Martin Mathews has bagged four winners from seven events so far this PGA Tour season - get his take on the final round of the Houston Open.
Golf betting tips: Houston Open final round
2pts e.w. Jhonattan Vegas to win Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open at 8/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Martin Trainer to win Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open at 33/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4)
At a time of year when we are used most weeks to seeing the events on the PGA Tour won with scores of 20-under or so, the Memorial Park course in Houston is proving for the second year running to be a fantastic test of golf, and a wonderful addition to the Tour.
This time around even a Thursday morning deluge hasn’t prevented the course from playing tougher and tougher as the week has progressed and through 54 holes no one is able to better Scottie Scheffler’s three round total of 7-under.
Yet to win on tour, Scheffler will take the lead or share of it in to the final round for the second time in his PGA Tour career. On the previous occasion at the American Express in 2020 he posted a lacklustre 70 on his way to finishing third.
Despite not having won on tour yet Scheffler has become known as a player that can be relied on when conditions are tough, something borne out by his three top ten finishes in Majors last season, and this week after a poor opening day his long game has really come to the party, firstly in his course record 62 on Friday and again yesterday, and despite having lost shots to the field from tee to green on Thursday he now sits second for the week in this category.
If he can continue in this vain today and hole his share of putts, something he didn’t do yesterday, he will be tough to beat.
As a betting proposition this morning though with eight players sat within two shots of the Texan’s lead I have to be honest he makes little appeal at the odds and with four each way places on offer with most firms I would rather take my chances elsewhere.
So, where do we start with the chasing pack of Matthew Wolff, Jhonattan Vegas, Kramer Hickok, Keven Tway and Martin Trainer who all start one back on 6-under?
Looking at this list and the logical place to turn is to Wolff who has been playing some great stuff in the Fall events and looks to be trending towards another win.
If we look at his stats for the week though he is struggling with his approach play, losing shots every day and ranking a lowly 64th in this department and it his short game that has been keeping him going. On ‘wages day’ though when the pressure is really on I’m not inclined to risk that this side of his game will continue to bail him out.
Instead, then, the first of these chasers I will turn to is JHONATTAN VEGAS. A three-time winner on Tour Vegas has as much winning experience in the big league as the rest of the top six on tour put together and having posted three second place finishes last season he has certainly been knocking on the door of win number four for a while.
The Venezuelan’s long game has been sharp this week ranking first off the tee and fourth from tee to green so again, similarly to Scheffler, he just needs his regular nemesis the putter to behave, something, which it did on Thursday and to a lesser extent yesterday.
Based less than an hour away from the course Vegas has never performed well in his adopted home city however he has talked this week about how happy he is that the event has moved to Memorial Park and in an event that has been kind to Lone Star State based players over the years I am happy to chance him at the odds.
Of the remaining players on 6-under I can’t help but think that for Hickok to break through on a track this long everything would have to go perfectly for him while the bigger hitting Tway is another who has relied heavily on the putter this week.
Instead then for my second pick I can’t resist rolling the dice on by far the most intriguing player in the group on 6-under, MARTIN TRAINER.
Anyone reading this column will most likely know Trainer’s back story about, which there has been plenty written this week. To sum up Trainer has made only one of his last 18 cuts, and since winning in Puerto Rico in 2019 his best finish on Tour is 34th... a finish, which came at the Sentry ToC, a 34-runner event.
Add this to the fact that after a superb performance over the opening two rounds, which saw him gain over six shots from tee to green and just under five on the greens to take the 36 hole lead, he struggled on Saturday posting 74, and there is absolutely no reason to think he’ll do any more than fade away further today.
On the flip side though, Trainer is a player who has that undefinable X-factor that gives him that ability to win when in the mix.
His win in Puerto Rico came after he had started his rookie PGA Tour campaign with five missed cuts in eight events and no better than 28th, while the previous season he gained his PGA Tour card by posting two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in a campaign that saw him miss 11 out of 20 cuts and only post one other top ten.
Despite his struggles yesterday Trainer never looked overly flustered and he actually did well to limit the damage down the stretch in the way he did. Granted this bet comes with a the obvious risk that he could easily shoot 80, but my hunch tells me he wont and I am happy to risk him each way at what I see as somewhat dismissive odds for a proven winner.
The three players on 5-under will certainly fancy their chances and this could just be the day for long overdue and former Houston winner Russell Henley while those starting on 4-under will also feel they can make an impression.
On a course, though, which is producing Major Championship type scoring I feel, as we often see in the biggest events, that the winner will come from those right near the top and I am happy to focus on the players starting within one shot of the lead for my picks and sit back and enjoy what should be a fascinating final days action.
Posted at 1010 GMT on 14/11/21
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