Matt Cooper previews the final round of the John Deere Classic, where Brian Campbell is looking for his second win of the year.
Golf betting tips: John Deere Classic final round
1pt win Brian Campbell at 11/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, AKBets)
1pt e.w. Austin Eckroat at 25/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/4 1,2,3)
They are two very clear story lines heading into the final round of the John Deere Classic.
The first concerns the 54-hole leader Davis Thompson who is seeking to become the fourth golfer to successfully defend the title. Rounds of 68-63-67 have him on 15-under 198 but he’s not put distance between himself and a tight pack of chasers so has plenty left to do. Four of the last five winners of the title – including himself last year – had to go sub-65 to complete the win.
“Excited to go compete,” he said after the third round. “I feel like I’ve been working hard. I can’t really focus on last year. Just excited to be in this position again this year. Golf is a weird game. Feel like I was kind of trending last year into this tournament and obviously played well. This year kind of feels the same way.”
There is no doubt he was trending last year arriving off a run of 27-9-2. This year it has been a little more hidden (MC-25-34) but those latter two results included solid starts and good third rounds. He’s 2-for-2 at converting a solo 54-hole lead (last year and on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022) and he’s 2-for-4 with any kind of lead.
Stacked up behind him in a four-way share of second are David Lipsky, Emiliano Grillo, Brian Campbell and Max Homa. It is the latter who makes for that second story line.
In 2023 he reached number five in the world rankings, landed a sixth PGA Tour title and also won the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa. He was gun for USA in team matches and the fans loved him. But the form started to slip backwards in 2024 and this year went into freefall.
He missed five straight cuts before the Masters, bizarrely was T12 there, but has just one top 50 (and that was T30) in his seven starts since. He’s been through caddie changes, coach changes, equipment changes and phone changes (he’s dumped social media, understandably fed up at the clowns having a dig at the form book).
“Golf has just been very boring for me this year,” he said yesterday. “I haven’t had a whole lot of (in-contention) stress and you want to be stressed out. So I look forward to the butterflies in the morning. I look forward to the first tee shot. It’s just nice to get to feel that again. It’s been a while.”
Would a win vindicate the hard work, he was asked. “It would be awesome. I don’t really use results to determine how I look at my progress. I know I’m doing a lot of great stuff. Whether we play great or whether we play terrible tomorrow, I think taking what we’ve been doing this week and using that to go forward, I have a long career, so I plan to be in this position a lot more. It would be lovely to win, but that’s not exactly on my mind at the moment.”
He’s a threat if he can maintain that detached attitude and the work on his game holds up. Against that, this might be a step towards the next win rather than win number seven.
Lipsky has four wins around the world but none on the PGA Tour and nothing since 2020. Campbell was a shock winner earlier this year in Mexico and arrived off three rounds that needed at least 78 blows, but he was T12 at Deere Run back in 2017 and the tournament was his first start on the PGA Tour 10 years ago. Grillo was second on the course in 2022 and T19 in the US Open two starts ago.
Another quartet – Kurt Kitayama, Austin Eckroat, Seamus Power and Camilo Villegas – are three strokes back of the leader while another five at sharing tenth and four back. They might feel they have a chance because seven of the 22 winners at TPC Deere Run gobbled up at least four shots on the pre-final round pace-setter.
Thompson is available at 21/10 with Homa and Grillo both 5/1. They are all to be respected. Thompson clearly likes the course, Homa has class, Grillo is a PGA Tour winner. But each has pressure: Thompson to complete the double, Homa to maintain recovery, Grillo doesn’t win as often as he might.
So maybe taking aim at the top trio in the market is the way to go and Ben Coley’s pick Kevin Roy is among those three back so followers have him on-board.
I’m a little surprised to find myself quite liking BRIAN CAMPBELL at 11/1. He’s a University of Illinois alumni and has lots of family and friends out following him. “It’s just something about the atmosphere, the people, even the grass,” he said of the week. “Just putting and hitting off this grass reminds me of the college days. I always love coming to this tournament.” The form since the win has been hampered by all sorts of unlikely issues: “Flu, sickness, a couple of other injuries – so I’m excited to be back in contention.”
We’ll add AUSTIN ECKROAT who is just two shots back in that tie for sixth after rounds of 63-71-67. His early experiences of being in the hunt with 18 holes to go were solid. Twice on the Korn Ferry Tour he was top three and stayed there without winning. When he shared the 54-hole lead for the first time on the PGA Tour, at the 2023 Byron Nelson, he carded a 65 for second.
Last year he was clinical. Tied for the lead at PGA National he bounded three clear then, when one shot back in Mexico, he won by one. His form this year has been stodgy but he opened the recent Travelers Championship with a 62 and played well after a poor start last time out in Detroit. “I was in control of my ball,” he said after the third round. “Gives me good momentum going into Sunday."
Posted at 0924 BST on 06/07/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.