Martin Mathew is back with a look ahead to the final round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship and he's got a 10/1 shot on the radar.
Golf betting tips: Bermuda Championship final round
2pts e.w. Aaron Baddeley to win Bermuda Championship at 10/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3)
Over in Miami this week those who have chosen to jump ship from the PGA Tour are competing for a slice of a financial pie that most of the players in Bermuda will not come close to accumulating in their full careers.
Once you put the money to one side, however, there is no doubt that with opportunities for veterans to reignite stagnating tour careers, or for rookies to produce a life-changing week, the sixth event of the new PGA Tour season in Bermuda is a compelling watch, even if the field lacks star power.
Played on a short par-71 course, for the first two days the coastal track's main defence - the wind - failed to appear but on Saturday, as the players jockeyed for position, the gusts picked up to 25mph+ and the players faced a true test.
Once the dust had settled on round three, the two men who had handled conditions the best were Seamus Power and Ben Griffin, and the pair will head into Sunday sharing the lead on 18-under par with a two shot cushion over the field.
Power, who arrived in Bermuda as the highest-ranked player in the field this week, has produced three consecutive rounds of 65 and it is his putter, particularly on Saturday, which has been the key to his success.
The Irishman, whose upbringing makes him more than comfortable in the wind, has struggled to find fairways with any great regularity this week, but with the rough here not penal at all, he has found more than his share of greens and the putter, with which he is ranked first for the week, has done the rest.
As we know, though, on Sunday the hole suddenly starts to look smaller and my hunch is that Power, due to his status in this field, may feel the pressure of this being an event he should now win. The 35-year-old does of course have one PGA Tour win to his name, the Barbasol in 2021, but this is his first 54-hole lead on tour, and I am in no rush to back him at the odds.
If this is new ground to a certain extent for Power, it has to be said it is completely unchartered waters for Griffin. A rookie on tour, Griffin earned his card largely due to three second-place finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, but he did not post a victory, with his one professional win of note coming in 2018 on the PGA Tour of Canada.
Having said that, the 26-year-old, who actually stepped away from the game completely for a period in 2021 before deciding to give it ‘one last go’, looked incredibly composed on Saturday, and with his ability to play the low ‘stinger’ under the wind, he went down in the notebook as someone to side with when it is expected to blow.
Third for the week in GIR and seventh in putting, if the Sea Island resident can keep his nerve today he could well bag that life-changing first win.
Ultimately, though, with the wind set to blow again and with nerves sure to play their part, I'm loathe to back anyone ‘win only’ at short odds today and instead I'll take my chances with one of the duo who start two behind on 16-under in third place, AARON BADDELEY.
Those who read my pre-event preview will know I liked Baddeley’s chances coming into the week, and reassessing the event with fresh eyes this morning I do feel that with the safety-net of three each-way places on offer, he represents the value bet.
A four-time winner on tour, it has been a struggle for the Aussie in recent years, however a string of solid performances over the past couple of months under the tutelage of a new coach have caught the eye and having Monday qualified into this week's event, he is making the most of his opportunity.
Like all Aussies, Baddeley is more than comfortable in windy conditions and it was noticeable how solid his iron play was on the tougher back nine yesterday in the difficult conditions, something the 41-year-old reflected on in his post-round interview, while also saying how he was hoping the wind would blow again today.
In fact, listening to him talk this week, and after Saturday’s round, it is clear Baddeley is really comfortable with where his game is at and his position here.
It is six years since Baddeley last tasted victory on Tour but that win at the Barbasol came on the back of a previous season which had seen him lose his full card and five years on from his third tour triumph, so we know that he can take a chance when he gets one, even when he has been struggling.
The first three years of this event have seen the winners come on Sunday from two back twice and four back, and all three of these winners - namely Brendan Todd, Brian Gay and Lucas Herbert - have shown that, even if it has been a while between drinks for some of them, previous winning experience has been the difference when it has mattered.
I’ll take Baddeley to show the same again.
Another rookie, the impressive Kevin Yu sits alongside Baddeley on 16-under and having closed out on Saturday with two birdies he will have his supporters. Again, though, this is completely new territory for him and at shorter odds than the Aussie, he is not for me.
On 15-under we find the 2020 champion here - Brian Gay - and having been on the veteran for this column when he triumphed here, I will admit I was tempted again. On that occasion, though, Gay who started that Sunday two back was available at 25/1, and with him now having turned 50 and mostly plying his trade on the Champions Tour where he is yet to win, I will warily pass him by on this occasion.
With the duo on 14-under of Greyson Sigg and Thomas Detry yet to win, as well my suspicion that this will be played out by those in the last couple of groups, Power is the obvious favourite to triumph but I'll take my chances that this event will again go to a more proven winner and that it will be Baddeley’s day.
Posted at 0930 GMT on 30/10/22
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