to speak of coming in. With the bar lower than it sometimes has been, I'm happy taking two young talents to clear it, however unlikely that seems.
Oppose Kim in Detroit
Over on the PGA Tour, I'm really keen to take on Si Woo Kim after his Open heartache and this is the place to do it. Kim has played in the Rocket Classic five times and on four occasions has failed to crack the top 50, the other seeing him chip and putt his way to 14th.
It doesn't look the right golf course for a player who was extremely self-critical when fading from first to sixth over the final eight holes of the Open and now has to go again after a break. I imagine he'd be happy to get four decent rounds under his belt and move on to the Wyndham, which is far more suitable, and he doesn't set the bar high for all that his form this year has been generally excellent.
I've HIDEKI MATSUYAMA and SUNGJAE IM in my outright staking plan so nothing more needs saying when it comes to which players appeal most against Kim in the top Asian market, but rather than singles I'll double them with NICOLAI HOJGAARD to be the top continental European.
Hojgaard is the pick of the Scandinavians, with his twin brother struggling since returning from injury and Kris Ventura possibly the danger ahead of Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, but we can inflate the price by adding two German players, two Frenchmen, one Belgian and an Italian.
Of this cluster only Stephan Jaeger worries me but he's missed successive cuts, is putting poorly, and hasn't played well here in several years. Hojgaard is firmly expected to make the weekend and may have very little to beat thereafter in the weakest tournament he's played for a while, in fact just the second time he's dropped markedly in grade since finishing runner-up in Houston.
Hojgaard is about 2/1 for a top-20 finish but I'll be surprised if that's not enough to win this market so will take the 7/2 instead.
Posted at 19:10 BST on 28/07/26
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