Martin Mathews is back with a look ahead to the final round of the World Wide Technology Championship and he has three bets.
Golf betting tips: World Wide Technology Championship
1pt Russell Henley to go bogey-free in final round at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Henley & Harman to finish first and second in any order at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt e.w Collin Morikawa to shoot lowest final round score at 25/1 (Boylesports - 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
The players who chose to head across the border to Mexico for this week's stop on the PGA Tour have been rewarded with a week of perfect scoring conditions. A combination of a soft course and little to no wind made it a case of ‘go low or go home’ for the first two days and day three saw more of the same scoring-wise.
The man who has by far relished the conditions the most is Russell Henley and rounds of 63, 63 and 65 have seen him make his way to 22-under through 54 holes and most importantly open up a six-shot lead on the field heading in to Sunday.
A three-time winner on the PGA Tour, Henley has over recent years morphed into one of the best iron players out there, strangely, however, this has coincided with his putter, which was known as his deadliest weapon in his early years on tour, deserting him. It is this that has kept him from adding to the most recent of those wins, which came in Houston in 2017.
This week, however, everything has clicked, Henley ranks second in accuracy off the tee, 17th in GIR and, significantly, third on the greens. Basically, the 33-year-old, who is bogey free over the first three days, has been flawless.
With Henley’s two nearest challengers, former champion here Patton Kizzire and maiden Will Gordon, six strokes back and perfect scoring conditions expected again today, I am not going to even attempt to make a case to take the Georgia Bulldog on.
Granted, as we know strange things can and do happen in this game at times on Sundays, and Henley may well have not slept brilliantly last night with the sort of lead that can make it very difficult not to get ahead of yourself, but ultimately he is just in the ‘zone’ this week and I would be very surprised if he doesn’t close this out.
In fact, on the flip side of the coin, with conditions as scoreable as they are and with Henley completely dialled in, it is quite possible we will see for the second time this season a player go 72 holes bogey free on their way to victory. Tom Kim managed this feat at the Shriners a few weeks back.
I am sure this will be a target in Henley’s mind and I will start today's staking plan by chancing him at what I see as a pretty generous 11/2 from Sky Bet to go bogey free today.
Another market that catches my eye with the same firm is their first and second place ‘in any order’ combinations, with the duo of Henley and Brian Harman, available at 7/1, making the most appeal.
Harman will start Sunday in a tie for fifth on 14-under and two shots back of the duo in second place and one further adrift of Seamus Power in fourth.
The lefty, who has built himself a reputation as one of the grittier players on Tour, has been in solid form since the summer and what has been noticeable this year is when he’s been around the lead heading in to Sunday he has tended to really make it count.
If we go back to the beginning of the year he closed out the American Express with a 64 to finish fourth, while, more recently, rounds of 66, 66 and 67 on Sunday saw him post big finishes at The Travelers, The Open Championship and the Fedex St Jude Championship.
Meanwhile ,although not right in the thick of things, he posted a 64 on the final day at the Shriners to start his new season a few weeks back.
With Gordon having regressed this week since his opening day 62 and Kizzire playing in the final group for the first time in a long time, the in-form Power is the obvious danger here. However, the Irishman, with a hole in one, an eagle two hole out from the fairway and a holed bunker shot, had one of those dream days yesterday where everything went perfectly for him and more often than not you tend to find that kind of round is very hard to follow up.
Another who makes some appeal to make a run for second place is two-time defending champion Viktor Hovland, who perhaps with any realistic chance of the ‘three peat’ now having gone, will freewheel.
However, I just have a hunch that Harman, who knows that as one of the shorter hitters on tour he has to make the most of his opportunities when he gets them, will be the more motivated and I will take him to chase his fellow Georgia Bulldog home.
Finally, I will take a chance in the ‘lowest round four score’ and, with Boylesports offering seven places each-way and odds of 25/1, I will side with Collin Morikawa. The two-time major champion has been his normal solid self from tee to green this week, ranking third in accuracy and fifth in GIR, however his usual nemesis, the putter, has let him down on two of the days.
We saw on Friday, though, when he posted a 63, that when the putts do start to drop for Morikawa on this track he can easily go low. Having twice posted a 62 on Sunday last season to charge through the field, he has shown he does not lose interest when he’s not seriously in the mix on the final day.
Furthermore, he also ran into second place at Riviera back in the spring behind runaway leader Joaquin Niemman courtesy of a final day 65, again showing he’s partial to a final-day charge when the pressure is off.
Morikawa is just about close enough here that a really low one could see him push his way right through the field and into the runner-up spot, which of course would scupper our bet on the Henley/Harman one-two combination.
However, if he does produce that kind of performance and land us the outright 25/1 win in the low score market, then I will naturally take that on the chin!
So, it’s Henley to see out the win in fine style for me then, Harman to chase him home and Morikawa to produce the round of the day.
Preview posted 1000 GMT on 06/11/2022
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