Martin Mathews assesses the state of play in the John Deere Classic, where leader JT Poston might be vulnerable.
Golf betting tips: John Deere Classic final round
2pts Denny McCarthy to win the John Deere Classic at 11/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win the John Deere Classic at 50/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3)
There is no doubt that a first glance at the field at the beginning of the week for the John Deere Classic failed to set the pulses racing in many a quarter, however as the week has progressed a fascinating event has unfolded, which is now set up for a Sunday shootout.
Leading the way as he has done since an opening 62 on Thursday is JT Poston, who sits on 19-under and with a three-shot lead.
Poston had telegraphed a return to form with second place at the Travelers last week and he has brought that momentum on to TPC Deere Run, where he is now in pole position to do what he did at the 2019 Wyndham Championship and win wire-to-wire.
Known mostly for his putting skills on his day, it has been his tee-to-green game which has been the key to his success as he ranks first in that department, gaining over 11.5 strokes on the field. Combine that with a solid putting week by his own high standards and it's little wonder he's been impossible to shift so far.
With Poston’s game in great shape and with a previous all-the-way win under his belt, layers are understandably giving little away this morning with a general even-money available. However hiss most recent experience of holding the 54-hole lead at last year's Barbasol Championship was a far less positive one and it is that which puts me off supporting him today.
On that occasion having started with the lead on Sunday, Poston was in the box seat coming down the stretch before going out of bounds off the 15th tee to make double-bogey, and then three-putting the 16th. He went on to lose a play-off to Seamus Power and that performance will surely be lurking in the back of his mind today.
On a course which is set up for low scoring and has seen two of the last four winners come from four back on the final day, the chasing pack will be very much fancying their chances and the one who marginally makes the most appeal to me this morning is DENNY MCCARTHY.
McCarthy is one of a trio of players who will start the day three shots back of Poston, with the other two being Scott Stallings and Emilliano Grillo, and while those two have been there and done it, the 29-year-old has looked like a winner-in-waiting for a while now and today might just be the day.
Known as arguably the best putter on the PGA Tour, McCarthy’s long-game has also been firing of late, and with his confidence sky high from his recent seventh at the US Open, as well as fifth at the Memorial before that, he looks primed to bag that first win.
This week he's carded rounds of 66, 65 and 66, making just one bogey along the way and ranking sixth from tee to green and fifth in approach play. If he can keep that consistency going and produce the type of putting day of which we know he's very capable, he's the sort to string together birdies and quickly reel in the front-runner with whom he's sharing a house this week.
The fact that McCarthy does not have the pressure of being in the final group is surely a positive and he has got a Korn Ferry Tour Championship win to his name, so at 11/2 he's the bet to complete his graduation.
It has been a long time between drinks for the other two players sharing second place, with the last of Stallings’ three wins coming in 2014 while almost seven years have elapsed since Grillo bagged the season opening event of the season on his first start as a full PGA Tour member.
Of the pair preference would have to be given to Sporting Life's 35/1 headline selection Stallings who, after qualifying to play in his home state US Open, took the positivity gained from that on to last week's Travelers where he signed off with a round of 63 for a top-10 finish. Over the final three rounds of that event, he carded the best score in the field so he's clearly at the top of his game.
My slight concern though is that performance is emblematic of how Stallings has been over recent years, posting high finishes from off the pace on a Sunday, and on the two occasions he has had a genuine chance heading in to the final round this season, he has faltered.
The one who catches my eye who could just make a big run from off the pace today is CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT and he's worth backing at a standout 50/1 with Sky Bet.
The South African starts six back on 13-under and will no doubt be looking slightly enviously at his fellow countrymen as they carve up the mega bucks elsewhere.
With three wins in the past three years though he has way more recent winning experience than the rest of those above him put together and with his iron play starting to fire yesterday I will wrap things up today by taking a chance on him at decent each-way odds.
Like McCarthy, Bezuidenhout has the potential to putt the lights out on any given day and after a frustrating Saturday, he might be rewarded for his patience with the required low score this evening.
Posted at 1030 BST on 03/07/22
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