Jason Daniels is keen to take on the Scottish players who head the betting with a round to play in the Hero Open at Fairmont St Andrews.
Golf betting tips: Hero Open final round
1pt e.w. Matthew Jordan at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Jordan Smith at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pt e.w. Chase Hanna at 40/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3)
Heading into the final round of the Hero Open, the wind that picked up as the third round went on suggests we may be primed for another turn-up on the European Tour and the best policy has to be to take on the home favourites who lead the way.
Min Woo Lee came from tied fifth and three off the pace in the Scottish Open while last week Daniel Gavins sat in eighth, fully seven shots behind the lead, before the low round of the day combined with serious wobbles in front saw him steal a most unlikely victory. Somewhere inbetween all that, Justin Harding was six behind Nacho Elvira in Wales yet forced a play-off he perhaps should have won.
Take that alongside memories of Adrian Otaegui, who shot a final-round 63 here last season to overcome both a four-shot deficit and the higher-ranked Matt Wallace, a leaderboard that doesn't convince, and the near decade that has passed since a Scotsman won on home soil at this level, and the opportunity to oppose the front few is hard to pass up.
Grant Forrest was sublime in round three, making almost 150 feet of putts, and is looking to better a recent top-five in the Irish Open. The Scot has quality form at home as an amateur, but he hasn't shone in 10 or so events in Scotland at this level, often struggling with what can be a wild long-game.
With just one try from the final pairing on the Challenge Tour, he is far from exposed but it will be tough to follow up a round of 62, and he will do well to cope with the pressure on his short game in front of home crowds. At 3/1 despite there being 10 players within three, he has to be taken on.
Alongside Forrest in the final group will be Calum Hill, three times a winner on the Challenge Tour but yet to impress when in contention at this level.
Back in May he was third overnight in the Canary Islands Championship before a worst of the week 71 sent him home with 12th-place money, while a week later he returned in form to be second going into the final round at The Belfry, where another 71 sent him down to eighth. A reminder of how hard he is finding it came at Celtic Manor a couple of weeks ago when falling from 10th to 62nd after a Sunday 79.
There is a picture here and with the books asking for odds-on the above pair coupled, it's sensible to look elsewhere. Indeed, the best play might be as simple as laying the pair at around even-money and worrying less about who might come and disappoint the locals.
This is about the fixed odds though and I'll take three against the field.
Granted, JORDAN SMITH was shocking last Sunday once he bogeyed his fifth hole and admitted after that he simply fell apart mentally. However, he has shaken that off to again be in contention and it seems certain that he will fare better away from the pressures of leading. His tee-to-green play has returned over the last two weeks and it's possible this will simply be down to his mental fortitude again.
Twice on the front page in China, where he was never closer than at the finishing line, he has also closed at the British Masters at linksy Hillside, in Oman, Qatar, tricky conditions in Denmark and the Porsche European Open. Always good in the wind, the 28-year-old looks particularly comfortable this week with a couple of eagles on the card and is perhaps slightly longer than he should be because of last week.
Santiago Tarrio is in flying form having won twice on the Challenge Tour this year and with a worst of 16th that includes last week's top-15 in Northern Ireland when stepped up to this leve. The 30-year-old looks to continue a fine Spanish run at Fairmont with Santiago Luna winning the Senior Open here in about 1745 and, of course, Otaegui winning 10 months ago.
At just 4/1 though, he is passed over for one of his main Road to Mallorca rivals in CHASE HANNA.
Three years younger, the American has impressed with his tee-to-green game over the last couple of weeks, ranking inside the top-10 for strokes-gained approach and tee-to-green in Northern Ireland and second so far this week. As we say often on the @lostforewords podcast, if they were good at everything they would never be beaten, but his putting has been fine this week and he could have a lot of chances on Sunday.
Another on a fine run on the feeder tour with a runner-up in Brittany, sixth in Austria twice in the top-10 in Spain, he also contended at the Di-Data in South Africa, when finishing third to the future star Wilco Nienaber. Top-10 for the longer holes this week, he is seven-under for the first two par-fives so far this week, and could be one to make an early move.
Complete the trio with 25-year-old MATTHEW JORDAN for whom a breakthrough in Scotland would make plenty of sense.
Winner of the St Andrews Links trophy as an amateur, he played in the 2017 Walker Cup against one of the strongest USA sides of recent times before his first full year as a professional saw him lead the British Masters close to home at Hillside with an opening course-record 63, before finishing an excellent 15th.
After his first, and thus far only, victory in Italy at the lower level, he led halfway at the Dunhill Links before eventually finishing fifth on a leaderboard that was full of links specialists, so there's absolutely no doubt that this kind of golf suits him down to the ground as you'd think it would.
This year started very slowly but three top-20 finishes through June and July read well, especially as he gained places from rounds three to four at the Irish Open (35th to 12th) and in Scotland, when he was fancied to go well, eventually waking up to finish 18th from an overnight place outside the top 30. Two recent missed cuts are forgiven as these were down to poor opening rounds and he's bounced back strongly.
Despite being four-over for the first couple of holes combined, Jordan's birdie prowess sees him just three shots off a lead dominated by fellow non-winners and I much prefer his draw alongside Smith and the experienced James Morrison to that of the half-dozen in front of him.
Posted at 2005 BST on 07/08/21
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