Ben Coley assesses the state of play among US Ryder Cup hopefuls ahead of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which will help shape the side.
How does qualifying work?
Six players will qualify automatically, with that process concluding at the end of the BMW Championship on August 20.
Six wild card selections will then be made by captain Zach Johnson following the TOUR Championship (Aug 24-27), the final event of the PGA Tour season.
Prior to the FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 10-13), one of two remaining events for which points are available, Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark had both qualified for the side already.
Qualification for the United States team now works on a simple formula: $1,000 earned equals one point. $1,000 equalled two points for the winners of each major, and 1.5 points for everyone else in those fields, but with major season now behind us there are no complications.
This means that 3,000 points can be earned by winning either of the first two FedEx Cup Playoff events, which could therefore result in some dramatic late changes to the side. Should any player win both of them, they would have a strong chance to qualify.
Sixth place is currently held by Patrick Cantlay on 8,454 points. Chris Kirk is in 20th place with 4,240 points, which underlines how many players remain in with a mathematical chance of making the team automatically. Realistically, however, focus should be on those for whom one win might be enough.
The top six
With SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER and WYNDHAM CLARK both having qualified, BRIAN HARMAN begins the final run in third place.
Harman jumped from 20th to third with his runaway Open win and though it's possible he falls out of the top six, not only is that unlikely, but it's also worth noting that he has a strong relationship with Zach Johnson who, as a two-time major champion himself, will surely be loathe to leave out the winner of the last major to be played.
Phil Mickelson didn't make the 2021 side after his PGA Championship win, but four months had passed. Harman will only play in two more events before qualifying ends and would presumably have to finish near last in each, and fall outside the top six, for his place in the side to be under threat.
BROOKS KOEPKA cannot earn any more points but has around a 900-point buffer and would be unfortunate not to qualify. Should he fail to, it seems likely the PGA champion, a standout performer on the LIV Golf circuit and also in the mix in the Masters, would be selected.
Unlike some of his fellow renegades, Koepka has maintained strong relationships with teammates and the leadership group. His form is of a very high standard, he's unbeaten for the US in Ryder Cup singles, and his experience in Europe may also be seen as a benefit. He's even won in Italy on the Challenge Tour and this new dad is a near certainty.
The final two qualifiers as things stand are guaranteed to be in the side. XANDER SCHAUFFELE and PATRICK CANTLAY are as consistent as they come, make a formidable pairing, and though winless this year they've barely missed a beat.
Seven of their combined eight major appearances in 2023 ended in top-20s and Johnson might hope that they both qualify, rather than use up wild cards on players who are in the side whatever happens. Both have strong Playoffs records and Cantlay will bid for a BMW Championship hat-trick in the final qualifying event.
The other certainties
In an unusual, perhaps even unprecedented move, vice captain Fred Couples went on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio to name a further three members of the US team. Presumably, he did so with Johnson's blessing, but to give the nod to numbers seven, eight and nine on the list was nevertheless surprising.
They begin with MAX HOMA, whose Presidents Cup performance last year and popularity, combined with an all-round game that saw him win at Torrey Pines, would've made him a surprise omission had it come to that.
By contrast, JORDAN SPIETH's spring wrist injury and a hit-and-miss run of form might've placed him under threat in theory, especially if partner Justin Thomas, who we'll come to later, is not considered for selection. Spieth's modest record at Southwind and the fact he missed the only recent event at Olympia Fields could lead to a quiet fortnight and his name slipping further down the standings.
On the other hand, he's very close with Johnson and was the USA's top scorer at the Presidents Cup last year. Spieth probably deserves the benefit of any doubts, it's just a bit odd to hand out a place to him following a run of 2-MC-29-MC-5-MC-MC-23 since the Masters.
Even more surprising is the advance inclusion of CAMERON YOUNG, who splits Homa and Spieth in eighth following his Open display but has had a largely disappointing season. It's turned around lately with sixth at the John Deere and eighth in the Open, but he remains without a stroke play top five on the PGA Tour in more than a year.
Perhaps this is a nod to Marco Simone and evidence that the US has a plan it will stick to. Young is an exceptional driver and that club has been key to two of the three Italian Opens held at the course, which were won by the best drivers in the field that week. Length and control are massive assets anywhere, but especially there.
The final three places
With so many points still up for grabs, it's still possible that a new, surprising name emerges. Kurt Kitayama for instance has already won at Bay Hill, and were he to win again that would take him beyond Cantlay's current points tally.
Denny McCarthy would almost certainly qualify were he to win his first PGA Tour title during the next fortnight, too. And were Bryson DeChambeau to follow his LIV Golf breakthrough with another win at Bedminster, the case for him would be louder than the one that was being made for Talor Gooch a couple of months ago.
But knowing what we know today, the candidates to complete the side are, in order of their current ranking, as follows: KEEGAN BRADLEY, COLLIN MORIKAWA, RICKIE FOWLER, SAM BURNS, JUSTIN THOMAS and TONY FINAU.
Bradley, Fowler, Burns and Finau are all winners this season – although Burns' win was in the WGC-Match Play. That might catch the eye of some observers, but in general terms form in a one-off event held at a funky course back in the spring is treated just as it should be by those making the decisions: with caution.
Of this bunch, Bradley and Finau share the curious distinction of being both the ones who would be entitled to feel most hard done by, and the ones who might still have to prove something. Along with Scheffler, Homa and Clark, they're the other Americans with two wins during the current PGA Tour season, and Bradley's second one came in a designated event as recently as June.
Desperate to return to the side after almost a decade away and having made such an impression at Medinah before a frustrating experience at Gleneagles, it would seem almost cruel were this popular, passionate character to miss out. And yet, form of MC-MC in the last two majors played gives Johnson an excuse if he wants it.
Finau's two wins have come at a lower level and, combined with some lacklustre performances in majors, there's suddenly a case for dropping him. There would be some irony here, as having played in the 2021 Ryder Cup when a two-time PGA Tour winner, he has since tripled his tally with four titles in little over a year. The trouble is, none of those four wins came in a top-class event, even if he did beat Jon Rahm in one of them.
How much Johnson values trophies may well be revealed in his preference of Finau or Morikawa, the latter having been runner-up twice. Morikawa's majors return is stronger, despite a blip in the Open. Might it prove significant that both have stronger records than Bradley at the two remaining courses, allowing both to make the side at his expense?
Fowler's record at Southwind is similar to that of Spieth and, like Spieth, he also missed the 2020 BMW Championship at Olympia Fields. With his putter back firing and having beaten Morikawa in Detroit to win for the first time in four years, many will feel he's deserving of a return to the side. Increasingly, I wonder if he has yet more to do, and might even have to fulfil the prediction of coach Butch Harmon, who said he'd win twice this season.
Burns struggled at times in the Presidents Cup and his stroke play form this year is poor compared to most of these. There were however very good signs on his last appearance, which coincided with a return to familiar surroundings, and two of the final three events of the season take place in the southern states where he's by far at his most effective.
As things stand he nevertheless seems set to miss out and so could Thomas, who failed to do what was required to make the Playoffs, despite a spirited run at the Wyndham which saw him fall agonisingly short. That to me felt like the bar he had to clear, though some understandably feel the manner of his near-miss may have been enough. Outrage in either direction would be misplaced, but is guaranteed.
Thomas's hopes lie with Johnson feeling that his partnership with Spieth and his team room presence are undroppable. However that now seems a little fanciful, as might the idea that he comes to Europe to take part in some DP World Tour events to demonstrate his desire to feature. Johnson no doubt would tell him were that an option. It is not impossible that he tells him something else: don't worry, you're in regardless.
Predicted line-up
- Scottie Scheffler
- Wyndham Clark
- Brian Harman
- Brooks Koepka
- Xander Schauffele
- Patrick Cantlay
- Max Homa
- Jordan Spieth
- Cameron Young
- Collin Morikawa
- Tony Finau
- Rickie Fowler
The bottom line is that the next three weeks ought to play a big part in shaping this side. Victory for Fowler, Finau, Morikawa, Bradley or Burns would surely earn them a spot, either automatically or via a wild card pick. Should all of them fail, then Thomas's prospects might improve without him needing to pick up a club.
As things stand I'm going to buy into the idea that Finau can build on seventh place in the 3M Open, with Olympia Fields possibly a really good opportunity. Morikawa might've already done enough by then and either way this two-time major champion ought to be in the side, especially if it's one without Thomas's iron play.
It may therefore come down to Fowler versus Bradley, two players who duelled for the ZOZO Championship last October and have come a long way since Bradley got the better of things there. Fowler is given the edge based more on who he is than what he's done, though it should be said he's ahead of Bradley in the DataGolf rankings and in OWGR's strokes-gained ratings at the moment.
Ultimately, it's about who does something from here. Both could be vulnerable if the answer to that is neither.
As for the DeChambeau question, which was the Gooch question not so very long ago, short memories are at play among those in support of his inclusion. Remember how pairing Phil and Tiger didn't work? Remember how Azinger's pod system in 2008, a team with Boo Weekley and Chad Campbell on it, did?
This is a team competition. After years of US introspection, the conclusion of which was something like 'let's try being an actual team', the idea of throwing one of LIV Golf's chief provocateurs into the mix is frankly laughable.
Unfortunately for those of us hoping for a European win, Johnson will see it that way too. I'm not even sure DeChambeau would be selected were he to win again and the idea that a man who has gone MC-4-20-60 in the majors this year is conclusively one of the best golfers in the USA seems no less absurd.