Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of Dunhill Links at St Andrews
Jason Daniels expects Danny Willett to bag another high-profile European Tour win as the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship concludes on Sunday.
Golf betting tips: Dunhill Links final round
4pts win Danny Willett at 11/8 (BoyleSports)
1pt e.w Joakim Lagergren at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
Ah yes, the Great British weather. Nice to see you.
As seen at Royal St George's in July, a links course is only as good as its defence, and the zephyr that players experienced for The Open led to a relatively easy game of fairway and green finding. As the European Tour moved through Wentworth and arrived at St Andrews, I guess most golf pundits wanted players to work for their dough, and the weather over the last couple of days has made that wish come true.
Halfway through Saturday's third round, Tyrrell Hatton was trading at around 8/11 with the bookmakers. Three clear after around half-a-dozen holes, his game suddenly fell apart and, to be honest, there wasn't just one reason. Hatton's tee-to-green game totally left him, and while he fought to recover, there was too much pressure on his short game.
Carried by Shane Lowry for his only full point at last week's Ryder Cup, it was hard to weigh up how he was going to respond after some abject efforts over the last month, and while it wasn't a complete surprise that he led at halfway, nor was his closing 12 holes totally unexpected. Having won the event twice and thrown it away once, he now has three shots to find to make it an overdue hat-trick.
Whether the flight from the US played a part in his poor finish or not it's been great to see all of Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry in the mix at some stage and though Fleetwood has six shots to make up, Lowry finds himself right in the mix alongside Hatton.
One of the rare shining lights for Europe in Wisconsin despite only contributing a point, Lowry has crept into things as the week has progressed and was perfectly at home on the Old Course as the weather closed in. Nobody could knock his opening nine, nor the way he braved tough conditions coming home, but there's just a nagging doubt that this is a big ask on the heels of a Ryder Cup. It was days after Paris that Hatton let a massive opportunity slip, and Lowry may not have enough left in the tank despite being the preferred option of the two.
Where there's a Willett...
DANNY WILLETT's struggles meant he was nowhere near that Ryder Cup team but not for the first time, a big event has sparked him into life with a third-round 66 his best of the year. As Daniel Gavins finished in disastrous fashion, Willett's efforts were rewarded with a three-shot lead and he should be very difficult to beat from the front once again.
It didn't seem to matter that he used the favourable wind on the front nine, a pair of 33s on each half was pleasing in every way and he seemed in no real danger throughout - suddenly this is a huge opportunity to get his first win since the 2019 BMW PGA Championship. Having won that event after a missed cut and with a couple of his other victories coming after poor efforts, he isn't the easiest to read but he spoke very positively on Saturday, didn't mind the wind and rain, and looks extremely solid.
Having had a series of health issues this season, he seems encouraged about his recovery and also spoke fondly of his renewed relationship with caddy Jonathan Smart, who was alongside him for that famous Masters win five years ago.
I fancy we could see a decent run of form as he tends to play well in Spain and Dubai, and he can kickstart that here at a price I believe should be closer to even-money given that he's managed five wins from eight 54-hole leads. The Old Course has so often been a good one upon which to fend them off and Willett can celebrate his 34th birthday in style.
Sometimes looking too far back reaps little reward and while it's great to seek a potential big-priced charger, four of the last five winners in this event have led or joint-led overnight, with only Lucas Bjerregaard coming from outside the final group, from four behind, overtaking both Fleetwood and Hatton.
Gavins has to put behind him a dreadful finish, Jeff Winther is very hard to get over the line, youngster John Murphy is too inexperienced and those at nine-under are probably too far behind if history is any sort of guide.
That leaves either Richard Bland or JOAKIM LAGERGREN of those at each-way prices, and while there is full respect for the revived 48-year-old who shot eight-under at the home course, prices direct me to the more flamboyant player who has an excellent record in this event.
A victory a few weeks before his 30th birthday might give some credence to the 'peak' factor folk (Gavins won earlier this year at the age of 30), but either way his efforts here, in Portugal, Qatar and even his victory by the coast in Sicily tell us all we need to know.
Although nothing particularly stands out among his recent figures, Lagergren put up his best recent green-finding stat up at Wentworth, a final 27th place finish disguising that he was top-10 going into payday and giving him a quartet of respectable places in that event. It's in bad weather at that he shines though, and he certainly proved it with six unanswered birdies at his preferred Kingsbarns.
Winning from second place in Sicily, he lost in a play-off at Qatar having come from fifth place overnight, and he led all the way on the Challenge Tour at Galgorm Castle. Like Willett, there's an element of unpredictability, but now we know both are in good nick and playing at a course they love, the winner may well be one or the other.
Posted at 1900 BST on 02/10/21
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