Who will make Luke Donald's European Ryder Cup team?

Contents

1. European Ryder Cup qualification

2. Team Europe according to the odds

3. Ben Coley's Team Europe

4. Value Ryder Cup options

5. Poor value Ryder Cup options

6. Latest qualification standings

Six qualifiers come September

Qualification for the European Ryder Cup team began at Wentworth in September, as Shane Lowry leapt to the top of the European points list where he now lies second behind Jon Rahm. Three players will qualify from this list, with another three from the companion World points list. Captain Luke Donald with then make six wild card selections.

It remains likely that automatic qualification is dominated by a select group of players, most of them having featured in a Ryder Cup before. Right now, Rahm, Lowry and Rory McIlroy take up the top three places in both lists. Should they continue to dominate the European one, which takes precedence, that's good news for those higher on the World equivalent such as Seamus Power.

Ultimately, it will be a shock if Rahm, Lowry and McIlroy three aren't joined by Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland, with the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Thomas Pieters also in the mix for the likely sixth spot. But there are a couple of interesting dynamics before we even get to the fact that in electing to have six picks, Donald will have more of a say over his line-up than any of his predecessors in the role.

One immediate element to consider is that only one event matches the four majors for European points: the DP World Tour Championship. That is now a week away, and worth more than the BMW PGA captured by Lowry. Should some in-form hopeful such as Robert MacIntyre or Jordan Smith win it, they'll find themselves in an extremely strong position on the European list, with just three more Rolex Series events to come before the race ends and one of them, in Abu Dhabi, not certain to attract all the big names.

At the same time, the gap between those marquee events in Europe and the rest of the schedule has narrowed considerably. Now, the upcoming Mauritius Open is worth a quarter of the DP World Tour Championship, and most week-to-week events will be worth almost half. Should a player land a couple of titles, as Ewen Ferguson has done this year, suddenly this will look like a platform for automatic qualification at the expense of someone juggling memberships on both the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour.

Then there's the captain, Donald, and a man who might be even more influential when it comes to completing the side: vice captain Edoardo Molinari. The latter has long been known for his intellect and fascination with analytics. Now, he advises a number of fellow professionals on course strategy, including US Open winner Fitzpatrick, and that more than the fact he's Italian is why he's considered a key part of the European set-up.

I expect Molinari, whose brother Francesco produced a record-breaking performance under ideal conditions in Paris, will lean heavily on data to encourage Donald to select players who really fit the course. That ought to mean power is considered a vital weapon at Marco Simone and should help make the case for a number of potential rookies, including course winners MacIntyre and Nicolai Hojgaard.

Back in August, I'd have said this team was not particularly difficult to select in advance. Now, following wins for some of the best young players in Europe and for Power out in the USA, things look complicated. In football parlance these are nice problems for Donald to have. Suddenly, there's a depth to his options as players respond to McIlroy's rallying cry at Wentworth.

Whatever team is named will be strong and, I believe, capable of causing what would now amount to an upset despite years of home-soil domination.

Team Europe according to the odds

• Prices via Sky Bet & correct at 1300 GMT on 08/11/22

At the time of writing, less than 48 hours before the Nedbank Challenge begins, Sky Bet make these the 12 most likely to represent Europe:

Jon Rahm (1/66), Rory McIlroy (1/66), Viktor Hovland (1/66), Matthew Fitzpatrick (1/25), Shane Lowry (1/25), Tyrrell Hatton (1/25), Tommy Fleetwood (1/10), Paul Casey (1/2), Robert MacIntyre (1/2), Thomas Pieters (1/2), Rasmus Hojgaard (evens), and Seamus Power (11/10)

Such a team would feature just three rookies but only one 40-something, the old guard having been moved along. That 40-something is the player who stands out. For elephant in the room, read LIV player in the team: ex-Unicef ambassador turned Golf Saudi champion, Paul Casey.

I have my doubts as to whether Casey will want to play in the event, before we even get to his eligibility, the likelihood of him qualifying, and the willingness of Donald to select him. Certainly, you'd want to lay all you can at 1/2. Sergio Garcia (2/1) has all but waved goodbye to the competition and whether he wants to or not, Casey may be compelled to do the same.

Otherwise, there's little to argue with. Hatton is a poor price on the basis of his form in 2022 but should rectify that and has a good record in all four Rolex Series events, while Pieters should probably be shorter than both MacIntyre and Casey, but this amounts to splitting hairs.

Eight players seem all but certain members of the team and there's little doubt that following his win at the host course, MacIntyre is towards the front of the queue for the ninth spot.

Team Europe according to... me

This is fluid, of course, and I'll change my mind – as will Donald – numerous times before September 2023.

For now, I'll go with the following:

• Rahm
• McIlroy
• Hovland
• Fitzpatrick
• Lowry
• Hatton
• Fleetwood
• Pieters
• MacIntyre
• R Hojgaard
• N Hojgaard
• Detry

Without doubt, Power is the glaring omission and he has to be a serious threat having not only won in Bermuda, ending a run of poor form, but backed it up in Mexico. He's a fabulous player who took out DP World Tour membership earlier in the year and would be ahead of Detry were the event played next week, just as Jordan Smith would have to be ahead of Nicolai Hojgaard.

However, big things lie ahead for Detry and I like the idea of him pairing up with Pieters as they did so brilliantly in the now defunct World Cup in 2018. As for Smith, he'll need to sustain his putting improvements to muscle in on this side and I hope that Nicolai Hojgaard, a course winner with genuine X-factor, can add consistency to his game and do so himself.

Certainly, I can see a scenario whereby the more reliable Rasmus Hojgaard makes the side, and Donald falls for the idea of having a twin brothers combination. It would be an exciting one from a European perspective and, after a mauling in Wisconsin, new blood is certainly needed.

Where is the value?

• CLICK HERE for Sky Bet's odds on Ryder Cup selection

These markets are offered for fun and with so many firms unwilling to get involved, recommending bets isn't really an option. That's a shame, because for once this is almost all about opinion and interpretation and without the exchanges to guide, and I think there are a number of players who should be considered for those who can place a bet.

In doing so, it's important to remember that we're not really playing for one of 12 places here. In reality, there are no more than four slots which are properly available, even considering the above changes to qualification. If someone like MacIntyre does qualify automatically ahead of someone like Hatton, the likelihood is that Hatton simply takes up one of the six wild cards instead.

THOMAS DETRY (5/1)

Were the side announced today, Detry would be on it, and the other five automatic qualifiers are all 11/10 or shorter. He's right behind Power and MacIntyre in World points owing to a fabulous start to his rookie season on the PGA Tour, and I really believe we're witnessing a player with enormous talent accelerating down the road to fulfilling it.

That he's all but secured his PGA Tour playing rights for 2023-24 already means he can focus on what he says is his primary goal, and having McIlroy's old caddie, JP Fitzgerald, should only help. It's also worth noting he won the World Cup with Pieters in 2018 and that could be decisive in a close call for a wild card pick. Of the realistic options for selection, he's the best bet.

ANTOINE ROZNER (9/1)

Although currently plagued by short-putting issues, Rozner is hitting the ball as well as he ever has and remains with the potential to establish himself as a viable Ryder Cup option. Right now, he's just behind Guido Migliozzi in Race to Dubai points, and while the latter has the added benefit of being Italian, Rozner's form is much more solid. Prices of 5/2 and 9/1 are too far apart and perhaps should meet somewhere in the middle.

EWEN FERGUSON (25/1)

For whatever reason, possibly the fact that both wins came at a relatively low level, Ferguson still hasn't captured the imagination of punters. And yet, he's currently one place above compatriot MacIntyre on the Race to Dubai, the two surely spurring each other on as the season has unfolded.

Ferguson doesn't have the same high-level form as MacIntyre and is far less likely to make the side, but this has been a superb year nevertheless and he could easily have won more than twice, having been edged out in Denmark and blown a big lead in Kenya (though the latter likely helped him to subsequent wins). He's not one I expect to make the side, but he's achieved far more of late than anyone else around this price.

THORBJORN OLESEN (25/1)

Similarly, Olesen is a winner this year whose long-game is on the up. He may never be the player he was, one who captured a singles point in the 2018 Ryder Cup, but I wouldn't be keen to rule out that prospect. Certainly, he'll begin 2023 hopeful that he can make an unlikely bid for a return to the side, and his strong Middle East record is a plus with three of the four biggest DP World Tour events held in the UAE.

ROMAIN LANGASQUE (66/1)

On sheer ability, Langasque is overpriced at 66/1. That puts him alongside the likes of James Morrison and compatriot Julien Brun and while Langasque's season has tailed off, it's been far more rewarding than those of the players around him in the betting. Certainly he's a player who should have Ryder Cup ambitions and it won't take much for him to sneak into view.

HURLY LONG (150/1)

Long is completely the wrong price at an absurd 150/1 at the time of writing. That puts a player ranked 22nd on the Race to Dubai at bigger odds than John Murphy, who doesn't have DP World Tour membership. It puts him alongside the captain, Donald, and 2012 team member Nicolas Colsaerts. He's considered less likely than Matteo Manassero to make the team.

Now, betting on obvious mistakes is top of the list of don'ts, but this price is more a misjudgement than a mistake and has been there for a while (although that's presumably about to change). Long, one of the best young players in Europe and guaranteed to be eligible for all four Rolex Series events, should be in the 10-25/1 region, along with compatriot Yannik Paul (14/1).

MARCEL SCHNEIDER (200/1)

Ahead of this week's Nedbank Challenge, Schneider is around the 50/1 mark, priced similarly to someone like Adrian Meronk. As far as next year's Ryder Cup goes, they're priced at 8/1 and 200/1 respectively. Schneider has been around a while but he's developing rapidly at the moment, one of the leading ball-strikers on the circuit, and his position in the market is an oversight. It's not likely he makes the team, but it's far more likely than these odds suggest.

Who is too short?

NIKLAS NORGAARD MOLLER (12/1)

Quite why Moller is a 12/1 shot, I'm not sure. He's only just managed to keep hold of his card for 2023 and while blessed with awesome power, for now he's still some way from harnessing it. It's interesting to note that his compatriot Marcus Helligkilde is 50/1 and you could quite easily swap these prices. No, that's not it: Moller's needs a 5 on the end of it; Helligkilde is fine where he is.

ALEX FITZPATRICK (25/1)

Having turned professional this summer, it's a huge ask for Fitzpatrick to join his brother on the side. Yes, the idea of two Fitzpatricks will appeal to many, not least Molinari, but Alex does not have full status on a major tour for 2023 as yet. Without it, his prospects are close to zero, and it's bizarre to have him the same odds as Ewen Ferguson and 2018 Ryder Cup player Thorbjorn Olesen, both of whom will be in Dubai next week and fighting for precious points.

PAUL BARJON (25/1)

Status is key, and Barjon is another who's just lost his. No longer a full PGA Tour member, we may not see him again until the Korn Ferry Tour resumes in 2023. He'd need to win three times in his first dozen or so starts on that circuit to regain PGA Tour membership, and then probably win again to rubber-stamp it. Even then, he won't be eligible unless he takes out affiliate DP World Tour membership. The Ryder Cup is simply not a realistic goal and 25/1 needs a zero on it.

THE LIV MEMBERS (Various)

It's not immediately clear whether the likes of Richard Bland, Adrian Otaegui or Laurie Canter will be taking part in LIV Golf's second year, so we have to keep that in mind. However, those who do find themselves on one of the 2023 franchises are going to struggle, because opportunities to gather points will be difficult to come by.

For now, there are still no world ranking points available via LIV Golf events and where Canter is concerned, he's dropped a long way down the European membership category list. He won't be getting into the most valuable events on the DP World Tour schedule so I see no real path to qualification, which also means he won't have sufficient opportunities to impress enough for a pick.

Others, like Otaegui, do have access to the big-money events, but it remains to be seen how they're viewed by European leadership. Donald only got the job because Henrik Stenson signed with LIV Golf so it seems unlikely he'll be encouraged to select from the LIV roster, which could mean the end of the road for the likes of Lee Westwood and Ian Poulter, as well as the aforementioned Casey.

Otaegui is one who is upwardly mobile, a proven winner, seemingly playing the golf of his life and potentially more likely to be dropped by LIV Golf. At 14/1, he's a far better option than Bland at the same sort of price and Canter at just 7/1, but there's a lot of guesswork involved and just one thing we know for sure: being a LIV player is not a positive where making a Ryder Cup team is concerned.

Latest Ryder Cup standings

EUROPEAN POINTS LIST

• JON RAHM
• SHANE LOWRY
• RORY MCILROY
• Robert MacIntyre
• Jordan Smith
• Yannik Paul
• Adrian Otaegui
• Rasmus Hojgaard
• Guido Migliozzi
• Matthieu Pavon
• Joakim Lagergren
• Antoine Rozner
• Matt Fitzpatrick
• Callum Shinkwin
• Alex Noren

WORLD POINTS LIST

• Rory McIlroy
• Jon Rahm
• Shane Lowry
• SEAMUS POWER
• ROBERT MACINTYRE
• THOMAS DETRY
• Danny Willett
• Adrian Otaegui
• Guido Migliozzi
• Sepp Straka
• Jordan Smith
• Viktor Hovland
• Matt Fitzpatrick
• Alex Noren