Matt Cooper is on hand with his Wells Fargo Championship final-round preview and he's got a couple of two-ball suggestions to consider.
Golf betting tips: Wells Fargo Championship final round
2pts Two-ball double: Justin Thomas to beat Corey Conners & Stephan Jaeger to beat Collin Morikawa at 100/30 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
2pts Two-ball single: Christiaan Bezuidenhout to beat Max Homa 6/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
No need to look beyond top two stars
It has always been pretty obvious that Quail Hollow is the neatest of fits for Rory McIlroy.
Fourteen years ago he announced himself to the PGA Tour with a stunning first victory on the circuit, making the cut by just the one shot before firing rounds of 66-62 to not just beat the field but more or less lap it.
Five years later he posted a Saturday 61 on his way to winning by seven and said: “There’s great flow to this golf course. It allows you to get out of your own way and I’ve got great memories here.” In 2019 he said: “I love this place. I even feel like I don’t even have to play that good and I can still get it round.” Two years after that he arrived in dreadful form and kind of proved himself correct by winning at the course for a third time.
Heading into this year’s final round Xander Schauffele leads on 12-under 201 but McIlroy closed to within one shot of him with a 67 yesterday. Sungjae Im is a further three shots back on 8-under, with Sepp Straka alone in fourth on 7-under. Fifth placed Jason Day is seven back of the leader on 5-under.
The sense of deja vu extends beyond Quail Hollow, providing a real echo of McIlroy’s victory in the 2014 BMW PGA Championship. Then, he was dealing with the fall out following the break-up of his relationship with Caroline Wozniacki. Now, he has spent the week discussing which boards and committees he is or is not sitting on, and the threat to his relationship with Tiger Woods. After the former he said: “When I got inside the ropes it was a little bit of a release – four or five hours of serenity or sanctuary.” It’s not difficult to believe that he’s getting similar vibes this week.
If the Northern Irishman prevails in the final round then the feelings of familiarity will be a lot less pleasant for Schauffele. On the one hand, he was second in this tournament last year. On the other, he led The Player Championship through 54 holes and didn’t convert. “I’m going to have to earn it tomorrow,” he said, “now I’ve got Rory breathing down my neck.”
Through 54 holes the leading pair’s stats are remarkably alike. Schauffele ranks third for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, second for Approaches and 11th for Around the Green. McIlroy ranks first, third and 14th in the same categories. Schauffele has hit 38 greens in regulation which has him first in the field, McIlroy has found one less which sees him tied second. The positions are repeated for Scrambling. It is on the greens that Schauffele currently has the edge: 15th against 30th in SG Putting.
The betting has Schauffele 10/11 which, with memories of his Sawgrass frailty and the knowledge that he’s in the process of making swing changes with a new coach, is not too enticing. McIlroy is 11/10 and an argument could be made for their prices being the other way around. It’s tempting but not enough.
Can Im or Straka chase them down? The Korean was in rotten form before finishing T12th at the RBC Heritage and he ended April with a trip home to successfully defend the WFG Championship on the Korean Tour. He’s best price 20/1. Straka carded a third round 67 and birdied four of his last six holes. He’ll need to keep the foot to the floor but he has previous. He won last year’s John Deere Classic, also one week before a major, with closing rounds of 63-65-62.
He’s also quite tempting but a lot needs to go his way.
Two-balls the way to play
Instead, we’ll stick with the two-balls.
First up we’ll take JUSTIN THOMAS against Corey Conners. The Canadian is ultra-steady and was eighth here last year. But Thomas won the PGA Championship on the course and has made four tournament top 30s. He’s also 5-for-5 at breaking 72 on Sunday, Conners is 1-for-3.
The clincher is that Thomas is rebuilding his confidence after a poor run of form, was fifth at the RBC Heritage and will want to ride that little wave into a PGA Championship in his home state of Kentucky next week.
We’ll add the form of Germany’s STEPHEN JAEGER over the current Sunday woes of Collin Morikawa. The latter’s last four final round scores read: 74-74-74-72.
Jaeger is quite capable of a big score himself but he can also go low, as when winning the Houston Open. Morikawa is thinking about things, Jaeger is playing free. Thomas is 10/11, Jaeger 5/4 and the double pays 3.3/1.
The second selection takes on Max Homa, who has a win and an eighth on the course, but South Africa’s CHRISTIAN BEZUIDENHOUT is a bit big at 6/4.
Since the end of last season, he’s picked up the nice knack of turning good weeks into much better ones with solid (or very good) Sundays. His last PGA Tour final round witnessed a 65 at Harbour Town and he closed out a venture to the DP World Tour last time out in the same fashion.
Posted at 1005 BST on 12/05/24
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