Ludvig Aberg can capture his first major in this week's PGA Championship according to Ben Coley, who has five selections for Aronimink.
- Scottie Scheffler defends title in second major of 2026
- Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young next in the betting
- Aronimink set to serve up interesting test for deep field
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship
4pts e.w. Ludvig Aberg at 20/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
3pts win Bryson DeChambeau at 30.0 (Betfair Exchange; 22/1 general)
2pts e.w. Brooks Koepka at 35/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1.5pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay 45/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
The sense that the majors have been one of the few winners during golf's civil war has only been heightened by recent events. It's not just that the news cycle has been dominated by anything but Rory McIlroy beating Scottie Scheffler in the weeks since that thrilling finish to the Masters, it's that the actual golf to have taken place subsequently has often failed to capture the imagination, despite the undoubted quality on display.
Whether it's been Jon Rahm winning in Mexico or Cameron Young in Florida, there's been a lack of buzz which feels less like a Masters hangover, more like apathy. When money becomes such a dominant part of sport, it's only natural that some people become deadened and forget that which moved them in the first place. If you can have too much of a good thing, you can certainly have much too much of a bad thing.
Thankfully, the four majors in men's golf remain impervious to this growing sense of a sport which requires recalibration. There are four weeks spaced equally across three months which really do matter, even if they are so quickly shunted off the timelines, comment sections and subreddits. McIlroy becoming just the fourth player in history to successfully defend the Masters will be the thing we remember in the end.
Some would argue that the PGA Championship ought to be removed from the quartet, cut loose as the runt of the litter, and there are elements of truth to this. Beggars can't be choosers, but there aren't many beggars amid golf's financial boom and not one player would put this at the top of their list of ambitions, places which invariably belong to either the Masters or the Open Championship.
Then there's the sense that this one lacks the identity which the US Open certainly has and that's been exacerbated by the ill advised move from August to May. Given that this is the major which most resembles a PGA Tour event, having it immediately follow one held at last year's PGA Championship venue is not a good thing. That sort of crossover confusion really shouldn't be possible and it's where golf's divide has helped, because the cast list at least changes even when playing conditions don't.
There are though some more endearing qualities to this tournament, wherever it sits on the schedule. The strength of the field is one – inarguably, this is the one measurement by which it stands apart from the other majors for positive reasons – and by and large the PGA of America has done a good job preparing championship courses to test golfers in a manner apposite to the sport as it is today. That is to say, sometimes we have to compromise in order to identify the best player on a given week.
The PGA Championship has done that in a broadly satisfying way. In particular, its tendency to reduce the significance of putting through course selection and set-up is welcome, as that part of the game is far less tractable. Last year, Scottie Scheffler led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green and gained just 15% of his strokes with the putter. Nobody near the lead faked it, as it were, and the same was true when the best long-game exponents dominated even at a soft, unsatisfactory Valhalla, as it was at Oak Hill before that.
Like Oak Hill, Aronimink is a classical, Donald Ross design of which the man himself said: "I intended to make this course my masterpiece, but not until today did I realise I built better than I knew." We know what it will look like and we know broadly what to expect from a course which averages 10 bunkers per hole after Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner completed a restoration project in 2017, since when we've had a PGA Tour event won by Keegan Bradley in 2018, and a women's major championship two years later.
The former ended on Monday after heavy rain so the fact that Aronimink suited the bombers may not tell us much, but the Women's PGA Championship surely does. Of the top 11 players on the leaderboard, nine ranked 35th or better for the year in driving distance. That includes Bianca Pagdanganan, who was first for the season and ended each of her six years on the circuit ranked inside the top 10. She is a powerhouse who made no impact in any of her other major starts.
Aronimink's real defence is its greens, notoriously contoured and difficult to master, with some devilish pin positions guaranteed. That though only feeds the need to be as close as possible to them, thereby able to hit as many wedges as possible and more than we'd perhaps expect in a major. On a recent scouting mission, Padraig Harrington said 'generally you’ll see a lot guys bombing drivers to leave shorter shots out of the rough' and that evokes memories of another 2020 major, the US Open at Winged Foot, where Bryson DeChambeau bombed, gouged and putted his way to a dominant win.
"Aronimink rewards precision over power, " claims the PGA Championship website. Well we'll just have to see about that. My sense is that this still quite meaty par 70, which is listed at 7,394 yards but will at times play shorter with the 13th tee pushed forward, is going to reward quality driving, and in today's game that generally relies more on power than precision. It is expected to fill the gap between a high-class PGA Tour event and what was a typical US Open, whether that gap needed filling or not.
Having taken long enough to get to this point I won't waste too many words on the favourites, except to say I can't pick holes in them. Scheffler looks back close to his imperious best and his pinpoint approach play works a treat here, McIlroy ranked first both off the tee and with his approaches in 2018 and ended on the front foot last week, while Cam Young is arguably the form player in world golf right now.
However at the prices, I would rather have two of the big eight running for me and will start things off with LUDVIG ABERG.
While the PGA Championship is the most competitive major on paper, these predictable course set-ups remove some of the randomness inherent to an Open or a US Open. In those, we've seen Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark and JJ Spaun cause upsets in very recent times, whereas the list of PGA winners has been far more straightforward.
You have to go back to 2021 for the latest exception and it isn't a coincidence that Phil Mickelson's stunning victory, at odds of about 125/1, came on a leaderboard which looked as much UK and Ireland as it did Kiawah Island. Padraig Harrington, Louis Oosthuizen and Shane Lowry were all in the mix on a firm, windy week in South Carolina, which became at the very least links-adjacent.
It had been five years since the previous surprise, courtesy of another 125/1 shot in Jimmy Walker, and again the weather played its part. Baltusrol was soaked and most players had to complete 36 holes on Sunday, where preferred lies were in operation, and Walker was accompanied by Robert Streb in the final group.
Otherwise, the recent history of this event has been one of predictability and the number one pointer has been recent form. Since the move to May, winners of this outside of Mickelson played a combined 16 events after the Masters, had two wins, 11 more top-10 finishes, two more top-20s, and a worst of 35th. Scheffler had gone 4-8-1 last year and Xander Schauffele 8-18-2 before him. They were among the hottest players.
And that's certainly a description which fits Aberg, who seeks to emulate Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Walker and Jason Day by making the PGA his first major championship win. He arrives on the back of five straight top-10s on the PGA Tour plus a share of 21st in the Masters, where a poor first round cost him, and he set himself up perfectly for this with a flying finish to the Truist Championship on Sunday.
Despite having struggled at Quail Hollow a year earlier, Aberg rattled through the pack with a final-round 66 to finish eighth and it was all thanks to another sublime ball-striking display. He's generally been back to his best off the tee this year, but what I really like is that his iron play, which will have to be excellent this week, has been among the best in the field on four of his last six starts, with the best of the year coming last week.
Having improved quite dramatically around the greens, that means we're left hoping for a bit better on them and having putted so well on bentgrass in the Masters prior to this year, that can be seen as a positive. Regardless of surface, six of his last eight starts have been of a standard that would be good enough to go close were he to continue to hit the ball as well as he did when second in the tee-to-green stats in the Truist.
Arguably the main snag with Aberg is that he's gone MC-MC in this event but both were by a stroke and last year he'd been up and down, yet the price was about the same. Fast-forward 12 months and, having been 23rd and 21st on his last two major starts, he looks ready to get back in the mix under conditions which ought to be ideal. Few are exuding such ball-striking confidence and he's a major champion in the making, of that I am sure.
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- 25/1 - Aberg and DeChambeau both top-five (including ties)
- 33/1 - Aberg top 10, Koepka top 20, Cantlay top 30, Niemann top 40
The other two I like are Jon Rahm and BRYSON DECHAMBEAU and preference is for the latter, who boasts a superior record in this.
DeChambeau has only been beaten by five golfers over the past three renewals of the PGA Championship, starting at the Ross-designed Oak Hill which I think is probably as good a guide as we have. As touched upon, Winged Foot could offer some clues so his dominant win there also stands out, and his second US Open title came at another Ross design, so his name was hard to escape when piecing together clues.
Last month's Masters disappointment was a bitter blow given that he arrived there having won back-to-back LIV Golf events, but he's now been eased out substantially in the betting despite the fact that this could be a better fit for him. I've always felt that he can bully Augusta to a point but will ultimately be found out there, whereas his strengths may enable him to overwhelm a course like Aronimink.
DeChambeau has some course experience from back in 2018 where a round of 64 offers some promise, but much has changed since and I'd rather focus on the more immediate positives, including a back-to-form weekend in Virginia where rounds of 64 and 66 saw him climb to third place. Perhaps, rather than the in-your-face hat-trick bid of the Masters, this quieter preparation will serve him better.
Crucially, DeChambeau's approach play was as good as it's been in a year, his previous best preceding the 2025 PGA which saw him pose the biggest threat to Scheffler for a long time, and like Aberg he too has improved around the greens. We'll see just how important that aspect of the game is, but I certainly have fewer concerns here than I would at Augusta.
With eight top-10 finishes in his last 15 majors we know all about DeChambeau's ability to perform on the sport's biggest stages and the icing on the cake is exactly where this tournament is taking place. He boasts a phenomenal record in the northeastern states, with wins in Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts, and has also won in West Virginia, which borders Pennsylvania to the south.
That's at least something to do with the grass types and styles of golf course and as I feel distance could be an underestimated advantage this week, the two-time major champion offers plenty of upside at north of 20/1, with his lag-putting ability another handy weapon, and hints of rain in the forecast no bad thing either.
There's also risk, especially as he says he's been dealing with nagging injuries for a long time now, so given his profile he's one I don't mind selecting win-only at generous odds rather than paying a place premium. The exchanges are the place to go for those who can and, at the time of writing, there's plenty of 29.0 and 30.0 available. To my eye twice the price of Augusta seems generous.
Joy of six for simmering Koepka
For both DeChambeau and Rahm there's an argument that the recent LIV Golf bombshell will hinder them on the golf course and that's certainly something to consider.
In fact it's the one thing that puts me off Rahm, who otherwise ought to hold outstanding claims having also made a run at this title last year. He just looks less comfortable than DeChambeau with the state things at the moment and I'll be impressed, though not surprised as such, if he can silence his doubters.
BROOKS KOEPKA will have a few of those unless and until he wins again but he's won me over with his attitude and his performances since returning to the PGA Tour, and I remain of the belief that he'll go very close before the season is finished.
So far you could take the view that his results since returning in February have been underwhelming, but after a quiet first fortnight he's since played six times as an individual and has five finishes between ninth and 18th, including 12th place in the Masters despite a troublesome putter last month.
That to me is a clear indication that he's close and while it was frustrating to watch so many putts slide by in Myrtle Beach last week, I feel sure he'll have left there feeling he's ready to win a sixth major and rejoin McIlroy on that number. It was the best he's driven the ball in a long time (the Masters had been his best in a long time, but has immediately been eclipsed), and approach upon approach was fired at the flag.
Perhaps notably, Koepka led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green and the last time he did that on the PGA Tour was in 2021, which he followed with sixth place in a major on his next start. It's something he's only managed a handful of times, as a matter of fact, and another of them preceded his victory at Bellerive in this very tournament in 2018.
All this is dated of course but it's a matter of fact that he's the leading iron player on the PGA Tour this year, so with his driver beginning to sing again it's the small matter of the putter we're left to deal with. I can say no more than I believe it's a problem he'll resolve and as this major tends to place less of a demand on the putter anyway, it's a chance I don't mind taking.
Koepka won his last major in the PGA Championship at another Ross-designed course and was 12th here in Pennsylvania at Oakmont last summer. All told he has three wins and three more top-fives in this tournament and, right now, his long-game is good enough to contend again.
Returning to the 2018 BMW Championship it's striking that driving skill proved extremely predictive with players like McIlroy, DeChambeau and Koepka all towards the top of the charts. It's partly why I've wondered about having Min Woo Lee on-side, particularly as his chipping is exceptional, but a run of four major missed cuts in a row is undeniably troubling for one of such potential.
Chris Gotterup's record across these tournaments has been better and he's another powerful, high-class driver who came into my thinking, but while recent winning form gives him an edge over PATRICK CANTLAY, I'm still of the view that the latter is better equipped to go ahead and win this week.
Some will disagree with that given how long it's been since he won anything, but if this does go to another red-hot player then Cantlay's form line of 7-12-8-10 marks him down as a viable contender. It includes a strong showing at the Masters and, just last week, by far his best performance in six visits to Quail Hollow.
Cantlay defied a slowish start there to improve his position each day although it was nothing like the turnaround he produced at the Masters, where after an opening 77 he had no right to make the cut, let alone climb to 12th. With eighth place despite a cool putter in the Heritage subsequently and seventh in the Valspar just before, he looks to be coming right back to his best.
That would make him a danger anywhere but, like DeChambeau, he's been especially effective in the northeastern states, where I dare say conditions are more resemblant of their California upbringings than their respective Texas and Florida homes. Cantlay is a two-time winner at the Memorial in Ohio, he's done everything but win in Connecticut, he beat Bryson in Maryland, and has been second in Michigan and third in New York.
Cantlay also contended for the US Open at the Ross-designed Pinehurst behind DeChambeau and was 14th at Oak Hill, so he has a really nice profile when you throw in some excellent driving stats this year, the fact that he's always excellent around the greens, and a blend of solidified approach play and improved putting.
And while he was a bit lacklustre here in 2018, it certainly can't hurt that he's actually played eight competitive rounds at Aronimink having been 20th under much tougher conditions as an amateur. Fourth in Pennsylvania at last year's Truist, he looks a solid each-way option at a nice price in what's another top-heavy major market.
Keen on forgotten man Joaquin
It'll be interesting to see if shorter drivers whose wedge play and general short-games are their strengths are able to compete, and if so Russell Henley and Si Woo Kim may prove overpriced.
However I have really come to see this as a good driving test where those who can get wedges in their hands as often as possible will put that sizeable advantage to use, so it's the longer-driving outsiders I much prefer.
Among them, I'll take my chances with JOAQUIN NIEMANN, who defied a terrible start to finally bag his first major championship top 10 in this tournament last year.
It was a campaign which saw Niemann win five of 14 events on the LIV Golf circuit and I'd have anticipated him returning for another go at the PGA as one of the market principals, but a rotten run in-between LIV seasons has seen his odds multiply.
There's no denying the fact that he was poor on the DP World Tour at the end of 2025 but things are definitely looking up again, after a bogey-free, 12-under weekend to finish eighth as defending champion in Virginia last week.
Niemann's putter finally warmed up there but he'd been playing well enough without it, leading through 54 holes in Singapore, finishing 12th in South Africa and then 20th in Mexico, before producing some of his best golf of the year last weekend.
A long, brilliant driver who is really good around the green, a formula which saw him win at Riviera before departing the PGA Tour, he will need to improve with his irons but has a couple of recent flashes in that department and can do so at a course I think will suit him down to the ground.
Niemann has won in Virginia and West Virginia, been third and sixth in Ohio, has two top-fives from two starts in Michigan, has been second, third and fourth in Illinois, fifth in Connecticut and seventh in New Jersey, while he showed enough promise too when 23rd behind DeChambeau in the 2020 US Open.
That form in Michigan came at another Ross-designed course and he was good on his final start at East Lake, leading after round one, but above all else it's his blend of length and skill around the green I'm drawn to. It might not have been enough but for his storming finish in Virginia where, for once, I suspect LIV Golf organisers gave their players a suitable warm-up test, and that is ultimately the trigger.
Adam Scott ought to play well, as he's done virtually every week lately, while Kurt Kitayama is another powerhouse with upside given his fourth place at Oak Hill three years ago. Scott has course form and Kitayama has won in Minnesota as well as a big PGA Tour event against many of the world's best, but for both these players there are concerns over avoiding at least one bad day at the office.
For that reason I'll stick with a team of five, hopeful too that some readers will have followed December's advice and perhaps have some very nice prices about Matt Fitzpatrick in particular safely tucked away. After the toughest start to a year I've ever had, victory for Fitzpatrick would only undo some of the damage, but steps in the right direction is what we're after. Perhaps the first of them comes this week. Thanks for reading.
Posted at 19:00 BST on 11/05/26
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