Golf betting tips: PLAYERS Championship round three
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The second round of the PLAYERS Championship will be completed on Saturday, but the pertinent information we know: level-par makes the weekend, nine-under leads, and everyone with a weekend tee-time will feel that they still have some kind of chance in what looks an open tournament.
Several high-profile names have exited, including the last two winners of this fabulous tournament, Webb Simpson and Rory McIlroy. Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Tyrrell Hatton and Tony Finau are others to have been humbled by TPC Sawgrass, where bad shots invariably mean big numbers and conditions have been difficult despite very little wind.
All of it feels a little unpredictable (granted, I would say that) and yet at the top of the betting are the two who fought out last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bryson DeChambeau and Lee Westwood, and Matt Fitzpatrick, who shades favouritism. Fitzpatrick ended last year pipping Westwood to victory in the DP World Tour Championship and, after a slow start to 2021, has been in eye-catching form since returning to the US. Westwood, nearly 48, continues to defy time.
DeChambeau is three shots back of Westwood and two behind Fitzpatrick, and that's despite a modest driving performance. You could argue then that any return to normal off the tee and he's going to tear into the lead, which is certainly possible. On the other hand, might it be that the reason his driving stats are poor is that Sawgrass punishes the bad ones, and doesn't even reward the good ones in the way other courses might?
Certainly, the halfway strokes-gained stats lend weight to that idea. Jason Day leads off the tee, as a big-hitter who has been aggressive and hit six-in-10 fairways. Behind him, however, are players who simply don't usually compete in this category: Bo Hoag, Brian Stuard, Brian Harman, Chris Kirk, Branden Grace... even Jordan Spieth. Hoag hit 13 of 14 fairways in round two, Stuard did the same thing in round one, and it seems accuracy is still being rewarded here more than most places.
While we're on theories, another says that Westwood and Fitzpatrick will benefit from playing together in the final two-ball this evening. Given that they hail from near enough the same small part of a small country, and that Fitzpatrick's caddie, Billy Foster, was alongside Westwood when he reached the summit of the game, it makes sense although clearly they face a high-pressure situation on a penal golf course. Being able to chat merrily along the way is only worth so much.
If this all sounds like I'm uncertain, that's because I am. With a relatively calm day forecast and a strong front-end, which includes the likes of Kirk, Sergio Garcia and Sungjae Im, chances are that the winner is close to the lead in a tournament which has seldom seen one come from way off the pace. And yet there is real strength in numbers behind, with Day, Jon Rahm, even Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas all one explosive round away from forcing their way into things.
Despite five places being on offer in places, the outright market looks one to avoid, but personal preference would be for Im (12/1) and Kirk (16/1) at the prices.
I was tempted to side with Rahm at 11/10 to beat Garcia in the top Spaniard market, but a three-shot gap leaves little room for manoeuvre and, plainly, this is among Garcia's favourite courses. The fact he missed a putt of less than two feet on Friday would of course be concerning as to his prospects of following up his 2008 win, but he responded really well, birdied 18, and is strong enough to put it behind him and play 36 holes of solid golf regardless.
We have interest in the top South African market, where Louis Oosthuizen and Christiaan Bezuidenhout go off in pursuit of Dylan Frittelli. I strongly suspect one of them will get to him, hopefully Bezuidenhout who is the second part of a double with Alex Noren, comfortably the top Swede despite missing the cut.
Finally, if you do believe Westwood and Fitzpatrick will help each other along, you can back them at 11/4 and 100/30 respectively in Sky Bet's end-of-round leader market. Dutching them at evens is one to consider seriously: whatever the merits of the argument, I don't expect either to be far away heading into Sunday, and a final round that Martin Mathews will be able to assess in full on these pages.
Posted at 0830 GMT on 13/03/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
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